On the morning of the 19th, a cold front moved through the area shifting winds to the northeast across the region into eastern New Mexico. Thunderstorms initially developed on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico where low level upslope flow was maximized.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
On the morning of the 19th, a cold front moved through the area shifting winds to the northeast across the region into eastern New Mexico. Thunderstorms initially developed on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico where low level upslope flow was maximized. Westerly flow aloft allowed storms to drift to the east towards West Texas during the afternoon and evening hours. Instability values of up to 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear in excess of 40 knots allowed one storm to become severe as it tracked into the southwestern South Plains. A storm chaser estimated wind gusts up to 60 mph near the inflow region of the thunderstorm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 5:15 PM CST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 615 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 An upper low continues to spin over Baja Cali, while another low moves into the Great Lakes Region today. Given this setup, flow aloft remains mostly westerly with some weak 30 knot 500mb winds. A surface low over east central Oklahoma has brought a cold front diving southward through our area this morning. Original model guidance had the front stalling out in the southern portions of the Rolling Plains, but as of current afternoon observations the frontal boundary is through the entire South and Rolling Plains and into the Permian Basin. This also means the axis for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the front has shifted farther south. However, there are a few thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain in New Mexico this afternoon. Despite the frontal passage, dewpoints are still in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have moved in from the north this morning with temperatures a bit cooler than previously forecasted in the 70s and then lower 80s across the far southern zones. With some westerly flow aloft, storms will move eastward through the afternoon. Storms will potentially reach the western South Plains by early this evening. The environment MLCAPE values are generally less than 1000 J/kg, but a few models have up to 1500 J/kg possible across the southern South Plains. 0-6km shear values are around 40-45 knots with steep 0-3km lapse rates, which could support strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail. Any isolated storm that does move into the western South Plains this evening will struggle to maintain intensity as it continues east due to weaker instability and loss of daytime heating. Lingering moisture overnight from the storms to the south may bring some rain showers with isolated thunder to the far southwest South Plains. In addition, a large swath of low clouds (current draped across much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles) will push southward across West Texas tonight. Mostly cloudy conditions overnight and thus low temperatures were warmed a few degrees from the NBM towards the CONSShort to account for insolation. Tomorrow, a surface high will build in with a secondary push of cold air from the front associated with the upper low vacating the Great Lakes. High clouds will filter north across the area with a fetch of southwesterly flow aloft around the low still positioned near northwest Mexico. Thus highs will generally max out in the mid 70s tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 There is very little change in the updated extended forecast, with slightly less coverage in convection on Sunday afternoon being the most notable difference, but is almost unnoticeable. It's an unsettled but weakly forced pattern that will produce at least slight chance PoPs across almost our entire FA everyday in the afternoon into the early evening hours. Effective bulk shear will continue to be a limiting factor in the potential for severe thunderstorm development on any given afternoon, especially toward the middle to end of next week when a building ridge axis gradually pivots west to east across our area late Tuesday through early Saturday (best indicated in the 12z GFS). Shortwave energy aloft transecting that axis will help destabilize the upper levels each day over relatively healthy low level moisture, with Monday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evening having the best potential for strong convection attm but no obvious target of opportunity for the time being. There is also no signal for any sudden pattern change for next weekend or beyond. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 MVFR CIGs associated with a post-frontal airmass will continue to migrate southward throughout the rest of the evening and into the early morning hours at KCDS, KPVW, and eventually KLBB. Satellite imagery indicates that this stratus deck is narrow in width, and is forecast to clear out of all terminals prior to sunrise Saturday. VFR will prevail thereafter with light winds gradually veering to the east. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...09
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1155 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 TXZ021>044-201700- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1155 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon across the southwestern portions of the South Plains this evening. Some storms may become severe, capable of producing hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts to 70 mph. Torrential rainfall may also result in localized flooding concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Daily chances for thunderstorms resume Sunday and continue through Thursday. Storms could be severe with locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:50 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A storm chaser estimated wind gusts up to 60 mph along Farm to Market Road 1585 near the Texas/New Mexico state line in Cochran County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1087946.