Damaging Winds in Alabama, August 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
334 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Monday through Monday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The forecast for today remains on track and details on todays
severe can be found in the Mesoscale Discussion below.

After tonights storms, things will quickly dry out and a period of
drier weather will begin. The upper trough that has been parked
across the eastern US will begin to lift out as upper ridging
builds over the central US. A surface cold front will push
offshore tonight into Monday leading to lower dewpoints pushing
through the coast. No rain is expected Monday into Monday night.
Unfortunately it will remain hot for one more day as high
temperatures will likely climb into the mid to upper 90s. The good
news is with lower dewpoints the heat indices will not be as high
and it will not feel quite as oppressive as it has felt. No heat
products are expected for Monday. BB/03

.Mesoscale Discussion...
(Now through tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Primarily going to focus on the potential for some stronger
storms later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. This
mornings guidance has certainly thrown a wrench into the forecast
as not only will storms be delayed till this evening but also
questions in coverage and intensity seem to be holding back the
potential today. IT appears the main shortwave trough will enter
the area around 6 to 7pm at the earliest. Prior to that do not
expect anything in the way of storms as water vapor shows rather
deep dry air in place. The question will be when that shortwave
pivots through this evening into the overnight hours. The drier
air aloft is expected to move out some; however, enough will
likely be in place to make it difficult for storms to organize and
develop. Low level storm relative inflow looks to be on the lower
side which would support smaller updrafts that are more
susceptible to dry air entrainment and will require more
clustering to develop a more established updraft. With all that in
mind, storms look to be more isolated this evening than maybe we
previously suspected and will likely require a more robust kick to
get organized. Would really expect storms to survive a little
better along and east of a line extending from Butler Alabama to
Pensacola Florida, especially across interior south central
Alabama.

Now if we can get storms to sustain themselves, that dry air
mentioned earlier becomes a bigger issue. Dry air can help limit
storms but it can also promote more instability and stronger
downdrafts in storms. With that dry air in place and a little bit
of unseasonable shear associated with the shortwave trough, a
rather potent environment for mid August is in place. While storms
may be hard to come by, the storms that are able to intensify and
utilize this environment will have the potential to become severe
with time. Damaging winds will be the primary threat; however, do
not ignore the potential for some larger hail maybe in excess of
quarter size. The combination of a deep unstable profile,
especially in the hail growth zone, weak low level storm relative
inflow, the potential for undercutting/elevated storms behind the
advancing cold front and stronger deep layer shear provides a
rather impressive summertime hail environment for the central Gulf
Coast. If cells remain isolated then the hail threat may end up
being as substantial as the wind threat. Nonetheless while storms
may be hard to come by this evening, what storms that do develop
could pose a threat for a bigger severe threat than say your
normal summertime thunderstorm. BB/03

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

By mid August standards, an anomalous, rather strong front is
progged to settle southward over the northern reaches of the Gulf
mid-week. The front looks to actually bring a hint of "Fallish"
low temperatures Wednesday morning with the coolest numbers
dipping down into the lower half of the 60's and some 3 to 6
degrees below climo up along and north of US Hwy 84. The front
also brings a southward surge of lower dewpoints, bringing dry
days which will help to put a damper on the elevated heat stress
we have been dealing with for quite some time. Daily highs
Tuesday/Wednesday in the upper 80's to lower 90's look trend
closer to, or maybe a degree or two cooler than normal for much of
the area north of I-10. Along the coast, appears highs range a
few degrees above normal at 93 to 97, but the plus is lower
humidity values. /10

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The northern stream of the east coast upper trough begins to
dampen Thursday and Friday with 18.12Z global models maintaining
good agreement that a piece of the southern flank of trough will
develop into a closed upper low and slowly retrograde west across
the northern Gulf through the weekend. This will signal a return
of rain chances late in the week into the weekend, mainly across
the southern half of the area, as moisture rebounds on the east
side of the upper low. The increased rain chances and cloudiness
will help keep temperatures near normal levels. /10/34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

West winds will increase this tonight ahead of an approaching
front. Small craft should exercise caution over the Gulf waters
tonight as winds will increase to around 15 kts. Mariners will
need to be on the lookout for strong to severe storms progressing
from north to south into and through the marine area this evening
into the late night hours. The storms will carry the potential for
significant wind gusts. An offshore flow develops by Monday as
the front pushes offshore. No significant wind/wave impacts are
expected through Thursday. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  96  71  94  69  93  68  92 /  30  20   0  10   0   0  10  30
Pensacola   79  98  75  94  72  93  73  91 /  40  30   0   0   0  10  20  50
Destin      80  96  76  94  74  93  75  91 /  40  30   0   0   0  10  30  40
Evergreen   72  95  68  91  63  92  67  91 /  50   0   0   0   0   0  10  20
Waynesboro  73  95  68  91  64  91  63  93 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      71  92  68  88  62  88  66  88 /  30   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   74  97  69  94  66  95  69  93 /  40  20   0   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051-
     052-261>266.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ053>060.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-
     075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

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