Despite large scale subsidence behind a departing upper level short wave trough and a cooler post frontal airmass, a single isolated severe thunderstorm developed in the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. Modest upslope flow in the post frontal air mass allowed a thunderstorm to develop along the edge of the caprock near Palo Duro Canyon State Park.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Despite large scale subsidence behind a departing upper level short wave trough and a cooler post frontal airmass, a single isolated severe thunderstorm developed in the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. Modest upslope flow in the post frontal air mass allowed a thunderstorm to develop along the edge of the caprock near Palo Duro Canyon State Park. This thunderstorm tracked to the southeast across the Rolling Plains producing several severe wind gusts and hail up to golf ball size.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 24, 5:41 PM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 641 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Will run with a quiet forecast for the short term portion this afternoon. A weak cold front has moved south of the forecast area with convective initiation along it later today expected to remain south and east of the forecast area. There is a minor signal for isolated thunderstorm development in or near the mouth of Palo Duro Canyon associated with modest upslope flow, but the scenario does not look very likely on the face of it. Add in some subsidence behind an upper level short wave trough exiting the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and this potential looks even more unlikely. Will handle with silent PoPs near 10 percent for this possibility. Not much change then expected during the day Monday. Fair weather expected again under northwesterly mid to upper level flow and with modest northeast to east surface flow. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 A blocking pattern is still expected to continue Tuesday into late Wednesday across the Midwest/Great Lakes while upper flow over the FA will be broad ridging. Models continue to develop terrain induced convection across southern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Some models continue trying to bring some of this convection into our western zones by late Tuesday evening. Weak upper flow will make it difficult for convection to make it into the FA before being cut off by outflow. There is a low chance that a weakening shower/thunderstorm could cross the Texas/New Mexico state line before fully dissipating. A mention of slight chance has been maintained immediately along the state line. The upper ridge will begin moving eastward late Wednesday as the blocking pattern breaks. An amplifying upper trough across the Pacific Northwest will help to put the FA under southwesterly upper flow. The upper trough is progged to become a closed low as it continues to dig southward going into the weekend. Models, mainly the GFS, continue to hint at some convection this weekend ahead of the upper trough, but timing between models differ by nearly 24 hours. The GFS is the most bullish and earliest of the models with convection developing across the region Friday evening/night. The ECMWF delays until Saturday evening/night. One cause is the GFS has a stronger upper level system. The GFS has been more consistent than other models as of late, therefore a slight chance of precip has been added for Friday evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period at all three TAF sites. There is a small potential for some low stratus to move into LBB early tomorrow morning for a brief period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...11
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 TXZ021>044-250815- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. While widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected, the strongest storms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and localized heavy rainfall.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:37 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Northfield measured wind gusts of 59 mph from 1938 CST through 1939 CST.
A local emergency manager in Cottle County reported hail ranging from quarter size to golf ball size approximately six miles to the west of Paducah along US Highway 62.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Paducah measured intermittent severe wind gusts from 2024 CST through 2030 CST. A peak wind gust of 62 mph was measured at 2026 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1125332, 1125336, 1125338.