Drought in Texas, September 26 to 30, 2023

Name: Drought in Texas, September 26 to 30, 2023
Start: 2023-09-26T00:00
End: 2023-09-30T23:59
Location: Texas

September 26 to 30, 2023 · NWS BRO · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

The somewhat wet benefits from Tropical Storm Harold on August 22nd-23rd, 2023, were erased in Willacy and Kenedy County by the end of a record-hot September in these areas, when monthly rainfall averaged 10-25 percent of average for the wettest month on average of the calendar year. Severe (D2) conditions arrived on September 26th and continued into early October.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 11:50 PM CST, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 25, 11:50 PM CST, 10 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

A shortwave embedded within the north to northwesterly mid-level
flow aloft, pre-frontal surface trough ahead of a stalling cold
front and above average PWATs between 1.6 to 2 inches support the
chance for isolated to scattered convection to enter the ranchlands
tonight and spread across the remainder of Deep South Texas from
Tuesday into Tuesday night. 12Z HREF guidance members generally
support this notion and indicate that the sea breeze boundary on
Tuesday could help provide additional focus for activity over the
inland portions of the coastal most counties. While the greatest
parameters for isolated severe weather generally holds farther
north, deep layer shear and instability with MLCAPE values between
1000 to 2000 J/kg may support a few strong storms that could be
capable of gusty winds, locally heavy downpours and frequent
lightning.

This afternoon host the hottest temperatures with afternoon highs
reaching or exceeding 100 degrees for most while upper 80s and 90s
trend for the coastal regions. Despite the front will be stalling
out across the region, the increased moisture and cloud cover will
help yield to a slight decrease in high temperatures across the
region where highs settle in the mid to upper 90s for most. Humid
and warm conditions are expected at night with overnight lows that
range from the low to upper 70s inland and into the low 80s along
the immediate coast. Heat index values will be expected to stay
below 110 degrees for the short term, heat advisories are not
expected to be necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

A westward shift in the persistent mid/upper level ridge over
Northern Mexico will open the door (or at least a small window)
to daily precip chances across portions of Deep South Texas
through the end of the week, possibly into the weekend. While most
of this activity will be associated with the sea breeze, the
aforementioned weak frontal boundary associated with Tuesday's
convection will linger through the period and act an additional
source of lift for isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The highest PoPs (around 30-40 percent) will
reside along and east of US-281 and over the Gulf waters, but
isolated convection over the Rio Grande Plains cannot be ruled out
especially with any residual boundaries over the region. Locally
heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds cannot be ruled
out with any stronger thunderstorms. Precip chances look to
decrease heading into the weekend as ridging builds overhead.

Otherwise, slightly above normal temperatures are expected with
highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat indices should
remain below Heat Advisory criteria despite slightly higher dew
points as the influence of the ridge remains to our west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the morning at
all TAF sites. Tuesday afternoon some isolated to scattered
convection is possible, with greater likelihoods at HRL and MFE.
Winds are forecast to be light and variable tonight, with a
northeasterly wind shift Tuesday afternoon along the seabreeze.
Skies remain mostly clear overnight with an increase in cloud
cover possible Tuesday afternoon with any convection that forms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Now through Tuesday night...Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will be expected to persist over the Lower Texas
coastal waters as the pressure gradient stays quite relaxed with
the approach of a pre-frontal trough and/or front from the north
from the overnight through Tuesday. These boundaries are to yield
to a northerly wind shift and opportunities of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may become
higher in and around thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Sunday...Light to moderate east to southeast
winds and low to moderate seas. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day. Light to moderate onshore
flow and wave heights between 2 to 3 feet, with 3 to 4 feet
possible by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 76overnight 96 76 95 / 20 30 10 40 HARLINGEN 73 96 72
96 / 20 30 10 40 MCALLEN 76 98 75 98 / 20 30 10 30 RIO GRANDE
CITY 76 99 73 99 / 30 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 88 / 30
40 20 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 93 74 92 / 20 40 10 40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...60-BE/63-KC

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Willacy

When: September 26, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Willacy forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.477, -97.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought arrived in Willacy County on the 26th of September, as positive effects from 1 to nearly 3 inches of rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Harold dried up in the record heat and low monthly rainfall (10-25 percent of average). Conditions covered all of western Willacy, and the northern third, including Raymondville, La Sara, and San Perlita.

Drought, Coastal Willacy

When: September 26, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Coastal Willacy forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.477, -97.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought arrived in northern Coastal Willacy County on the 26th of September, as positive effects from 1 to nearly 3 inches of rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Harold dried up in the record heat and low monthly rainfall (10-25 percent of average).

Drought, Willacy Island

When: September 26, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Willacy Island forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.477, -97.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought arrived in northern portion of the Willacy County barrier island on the 26th of September, as positive effects from 1 to nearly 3 inches of rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Harold dried up in the record heat and low monthly rainfall (10-25 percent of average).

Drought, Inland Kenedy County

When: September 26, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Inland Kenedy County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Beneficial rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold, which tracked through Kenedy County on August 22 and dropped between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall, was all dried up by the end of September. By the 26th, Severe (D2) Drought had covered all but the northwest sliver of the county, courtesy of 10-25% of rainfall in the wettest month of the year, and record to near-record searing heat.

Drought, Coastal Kenedy

When: September 26, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Coastal Kenedy forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Beneficial rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold, which tracked through Kenedy County on August 22 and dropped between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall, was all dried up by the end of September. By the 26th, Severe (D2) Drought had covered all of Coastal Kenedy County, courtesy of 10-25% of rainfall in the wettest month of the year, and record to near-record searing heat.

Drought, Kenedy Island

When: September 26, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kenedy Island forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Beneficial rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold, which tracked through Kenedy County on August 22 and dropped between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall, was all dried up by the end of September. By the 26th, Severe (D2) Drought had covered all of the barrier island, courtesy of 10-25% of rainfall in the wettest month of the year, and record to near-record searing heat.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, September 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142796, 1142797, 1142798, 1142799, 1142800, 1142801.