Texas, 2023

Excessive Heat and Heat in Texas, September 22 to 24, 2023

September 22 to 24, 2023 · NWS CRP · 11 events in 6 counties and zones

The final days of this abnormally hot summer lasted until the last day of summer into the first days of autumn. Afternoon heat index values ranged from 110 to 114 degrees over the Coastal Bend on the 23rd and excessive values from 115 to 118 degrees on the 24th.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 11 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
11

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.

The final days of this abnormally hot summer lasted until the last day of summer into the first days of autumn. Afternoon heat index values ranged from 110 to 114 degrees over the Coastal Bend on the 23rd and excessive values from 115 to 118 degrees on the 24th.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 11:50 AM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 22, 11:50 AM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect for the Southern Coastal Bend
- Isolated thunderstorms possible through the day

GOES Nighttime Microphysics this morning reveals some pockets of low
level stratus spreading across the Coastal Plains. It's possible we
see some patchy fog develop through sunrise, generally across the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. GOES TPW imagery is picking
up on a swath of deeper moisture (~1.8" PWATs) draped along the
coast and over our waters. Streamer shower activity is beginning to
develop within this axis of deeper moisture and is expected to
continue through the morning hours. As we head through the day,
upper level ridging will shift west leaving us with northwesterly
flow aloft. A shortwave looks to rotate around the periphery of the
ridge through the day but the best lift should remain to north.
However, there may be enough support to enhance some additional
convective development along the sea breeze. Recent CAM guidance is
hit or miss with inland development today so have leaned towards
the HREF solution with a 20-30% chance across the Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads. Any convection that does develop will wane
this evening with the loss of day time heating. Similar to last
night, patchy fog will be possible across the Coastal Plains
closer to sunrise.

More of the same is expected on Saturday. PWATs remain in the 1.7-
1.9" range which may lead to some isolated activity closer to the
coast but without much upper level support, most will stay dry.

Increased moisture today will allow for heat indices to climb into
the 110-114 range this afternoon. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in
effect for Kleberg, Nueces, and San Pat counties. Heat indices from
105-109 can be expected outside of the Advisory area. Similar
conditions are expected on Saturday with heat indices back in the
110-114 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Key Message:

 - Increasing rain chances next week with an approaching cold front

Quiet start to the long term with rain-free conditions expected
Saturday night through Sunday night as the mid-level ridge over
Central Mexico holds strong. Could see maximum heat index values
flirt near that 110 mark over the southern Coastal Bend on Sunday. A
mid-level trough passing into the Great Plains from the Rockies will
be accelerated by a closed low over Minnesota and continue eastward
across the Midwest into the eastern CONUS next work week. This
feature will likely bring a cold front through portions of Texas but
the main considerations are how strong and how far south will this
front push?

The CMC is the most aggressive southward push of the cold front, as
usual, surging the cold front through South Texas Tuesday morning
with northerly flow persisting through Friday. The ECMWF is less
progressive but the wettest solution with a pre-frontal wind shift
Tuesday morning and the cold dissipating and meandering across South
Texas through Friday. Lastly, the GFS is the least aggressive with
the cold front dissipating north of South Texas over the Hill
Country but still maintains rain chances with moisture pooling.
Although winds may shift north-northeasterly in these solutions,
equivalent potential temperature shows the actual front and
different air masses more clearly.

The strength and position of the cold front plays a major role in
the precipitation chances Monday through Thursday. As mentioned
before, the ECWMF is the wettest with the dissipating boundary and
greatest moisture convergence. The CMC is the driest due to the
strong push of the cold front bringing drier air in its wake over
the area. The GFS contains near the same enhanced moisture the ECMWF
projects with PWATs 1.75-2.0" (75th percentile) but lacks the lift
support. The CMC is extremely aggressive with these fronts,
especially at this time of the year, so will not be considering its
solution. Bringing in a combination of the ECENS and GEFS results in
a 30-45% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday,
then decreasing Wednesday and Thursday as model agreement and
confidence decreases.

Good news, the increasing chances of precipitation, sky cover, and
possibly northerly flow will result in lower max temperatures with
highs in the low to mid 90s across South Texas Tuesday through
Thursday. Lows will remain in the 70s with the increasing moisture
but if the front trends further south, this may need to be lowered.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Brief MVFR ceilings near isolated showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon over mainly the northern Coastal Bend/Victoria
Crossroads. Otherwise, VFR conditiions will prevail through early
tonight. A transition to a mixture of VFR conditions and MVFR
ceilings and/or visibilities are anticipated by early Saturday
morning, along with the development of isolated/scattered showers
near the coast (affecting mainly CRP). Afterward, isolated/
scattered showers, with MVFR conditions, are expected to
develop/move across the Coastal Plains 12-18z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Light onshore flow this morning will strengthen through the day
becoming light to moderate, mainly south of Port Aransas. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as we head
into the weekend as deeper moisture spreads over the area. Weak
to moderate onshore flow Saturday night through Monday night will
weaken and shift northeasterly Tuesday as a weak cold front
briefly pushes through. East to southeasterly flow is expected to
return by Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  94  78 /  30  10  20   0
Victoria          96  77  96  76 /  30  10  20   0
Laredo           101  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            100  76 100  75 /  20   0  10   0
Rockport          93  80  93  80 /  30  20  30  10
Cotulla          102  78 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        99  78  98  77 /  20  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  82 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>244-342>344.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...WC/87

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

9 heat, 2 excessive heat. Local standard time, as filed.

Heat, Inland Kleberg County

When
September 22, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Inland Kleberg County forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
27.427, -97.668 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 114 degrees.

Heat, Inland Nueces County

When
September 22, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Inland Nueces County forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
27.735, -97.516 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 114 degrees.

Heat, Inland Nueces County

When
September 23, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Inland Nueces County forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
27.735, -97.516 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 114 degrees.

Heat, Inland Kleberg County

When
September 23, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Inland Kleberg County forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
27.427, -97.668 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 114 degrees.

Heat, La Salle

When
September 23, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
La Salle forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
28.345, -99.100 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 112 degrees.

Excessive Heat, Inland Kleberg County

When
September 24, 12:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Inland Kleberg County forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
27.427, -97.668 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 115 to 118 degrees.

Excessive Heat, Inland Nueces County

When
September 24, 12:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Inland Nueces County forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
27.735, -97.516 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 115 to 118 degrees.

Heat, La Salle

When
September 24, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
La Salle forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
28.345, -99.100 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 113 degrees.

Heat, Jim Wells

When
September 24, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Jim Wells forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
27.731, -98.090 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 113 degrees.

Heat, Victoria

When
September 24, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Victoria forecast zone
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
28.796, -96.971 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 113 degrees.

Heat, Inland Calhoun County

When
September 24, 2:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Inland Calhoun County forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS
Coordinates
28.439, -96.615 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Afternoon heat index ranged from 110 to 113 degrees.

What these are

Heat
Heat below excessive heat criteria that still caused deaths, injuries or significant impacts.
Excessive Heat
Heat at or above the local excessive heat warning criteria, or heat that caused deaths.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142081, 1142083, 1142084, 1142085, 1142086, 1142088, 1142089, 1142091, 1142092, 1142094, 1142095.