A prefrontal trough formed several discrete supercells that resulted in damaging straight line winds in southwest Virginia.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A prefrontal trough formed several discrete supercells that resulted in damaging straight line winds in southwest Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 11, 6:37 PM EST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 737 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 1. Showers and storms will sweep across the area this afternoon/tonight, and some of the storms may be strong to severe. 2. Drier and cooler air moving in Monday behind the cold front. Discussion: Currently we have low pressure centered over southern Illinois with a trailing cold front into the southern Plains. A stubborn warm front is finally moving north through our southwestern counties. An upper low is digging into the Great Lakes region, and as it does the surface low will move NE, dragging the cold front through our area later tonight/very early Monday. A prefrontal trough will be the focus for convective development to our west this afternoon, and these showers and storms are expected to organize into a broken line and move east into our area this evening/early tonight. In addition, we will likely see more scattered showers/storms out ahead of the main line as the warm front pushes further north and the atmosphere destabilizes. We are starting to see some thinning of the clouds, and most guidance suggests that the warm front will continue to move north at least through our central counties allowing convective energy to increase especially across central/southern/western portions of the area. There is enough shear to support supercellular structures in the storms this afternoon/evening, and a tornado cannot be ruled out especially west/south. However, it still appears the more significant severe threat will be damaging straight line winds and possibly large hail. Also, localized flooding may occur especially if any areas see repeated storms over the same location. The convection will diminish to just some showers later tonight before ending Monday. Drier air will be moving in, with increasing sunshine in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday will be well below seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Key Messages: 1. Stalled frontal boundary to our south will provide next chance for rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly focused in the southern TN valley. 2. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday before another potential system over the weekend. Discussion: Broad scale upper trough over the Great Lakes kicks off the extended period. Cool airmass left behind the earlier cold front and low heights from the upper trough will contribute to another unusually mild morning and afternoon on Tuesday. A front will stall near our region, with exact placement crucial for rain chances Tuesday through Wednesday. If the front is too far south, we might miss out on rain completely. For now, the NAM, GFS, and Euro all run scattered showers and storms along the southern TN border overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble means have been trending the last few runs southwards with the total rain swath, lending further support to the southernmost portions of Tennessee having the best chance for rain. Thursday into Friday northwesterly synoptic flow likely means rain chances will be fairly limited, outside of a potentially diurnal storm. GFS soundings for Thursday look rather dry with strong mixing in the boundary layer, could be difficult to get any shower to form and precipitate to the surface. Friday has slightly better support for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Next chance for more widespread showers will be over the weekend with a shortwave trough sliding across the Midwest bringing increased rain chances to our area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Scattered severe storms continue to enter the area from Middle TN and will continue through the evening and overnight hours before ending early Monday. Kept the highest probability for T-storms in Tempo groups for each site, mainly between 00z and 05z. MVFR conditons expected overnight, but could deteriorate in a thunderstorm. Some showers will linger into the early morning hours before tapering off west to east. Cloud cover will begin to break apart through the day Monday, and the remainder of the period will be dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 79 58 76 / 90 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 77 56 74 / 100 20 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 77 53 74 / 90 10 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 75 52 74 / 100 50 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....Wellington AVIATION...Williams
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-121900- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 /157 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight. The strongest storms will be capable of producing straight-line winds in excess of 60 mph, and hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. There is also a low risk of a brief tornado, mainly over and near the Plateau and across the Southern Valley. Localized flooding will be possible, mainly in areas that see multiple heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed on Sunday and Sunday night.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
735 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM Hail 1 NW Spring City 35.69N 84.87W
06/11/2023 M1.50 inch Rhea TN Public
Quarter to ping pong ball sized hail
reported along Highway 68.
&&
NWThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:13 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down by severe thunderstorm winds along Baileytown Road.
Several trees were knocked down by severe straight line winds just west of Pennington Gap.
Tree was blown down by severe winds along Balls Chapel Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1101395, 1101396, 1101397.