S. Mexico border and tapped into the jet, developed a surface coastal low/trough along and east of the Lower Texas coast beginning on November 9th/10th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
A classic El Nino atmospheric setup, which included a robust subtropical jet stream aided by a slow-moving upper level disturbance that moved along the U.S. Mexico border and tapped into the jet, developed a surface coastal low/trough along and east of the Lower Texas coast beginning on November 9th/10th. The situation continued through November 13th before the upper-level system moved east. The steady, locally heavy rains were beneficial for most, with heavier pockets mainly producing ponding of water in urban areas.
An area of heavier rain moved across the Rio Grande near Roma on the 12th, producing minor urban flooding. Estimated rainfall totals for the entire event there were between 5 and more than 6 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 12, 2:17 PM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
217 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023
The latest radar and satellite imagery depict a dense blanket of
overcast skies across all of Deep South Texas, with periods of light
to moderate rain and/or light drizzle. Most areas across the region
are observing temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, well below
normal for mid November.
The overall weather pattern will remain favorable for continued rain
chances through the short term period - in the lower levels, there
is a coastal low over the Gulf of Mexico, which is aiding in
transporting low level moisture overhead; in the upper levels,
persistent southwesterly flow ahead of a 500mb shortwave is aiding
in transporting mid and upper level moisture from the Pacific Ocean
toward the region as well. This combination will allow precipitable
water values to increase to around 2 inches or higher this afternoon
and tonight, particularly across the eastern half of the region. The
combination of high moisture content and increasing ascent
associated with the approaching shortwave will result in an uptick
in moderate rain with efficient rain rates later this afternoon and
evening, but the lack of instability will limit the threat for high
rainfall rates.
After coordination with WPC, the Slight Risk was lowered to a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for today and tonight due to
the overall lackluster instability. However, with most of the region
receiving around 1-3 inches of beneficial rain the past several
days, nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out.
Pockets of heavier rainfall will likely remain over the Gulf waters
through tonight, but cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast
into tonight.
The coastal low will begin to move toward the Northern Gulf of
Mexico by late tomorrow afternoon, as the shortwave translates
toward the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and North Texas. This pattern
shift will begin to end our precipitation chances from west to east
late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Most rain chances will
reside mainly along the immediate coast and Gulf waters Monday night.
As far as beach and marine hazards, a Rip Current Statement and
Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through at least Monday
evening, but may need to be extended into Tuesday as breezy north
northwest winds persist. In addition, we'll need to keep an eye on
the potential for coastal flooding as seas build with increasing
winds associated with the coastal low and increasing astronomical
tides. Otherwise, opted to hold off on Gale Warnings for our
Northern Gulf waters for tomorrow, but will continue to be monitored
if confidence increases over the next several hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023
Upper level ridging begins to move into the region Tuesday, with
broad subsidence and northwesterly flow aloft drying out the mid
levels of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, a surface low over the
western Gulf will continue to support northerly surface flow,
which will keep temperatures a bit cooler for the start of the
period. The surface low will move further east through the week,
allowing the winds to shift easterly to southeasterly by Friday.
With the drying of the atmosphere, rain chances will diminish over
the coastal waters Tuesday, then remain near zero through the
remainder of the period. High temperatures in the low 70s Tuesday
will gradually climb to the mid to upper 70s by Thursday, then
into the low 80s Friday through the end of the period. Low
temperatures will remain in the 50s to low 60 through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023
Poor flying conditions will prevail through the forecast period at
all TAF sites. IFR/LIFR ceilings based around 400-600 feet will
persist, with very intermittent periods of improvement to MVFR
expected (mainly at MFE). Periods of light to moderate rain may
reduce visibility below 2SM at times. Otherwise, expect north
northwest winds around 12 knots or lower.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2023
Now through Monday night...Unfavorable conditions will prevail
through the period, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the
Gulf waters through Monday evening. A coastal low will strengthen as
it shifts north into tomorrow afternoon, resulting in increasing
wind speeds over the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory will remain
in effect for the Gulf waters north of Port Mansfield, with Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions over the rest of the area. Into
Monday morning, Small Craft Advisory conditions will prevail across
all of the Gulf waters. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible
through tomorrow evening. Gale force wind gusts will also be
possible tomorrow afternoon across the offshore Gulf waters,
particularly north of Port Mansfield, but confidence is too low to
warrant a Gale Warning at this time.
Tuesday through next Sunday...A surface low over the western Gulf
will continue to support stronger northerly surface winds Tuesday
before diminishing for the remainder of the period. As the low
moves further east, pressure gradients will weaken, and winds will
eventually shift easterly by Friday. Seas up to 8ft on Tuesday
will slowly fall through the week, reaching 3-4 ft by Thursday and
2-3 feet Saturday. Some lingering rain chances will slowly
diminish Tuesday into Tuesday night and remain near zero through
the remainder of the period. Small Craft Advisories may be needed
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 64 68 60 72 / 90 60 20 10
HARLINGEN 60 66 58 71 / 90 70 20 10
MCALLEN 60 65 59 71 / 90 70 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 65 58 71 / 90 60 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 71 64 70 / 90 70 40 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 70 60 72 / 90 70 30 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-
135-150-170.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Monday for GMZ155-175.
&&
SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...22-GarciaThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Roma Police reported street flooding along/in the vicinity of Deer Run Avenue at approximately 4 PM CST. Time shown here allowed for a buffer based on the steady type of rain vs. convective rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1147487.