A thunderstorm developed along an old outflow boundary and produced damaging wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm developed along an old outflow boundary and produced damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 9, 12:14 PM CST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 114 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Convection is ongoing over Hill Country and the southern Edwards Plateau early this morning. Activity appears to be forced by a combination of outflow from last night's storms over the Edwards Plateau, in addition to axis of upper height falls/embedded perturbations ejecting into the Rio Grande Plains. Activity has briefly pulsed up to marginally severe levels over the last several hours, prior to quickly pulsing down in an environment characterized by weak mid-upper winds and attendant shear. Of greater concern has been the heavy rainfall produced in the most robust storms, with single radars and MRMS both estimating 1-2" per hour rates in spots. This has prompted the issuance of several flood advisories, as well as a flash flood warning over portions of Uvalde and Zavala Counties. This warning remains in effect until 245 AM this morning. Storms will continue through the predawn hours, with some contraction south into the Winter Garden/Coastal Plains progged in recent CAM solutions. With the upper disturbance lingering in our vicinity, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible during the afternoon and evening hours through the remainder of the short term period. Today: After some possible decrease in activity through the predawn hours and first half of this morning, showers and thunderstorms will ramp back up in coverage through the afternoon hours. Similar to previous days, activity will likely first focus along any subtle surface boundaries, with storm coverage expanding along any established outflow boundaries. Weak flow/shear will drive a messy convective mode, although steep mid-level lapse rates may support marginally severe hail in some of the strongest cells. The Storm Prediction Center has thus introduced a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains in its day one convective outlook. Of greater concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly considering that slow-moving storms will be possible over portions of the CWA already seeing several inches of rain yesterday. The Weather Prediction Center thus includes most locations along and east of Interstate 35 in a slight (level 2/4) risk for heavy rain in its day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. Remember to turn around, don't drown if encountering flooded roadways this afternoon and evening. Wednesday: With the upper disturbance lingering in our vicinity, additional showers and storms will be possible. Like today, a marginally severe storm can't be completely ruled out, although locally heavy downpours will continue to be primary concern in any slow-moving storms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 Thursday could be the one day with a brief reprieve from hazardous weather conditions due to strong storms or locally heavy rainfall. The upper pattern Thursday will be between systems with the best lift well north of the area as an upper low passes through the Central Plains. With the slightly drier weather expected, highs Thursday will likely be in the middle 80s to lower 90s. The pattern then returns to a very active pattern for Friday and beyond. A subtropical low will be pushing to northern Mexico with an upper jet connection from the Pacific Ocean into South-Central Texas. These setups bring in very high amounts of moisture to our region as both low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and mid- level moisture from the Pacific overspread the region. Late this week will be no different as precipitable water values are expected to approach 2 inches by Saturday. The first wave of lift associated with the slowly advancing sub-tropical low will arrive Friday afternoon in the west and the overspread the region Friday night into Saturday. Lift associated with this system will likely continue into Sunday, which will continue the widespread high PoPs across the CWA. This should bring widespread rainfall with the potential for heavy amounts into portions of the area. It is still too early to get into specific rainfall amounts, but a look at the ensemble means do support the higher totals along and west of the I35 corridor and this is where for the most part the NBM has the higher PoPs. Speaking of the NBM, the latest probabilities of 72 hour rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches is greater than 50 to 60 percent for much of the CWA which is a strong signal for the threat of some hefty rainfall totals. One thing to watch for is there are some hints that a boundary could move into the region at some point this weekend, which is another ingredient for heavy rainfall. In addition, while many areas have been in drought, recent rains in April and early May for portions of the area have led to some shallow saturation of the soils for portions of the area. All this to say, while we can't get into the specifics yet, this event has the potential to bring some heavy rainfall to the region with a decent threat of flash flooding to portions of the area. The new day 4 excessive rain outlook from WPC has a large portion of the CWA in a slight risk and the Day 5 has a large portion of the western half of the area in a moderate risk which is somewhat rare for the day 5 outlook. The locations and amount of rainfall will continued to be fine tuned by Wednesday into Thursday. Medium range guidance shows some drying and cooler conditions filtering into the region by Monday with lower PoPs expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023 MVFR cigs are expected across KAUS for the next hour or so before cigs come to just VFR category. Light rain is expected for the Austin and San Antonio airports throughout the afternoon and evening and continuing through the overnight hours as a mid level disturbance lingers over the local area and pushes to the northeast late tonight into Wednesday morning. KDRT should stay VFR for most of the forecast period with MVFR cigs possibly developing around sunrise for a few hours. As far as the I-35 sites for later tonight, MVFR and IFR cigs are anticipated through at least mid to late morning. East to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots are forecast through the forecast period with occasional higher gusts mainly associated with outflows or nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 67 84 71 86 / 60 60 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 82 70 85 / 60 60 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 85 71 86 / 60 50 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 65 82 69 85 / 50 50 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 93 73 94 / 30 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 81 69 84 / 60 60 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 67 86 70 88 / 40 40 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 83 70 85 / 60 60 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 81 71 85 / 60 70 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 85 71 86 / 50 40 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 68 85 72 87 / 50 40 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Short-Term...17 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...17
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 412 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-100915- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 412 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today And Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon, with the best chances being along and east of Interstate 35. Although large hail exceeding quarter size can't be ruled out, locally heavy rainfall and minor flash flooding will be the primary concerns in any activity. A slight risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall is forecast by the Weather Prediction Center east of Interstate 35. Remember to turn around, don't drown if encountering flooded roadways in this portion of South-Central Texas later today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Wednesday primarily along and east of Interstate 35, where a slight (level 2/4) risk for excessive rainfall is forecast by the Weather Prediction Center. Additional periods of heavy rain and possible flooding are then expected from Friday through the upcoming weekend. Further details will be provided as the forecast is fine-tuned through the remainder of this week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM HAIL 6 SW LA GRANGE 29.85N 96.96W
05/08/2023 E1.50 INCH FAYETTE TX PUBLIC
HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED VIA PUBLIC PHOTO ON
SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
EHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
824 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0931 PM HAIL 1 ESE LAKE MEDINA SHORE 29.63N 98.97W
05/08/2023 E1.00 INCH BANDERA TX PUBLIC
REPORT FROM MPING QUARTER.
&&
MBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
838 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSE LA GRANGE 29.87N 96.86W
05/08/2023 FAYETTE TX PUBLIC
PUBLIC VIDEO SHOWS WATER FLOWING OVER THE
ROAD AT THE LOW WATER CROSSING AT GUENTHER
ROAD AND LANE POOL CREEK WITH ROAD CLOSURE
IN PLACE.
&&
EHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
109 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
TXZ190-091845-
Blanco TX-
109 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Blanco
County through 145 PM CDT...
At 109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Round Mountain, moving northwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Round Mountain, Johnson City and Sandy.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3037 9826 3027 9831 3027 9854 3049 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 116DEG 8KT 3037 9836
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MMThe Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:06 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced wind gusts estimated at 70 mph that snapped a one foot diameter Elm tree north of Burnet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1101565.