Texas, 2023

Drought in Texas, September 1 to 30, 2023

September 1 to 30, 2023 · NWS CRP · 12 events in 12 counties and zones

Severe to extreme drought persisted over the northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads regions through the month. Severe to extreme drought over Webb County improved to abnormally dry by the end of the month.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
12

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.

Severe to extreme drought persisted over the northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads regions through the month. Severe to extreme drought over Webb County improved to abnormally dry by the end of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 11:17 PM CST, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 11:17 PM CST, 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1217 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Surface pressure gradient remains very weak as ridging builds in
from the west with a cutoff mid-level low developing over North
Texas. Conditions will remain unfavorable for rain chances through
Friday night with moisture near or below the 25th percentile (<1.5"
PWATs) and positive vorticity focused northeast of the area. Light
and variable winds during the morning and night periods will shift
southeasterly in the afternoon in wake of the sea breeze. There is a
very slight chance of patchy fog development over the Coastal Plains
late overnight into sunrise with dewpoints recovering into the low
to mid 70s under mostly clear skies and calm winds.

Dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 70 tomorrow will allow for max
temperatures to climb to around the triple digit mark across most of
South Texas and the low 70s along the coast. Thankfully, this will
limit heat index values below 109. Although CAM guidance shows a few
showers developing along the sea breeze Friday afternoon, I don't
agree there will be enough lift support and moisture to lead to
measurable rainfall. Looking at soundings, there is a deep dry low-
level layer beneath 700mb. Any elevated showers that develop will
likely evaporate before reaching the surface. Typical summer nights
with lows in the low 70s inland to around 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Key Message:

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms beginning early next
  week through the end of the work week

Guidance has trended drier especially with models (GFS/ECMWF)
showing the region remaining in between a mid level low over
southeast TX and western LA and a ridge in west TX. Min RH values
across much of the Brush Country through mid next week will range
between 20-35%. The only caveat to the critically to extremely dry
fuels is that winds are forecast to remain under the threshold for
elevated fire weather conditions, but it's not out of the question
to potentially meet threshold in the afternoon periods with the
onset of the seabreeze and higher wind gusts.

Considering the drier conditions, max heat index values will range
from 100-105 degrees through the weekend. Temperatures will be in
the upper 90s to around 105 through the long term. Moisture will
begin to filter back into the area via a combination of a tropical
wave coming off of the Yucatan and a moisture "ribbon" associated
with Tropical Storm Idalia this weekend. This will increase heat
indices back up to 105 potentially 115 in some areas next week,
which is what we have become accustom to this summer. While the
influx of moisture would increase the probabilities for rain chances
normally, since we are still in the dry and subsident region of the
mid-level low through Sunday the potential for rain greatly
diminishes inland. The best chances begin Monday as the area will
enter the divergent region of the trough axis in combination with
above normal moisture. This is in part to the mid level low
transitioning north over north TX creating more of a focus for
convection to develop lasting through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across S TX through the
TAF period. Very brief patchy fog from ALI to VCT may lead to MVFR
VSBYs between 11-13Z Friday morning. Otherwise, skies will be
mostly clear. Light and variable winds are expected through Friday
morning into early Friday afternoon. Winds become more east to
southeast around 10KT by late Friday afternoon as the sea breeze
moves inland. Can not rule out a few gusts to around 20KT for
around an hour or so behind the sea breeze Friday afternoon,
mainly ALI and CRP TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Weak onshore flow will continue this evening, becoming light and
variable late tonight into Friday morning. Weak onshore flow
develops once again Friday afternoon. A generally weak to
moderate onshore flow can be expected as we head through the
weekend. By Monday, periods of moderate to occasionally strong
onshore flow can be expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible daily starting
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  96  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          73 101  73 100 /   0  10   0  20
Laredo            76 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             72 101  71 101 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          78  95  79  94 /   0  10  10  10
Cotulla           75 103  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       80  92  79  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TE/81

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

12 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Webb

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 15, 12:00 AM CST
Where
Webb forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
27.761, -99.332 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe to extreme drought over Webb County improved to abnormally dry by the end of the month.

Drought, Victoria

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Victoria forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.796, -96.971 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the county during the month.

Drought, Goliad

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Goliad forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.657, -97.426 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the county during the month.

Drought, Inland Calhoun County

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Inland Calhoun County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.439, -96.615 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the area during the month.

Drought, Coastal Calhoun County

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Coastal Calhoun County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.439, -96.615 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the area during the month.

Drought, Calhoun County Islands

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Calhoun County Islands forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.439, -96.615 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the area during the month.

Drought, Bee

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Bee forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.417, -97.741 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the northern part of the county and severe drought over the southern part of the county during the month.

Drought, Inland Refugio County

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Inland Refugio County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.322, -97.159 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the northeastern half of the area and severe drought over the southwestern part of the area during the month.

Drought, Coastal Refugio County

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Coastal Refugio County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.322, -97.159 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought persisted over the northeastern half of the area and severe drought over the southwestern part of the area during the month.

Drought, Coastal Aransas County

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Coastal Aransas County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.015, -97.074 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought persisted over the area during the month.

Drought, Aransas County Islands

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Aransas County Islands forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.015, -97.074 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought persisted over the area during the month.

Drought, Live Oak

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Live Oak forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.351, -98.125 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought persisted over most of the county during the month with extreme drought over the extreme northeast part of the county.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1141068, 1141069, 1141070, 1141071, 1141072, 1141073, 1141074, 1141075, 1141076, 1141077, 1141078, 1141079.