A strong high pressure ridge aloft brough unseasonably hot weather to much of North and Central Texas during the first week of September 2023.
Every event with a place to put it; 37 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A strong high pressure ridge aloft brough unseasonably hot weather to much of North and Central Texas during the first week of September 2023.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 7, 5:26 PM CST, 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 626 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ A strong mid level ridge centered over West Texas will continue to provide extreme heat across the region through the end of the week. An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect through Friday for areas along and west of a line from Sherman to Centerville, with a Heat Advisory immediately to its east. New record high temperatures have been set at both Waco and DFW once again today, and there is a good possibility that they will be reached again on Friday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible across East and Central Texas through sunset, but most locations will remain hot and dry. Better storm chances will arrive Friday afternoon and evening as a shortwave disturbance rounds the eastern flank of the ridge. This disturbance will drop south through the Arklatex region, dragging a weak cold front southward to near the I-20 corridor. The combined forcing from the upper level feature and surface front will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best storm chances being east of the I-35 corridor (farthest from the center of the ridge). Slight chance POPs will still extend well west of I-35, with isolated storms possible as far west as the Big Country. The biggest concern with the stronger storms would be damaging downburst winds due to the exceptionally hot airmass in place and the likely "Inverted V" tropospheric profile. The rain, however, would be much needed, and hopefully the front and associated convection will be just the beginning of relief from the record heat. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 204 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023/ Update: Minimal changes to the previous forecast were necessary with this update, and the highly anticipated pattern change continues to be the main focus of the long-term period. The primary change to highlight is the potential for additional showers/storms late Friday night into early Saturday morning. The best potential appears to be east of I-35 at this time. Sufficient deep layer shear and the presence of elevated instability will result in a threat for damaging winds and hail with any stronger storms that develop. Otherwise, a hot weekend is still on tap, though temperatures will largely remain below the century mark and much closer to seasonal values. Scattered storms will be possible throughout the weekend, but more meaningful rain chances along with much cooler temperatures will arrive next week. Barnes Previous Discussion: /Friday Night through Wednesday/ After a very hot day Friday, scattered convection should be ongoing by evening mainly east of I-35 as our strong mid level ridge begins to flatten and shift westward. A shortwave trough moving through the Mid South and a weak backdoor frontal boundary should be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development during this time with outflow spreading westward through the evening hours. Strengthening northwesterly flow around the periphery of the ridge and the lingering frontal boundary will support renewed convection during the day Saturday across most of Central and North Texas. Saturday will still be a warm day, but we'll start to see our first effects of more persistent troughing through the central CONUS as temperatures top out in the low/mid 90s across the east with reading still near 100 out west. Temperatures will fall further Sunday and into next week as additional disturbances round the periphery of the upper ridge to our west and generate cloud cover and additional storm chances. A stronger shortwave is expected to spread through the Southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday and will be accompanied by a more pronounced cold front. Rain chances are expected to be highest during this time with PoPs in the 40-60% range. Highs will top out in the mid/upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday with medium range guidance suggesting rain chances continuing into the latter part of the week. Probabilities are increasing that we'll actually see some widespread beneficial rainfall through the latter part of next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Light south winds will shift to the southwest for a brief period Friday morning, then back to the southeast Friday afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on a potential MCS which may form overnight and drop southeast through the Arklatex, as it could produce outflow which might get close to the Metroplex around 15Z. Confidence in a brief wind shift is too low to include in the TAFs at this time, but will keep an eye out tonight. Thunderstorm chances will arrive Friday afternoon and evening as a weak cold front and upper level disturbance move in. VCTS has hence been added at 09/01Z in the extended portion of the DFW TAF. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 106 78 99 75 / 0 20 40 30 10 Waco 80 107 78 102 73 / 5 20 20 50 30 Paris 75 98 71 93 66 / 10 40 40 20 5 Denton 78 107 74 98 70 / 0 20 40 30 10 McKinney 78 104 74 96 69 / 5 30 40 30 10 Dallas 83 107 78 98 75 / 0 20 40 30 10 Terrell 78 104 74 98 69 / 5 30 40 30 10 Corsicana 81 107 78 98 73 / 5 20 30 40 20 Temple 78 108 77 102 73 / 5 10 20 50 30 Mineral Wells 78 109 75 103 71 / 0 10 30 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>093- 100>104-115>121-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ094-105-122-123-135- 148. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106-107. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081300- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may affect parts of Central Texas this afternoon. Lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats. Excessive heat continues with highs between 100-108 degrees across the region. There is an elevated threat for grass fires, especially along and west of I-35 through this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Heat will continue on Friday with temperatures and heat indices between 100-110. The grass fire threat will continue through Friday, especially west of I-35. There is a chance for thunderstorms each day beginning Friday through late next week. Some storms could become severe on Friday, with gusty winds and hail expected to be the main threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
37 excessive heat. Local standard time, as filed.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
Temperatures reached or exceeded 105 and/or heat index values reached or exceeded 110 each afternoon across the county on September 7 and 8 2023.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142955, 1142956, 1142957, 1142958, 1142959, 1142960, 1142961, 1142962, 1142963, 1142964, 1142965, 1142966, 1142967, 1142968, 1142969, 1142970, 1142971, 1142972, 1142973, 1142974, 1142975, 1142976, 1142977, 1142978, 1142979, 1142980, 1142981, 1142983, 1142984, 1142985, 1142986, 1142988, 1142989, 1142990, 1142991, 1142992, 1142993.