Drought in Alabama, February 1 to 29, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1113 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 712 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

An area of high pressure at the surface will continue to settle
into the Tennessee Valley overnight. A mostly clear sky and calm
winds will allow for good radiational cooling once again. Expect
temperatures to fall back into to mid to upper 20s by early
Thursday morning. The main forecast concern for tonight is that
the clear/calm conditions along with any lingering residual
boundary layer moisture will create an environment favorable for
the development of patchy freezing fog, especially along/near
bodies of water. This fog would likely develop after Midnight and
linger through early Thursday morning. Given its patchy nature,
significant impacts are not anticipated, but motorists should
watch out for isolated slick spots on bridges on their early
morning commute (should this fog develop).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

A dampening mid-level ridge will shift across the local area and
into the southeastern CONUS Thursday morning, as a northern stream
trough begins to digs southeastward into the Great Lakes. The
combination of strengthening WSW flow aloft and light
southwesterly return flow in the low-levels will lead to a warmer
day tomorrow (with highs reaching the u50s-l60s), and a notable
increase in high clouds will result in warmer overnight lows (with
temps only falling into the mid 30s Friday morning). Conditions
will remain dry on Friday/Friday night, with periods of mainly mid
and high-level clouds continuing to spread across the region as
the amplifying northern stream wave spreads southeastward into the
Atlantic and winds aloft veer to NW. Although a surface wind
shift to NE is expected along the leading edge of a Canadian
airmass building into the Great Lakes (in the wake of the trough),
colder/drier air will remain displaced to our northeast, with
highs in the mid 60s Friday and lows in the 35-40F range Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

Afternoon Update: Reasoning outlined below for the extended
portion of the forecast remains valid this afternoon, with the
only feature of interest being a low pressure system that will
track to the south of the area late this weekend, bringing a
period of stratoform rain and gusty southeast winds Sunday-Sunday
night. As noted below, minor changes in timing of the rain can
still be expected as the forward speed of this system will be
reduced due to its path along the south side of an unusually
strong 500-mb ridge (for early February) centered across the Upper
MS Valley.

For most of the day Saturday, surface high pressure will continue
to dominate the area. During this time period upper level
troughing will develop across the SW and slowly begin its trek
east. An associated surface low pressure will develop in the Texas
Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Both the surface and upper level
low will push into the southeast Saturday during the day.

Current guidance still differs as to the track and timing of the
low. However trends have emerged over the last few model runs.
Rain chances have pushed back with with highest chances Sunday
into Monday. Models differ slightly on when the highest rain
chances will be seen, GFS favors daytime on Sunday while the Euro
favors overnight Sunday into Monday. Models however do agree with
the surface low pressure lingering in the southeast through the
day on Monday. Rain chances for this issuances are introduced
Sunday morning with medium to high rain chances through late
Sunday night. Low to medium rain chances remain for the entire day
on Monday before falling off late Monday night.

Sunny skies will likely return Tuesday as the low pressure pushes
into the Atlantic. Mild conditions with climatologically normal
temps will be present for the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at both terminals through the entire
TAF period. Light variable wind overnight will allow potentially
support freezing fog in the early morning hours. Confidence in fog
formation is low so it is not included in the TAF however we will
be monitoring should an amendment be needed.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RAD