Drought conditions worsened into the Severe Drought (D2) category across portions of north-central Wisconsin by the middle of the month and continued into September.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Drought conditions worsened into the Severe Drought (D2) category across portions of north-central Wisconsin by the middle of the month and continued into September.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 9:28 PM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1028 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 Synopsis: Low pressure will continue to exit the region over the eastern Great Lakes through tonight, while a decaying cold front will sag into northern Wisconsin late this afternoon into tonight. On Tuesday, weak high pressure will settle across the region as a weak shortwave (currently over the northern Plains) moves across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sky & Precip: Convective clouds will continue to build over north-central WI within a weak moisture axis ahead of the decaying cold front. A few showers have developed over the hour and convective allowing models continue to generate isolated showers and storms within this moisture axis into the evening. Both the HRRR and RAP are under doing surface based instability (currently estimated at over 1000 j/kg). With temps approaching their convective temps early this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers/storms remain expected to develop and slowly move southeast before dissipating prior to reaching the Bayshore and the Fox Valley late this evening. Thereafter, clearing skies and light winds will promote ground fog formation, particularly where showers occur. Tuesday will generally be a quiet and seasonable late summer day with temps a few degrees above normal. A few convective allowing models generate light showers in a convergent area of far northeast WI late in the afternoon. However, forecast soundings show a significant cap between 10 kft and 15 kft, which will be hard for any convection to overcome considering the high cloud heights. Therefore removed precip chances. Temps & Winds: Used the best performing guidance for temps over the next 24 hours as the airmass changes little. Temps should therefore remain slightly above normal. Light north winds today will back to the northwest on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 An elongated upper-level high pressure to extend from FL to TX into the northwest CONUS by this weekend. A low amplitude flow across the northern tier of states will bring a series of shortwave troughs and cold fronts through the Great Lakes region with an assortment of precipitation chances. Timing of each system remains a challenge as models differ, thus making for a low confidence forecast. Tuesday night and Wednesday... Quiet conditions are expected Tuesday night with a very weak area of high pressure drifting through the area. Mostly clear skies will prevail for most of the night, although some high clouds may start to arrive toward daybreak over north-central WI from a system moving into the Upper MS Valley. A light west-southwest wind will begin to tap warmer air with min temperatures to range from the middle 50s north-central WI, to the lower 60s east- central WI. Models continue to advertise two separate shortwave troughs moving east across the e-central CONUS. One trough is forecast to move from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley, while the second trough moves from the Canadian Prairie into southern Ontario/northern Great Lakes. Strong mid-level forcing to stay north or south of northeast WI, however a cold front will be sagging south through the forecast area through the day. Despite peak heating, instability is marginal at best with SBCAPES < 200 J/KG. There is pretty strong shear present (35-45 knots), thus any storms that can develop may become locally strong with gusty winds. Have kept pops in the chance category for now with higher values across the north where stronger shear to be present. Max temperatures to be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees north, middle to upper 80s south. Wednesday night and Thursday... Chance pops will need to be carried over through at least Wednesday evening as the cold front and both shortwave troughs to still be in the process of exiting the area. Skies should then begin to clear from northwest to southeast with a push of CAA behind the front. Min temperatures Wednesday night to be in the lower to middle 50s (a few upper 40s possible in our typically colder spots), middle 50s to around 60 degrees south. Northeast WI to reside between systems on Thursday and with little evidence of any forcing mechanisms, have kept the day dry under partly cloudy skies. Max temperatures to be a bit cooler behind the cold front with readings in the middle to upper 70s north/near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s south. Thursday night and Friday... Clouds will be on the increase Thursday night as the next cold front/shortwave trough move southeast from the Canadian Prairie into ND/Upper MS Valley. A push of WAA ahead of this system could already bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms into northeast WI after midnight. This system will move into the Great Lakes on Friday with sufficient lift/forcing/moisture present to bring a good likelihood of showers/thunderstorms to the forecast area. Severe potential looks limited based on the current timing of rain late Thursday night into Friday. If this system were to slow down, then we would need to re-evaluate the situation. Max temperatures on Friday to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s north, middle 70s to around 80 degrees south. Friday night and Saturday... Precipitation chances could linger through most of Friday night depending on the exact timing of the system. Anticipate mainly just showers by this time as better lift/instability to have shifted east. There is a concern for small precipitation chances returning to northern WI on Saturday as a cyclonic flow and weak shortwave to be in the vicinity. Any precipitation appears to be on the light side. Otherwise, generally partly sunny skies are expected on Saturday with max temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s north, middle to upper 70s south. Saturday night through Monday... Forecast confidence is rather low by the start of next week as model timing of subsequent systems diverge quite a bit. Some models bring precipitation chances on Sunday, others say Monday. Due to this large spread in timing, have deferred to the consensus solution which brings small chance pops to the forecast area for both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures would be close to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 An isolated shower is still possible across northern Wisconsin through 06z, otherwise patchy fog will be the main concern. The greatest potential for for will be across northern Wisconsin where CIGS/VSBY's may fall into the MVFR/IFR or lower category. Any fog should burn off by 14z Tuesday. Fair weather cumulus will develop late tomorrow morning and continue into early Tuesday evening between four and six thousand feet. For the KMTW TAF site, have the northwest winds veering southeast by 21z with lake breeze. Northwest winds are expected to gust to 15 knots into mid afternoon before becoming light and variable around sunset. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kallas AVIATION.......Eckberg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 900 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-090200- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 900 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Patchy fog could restrict visibilities for motorist across northern Wisconsin late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The risk of severe thunderstorms is low at this time. There is a also a chance of thunderstorms at times from late Thursday night into Friday evening. It is too early to discern any severe weather potential at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed tonight. LMZ521-522-541>543-090200- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 900 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. There is also a chance of thunderstorms on Friday into Friday evening. Any storms could pose a hazard to mariners. Eckberg
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions developed across portions of south-central and northwest Vilas County by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions developed across the western half of Vilas County at the beginning of the month, then expanded across much of the rest of the county during the latter half of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions developed across most of the county at the beginning of the month, then expanded into the far southern part of the county by the end of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions developed across the northwest half of the county at the beginning of the month and continued into September.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1139671, 1139681, 1139684, 1139688.