Extreme Drought (D3) to Severe Drought (D2) continued throughout the month across north-central Wisconsin. The drought began over the summer with the worse drought conditions prevailing during September into October.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Extreme Drought (D3) to Severe Drought (D2) continued throughout the month across north-central Wisconsin. The drought began over the summer with the worse drought conditions prevailing during September into October. The worse drought conditions were reported across much of Oneida County into the northern half of Lincoln County and northwest Langlade County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 9:49 PM CST, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1049 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Main forecast concerns to center on temperatures, winds and uptick in fire weather potential. The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated high pressure over the Great Lakes, low pressure over southern Saskatchewan and a cold front that extended from southwest Manitoba southward through the northern Plains. Skies over WI were clear with clouds and a narrow band of precipitation over the Upper MS Valley. As the high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten between this high pressure and low pressure moving across the Canadian Prairie. While surface winds will remain light, winds just above the surface will reach 20 to 30 knots later tonight and have added LLWS to the RHI TAF as a result. Otherwise, another quiet night is expected with only some passing high clouds from the convection well to our west. Since winds will not be able to decouple, look for temperatures to not fall nearly as far as previous nights. Instead, min temperatures to range from the middle 40s to around 50 degrees north, to the middle 50s near Lake MI. Friday is looking like a warmer and breezy day across northeast WI as south winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph pull 8H temperatures to around +20C by the afternoon. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move east into southern Ontario with a weak cold front reaching the Upper MS Valley. As this is occurring, the upper-level ridge over the central Plains will be expanding to the north and east toward WI with 7H temperatures reaching +10C. Since these warmer temperatures aloft will provide a cap, better forcing with the shortwave trough to pass well to our north and lift from the cold front is weak, prefer to keep northern WI dry on Friday. There should be more middle and high clouds north compared to mostly sunny skies across central and east-central WI. Max temperatures to be in the middle 70s near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s inland. .LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Synopsis: As a cut off trough digs along the west coast, a beefy upper ridge over the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley this weekend will shift east of the Mississippi River early next week. The strong ridge will support well above normal temperatures, and possibly some record high temperatures late this weekend into early next week. The next chance of rain will occur late on Tuesday into Wednesday when a cold front crosses the region. Friday night through Saturday night...Shortwave energy will be moving across Ontario and Lake Superior on Friday night into Saturday, and push a weak cold front into northern Wisconsin. Arrival of above normal pwats and weak elevated instability (up to 500 j/kg of most unstable cape) could lead to a few showers and storms but severe weather chances will remain low. Temperatures and humidity will be creep up on Saturday and Saturday night. Highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees are expected, but some cloud cover and a breezy southwest wind could make it feel cooler at times. Rest of the forecast...With mid-level ridging centered overhead, very warm temperatures remain on track to build into the region from Sunday through Tuesday time period. Temperatures will likely range from the lower to upper 90s on Sunday and Monday, and from the upper 80s to middle 90s on Tuesday. These temperatures will likely approach or surpass record highs at some spots. A few temps could approach all time September records, but the latest indications are that they will fall a few degrees shy. Humidity levels will be remain moderate (middle 50s to middle 60s), but excessively high humidity doesn't seem to be in the cards. Though heat indices look to remain shy of advisory levels, the low RH may set up elevated fire weather conditions depending upon how fuels behave in the hot/dry weather. Dry air and resultant capping should keep the area dry despite the very warm airmass in place. The next chance of storms will arrive late Tuesday into early Wednesday when a cold front cross the region. Convective parameters would suggest a few strong storms are possible, but dynamics don't look particularly impressive so severe weather chances look low. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 VFR conditions will continue through Friday. Some middle or high clouds could drift into northern Wisconsin tonight as a weak disturbance moves across Upper Michigan. Low level wind shear is possible north of a AUW to IMT line overnight with southwest winds around 35 knots at 1200 feet and light south winds at the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Pressure gradient will tighten up between the departing high pressure and approaching trough, allowing winds to increase Friday afternoon/night. Warmer air pushing over the warmer waters won't create ideal mixing conditions, but still think gusts to around 25 kts are likely Friday afternoon into early Saturday. The persistent south/southwest winds will also build waves to 2 to 4 ft on the bay and to 4 to 7 ft on Lake MI. A Small Craft Advisory (and Beach Hazards Statement) will be needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 On Friday, relative humidity values look to drop into the middle 20s and 30s across locations away from the lake/bay, lowest in the sandy soil regions. The lower RHs and increasing winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. However, fuels do not reach criteria, thus no fire weather headlines will be issued. As the heat builds this weekend and we continue to dry out, additional fire weather concerns are possible. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for WIZ022-040-050. && SHORT TERM.....Kallas LONG TERM......MPC AVIATION.......RDM MARINE.........Kallas FIRE WEATHER...Kallas
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011930- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday High waves and strong currents could result in hazardous swimming conditions on Lake Michigan beaches Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. There is a small chance of thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday, but severe weather is not expected. Thunderstorms may also occur Tuesday into Wednesday. Near record high temperatures are expected across the region from Sunday through Tuesday. Those with outdoor plans during this period should prepare for the hot weather. Low relative humidity and gusty winds may lead to elevated fire weather conditions Friday, Sunday and Monday, especially across the sandy soil regions of central and north central WI. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed tonight. LMZ521-522-541>543-011930- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday Gusty south to southwest winds and building waves will result in hazardous conditions for small craft Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued. There is a small chance of thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday, and again Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions hazardous to small craft may also occur early next week. AK/MPC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Green Bay WI 901 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 WIZ035>037-045-010900- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Waushara- 901 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 ...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY... The combination of warming temperatures, low relative humidity and south winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will bring near-critical fire weather conditions to parts of central Wisconsin on Friday. Additional fire weather concerns are expected on Sunday and Labor Day as hot air moves into the region and afternoon relative humidity values drop into the 20s and 30s. Under these conditions, fires will start easily. Visit the Wisconsin DNR website and click on the appropriate county to view current burning restrictions.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe Drought (D2) was confined to the western third of Vilas County throughout the month. Lac Vieux Desert only reported 1.53 inches of rain, which was 40 percent of normal.
Extreme Drought (D3) across southern portions of the county expanded northward to cover the southern two-thirds of the county during the latter half of the month. The remainder of the county was classified in the Severe Drought (D2) category throughout the month. Rhinelander received 3.21 inches of rain, which was 92 percent of normal. However, it should be noted that more than half of the rainfall occurred after the 22nd.
During the month, Severe Drought (D2) was reported across the southwest third of Forest County. The remainder of the county was classified in Moderate Drought (D1) except across the very far north, where Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions prevailed.
Extreme Drought (D3) prevailed across the northern half of the county with Severe Drought (D2) over the remainder of the county through the 20th. Thunderstorms brought much needed rainfall during the last week of the month. By the 26th, only northeast Lincoln County remained in Extreme Drought (D3) with Severe Drought (D2) conditions over the remainder of the county except across the very far south where conditions improved into the Moderate Drought (D1) category. Merrill received 3.39 inches of rain for the month which was 88 percent of normal; however, more than half of the rainfall occurred after the 22nd.
Extreme Drought (D3) prevailed across the northwest quarter of Langlade County during the month. The remainder of the western two-thirds of the county was in the Severe Drought (D2) category, and the eastern third of the county was classified in Moderate Drought (D1) during the month. Thunderstorms brought much needed rainfall to portions of the county during the last week of the month. Antigo received 3.19 inches of rain for the month which was 94 percent of normal; however, nearly half of the rainfall occurred after the 22nd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1140841, 1140842, 1140843, 1140849, 1140858.