Hot temperatures, coupled with a dryline, triggered widespread thunderstorm development on the afternoon of the 12th. Strong instability and the relatively hot and dry low levels of the atmosphere promoted strong wind gusts and pockets of small hail with the most intense activity, though relatively weak vertical wind shear kept severe storms from lasting very long.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Hot temperatures, coupled with a dryline, triggered widespread thunderstorm development on the afternoon of the 12th. Strong instability and the relatively hot and dry low levels of the atmosphere promoted strong wind gusts and pockets of small hail with the most intense activity, though relatively weak vertical wind shear kept severe storms from lasting very long. One storm did manage to generate a 62 mph wind gust near Graham (Garza County). A broad area of light to moderate rain evolved over the southern Rolling Plains during the evening hours. A wake low formed at the back edge of the precipitation shield generating severe wind gusts near Guthrie (King County) for about one hour.
High wind gusts from the wake low event are listed below from the Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet:
66 mph at Guthrie (King County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 5:09 PM CST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 609 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 Forecast remains on track today for some stronger isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the southern Rolling Plains this evening. As of 2 pm, WTM data shows a dryline running from near Lamesa to Jayton with a cold front running from near Muleshoe over to Paducah. Satellite is showing a robust cumulus field along the dryline with a few attempts at convective initiation already. A special sounding out of Midland this afternoon showed a nearly uncapped environment with modestly steep lapse rates leading to ML CAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. However, shear remains on the low side with only around 20 kts effective bulk shear. This parameter space is still sufficient for severe thunderstorm development with the potential for large hail and strong winds. A mid-level low will continue to strengthen near the Big Bend this afternoon and continue to slowly shift to the northeast. As it does so it will help to shift the surface dryline back to the north and west and as it does so additional isolated convective development is expected. As the low approaches the forecast area Saturday morning upper-level lift and isentropic ascent will increase leading to more widespread rainfall although there will be nothing overly heavy just a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall with occasional thunderstorms. With the rain and cloud cover temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler only in the 60s to lower 70s. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 By late Saturday evening the midlevel troughing embedded within the ongoing meridional flow aloft will continue to shift northward along the TX/NM state line, gradually weakening into a more diffuse open wave over the northern TX Panhandle by Sunday morning. Coverage of rain showers will therefore decrease from south to north on Saturday night as the surface low and best forcing for ascent shift north of our area. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by very weak flow aloft Sunday through early Tuesday as the midlevel height field becomes essentially uniform with upper level troughing retrograding away from our area. This will allow the plume of anomalously high moisture to remain essentially locked in place over the southern plains region resulting in continued high precipitation chances through early next week. After a relative lull in precipitation on Sunday morning, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage once again Sunday afternoon again as convective temperatures are reached, assisted by modest surface convergence from a lingering weak trough axis. Given the lack of coherent large-scale forcing and very weak flow aloft, this activity will likely take the form of scattered pulse-type convection, and as such it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where the highest coverage of precip will be on Sunday. A similar setup looks likely to evolve on Monday with continuing easterly surface flow and anomalously high moisture, but similar uncertainty exists regarding the favored locations for the most concentrated shower activity. Given the moisture and synoptic setup, broad-brushed likely to categorical PoPs look fairly good for this setup for now on both Sunday and Monday. While widespread excessive rainfall is not expected during this period, PWATs exceeding one inch, elongated CAPE profiles supporting efficient rain production, and slow-moving cells will likely support a few very localized instances of flash flooding, supportive of a continued Marginal/Slight risk of excessive rainfall from WPC. The forecast becomes more uncertain Tuesday through the rest of the week, mainly due to differences between guidance in the development of northwest flow aloft and how this interacts with upper level troughing over Baja. In general, consensus points to the continuation of shower and storm chances through the end of next week as a plume of high PWATs remains in place combined with the potential for a series of upper disturbances both within the northwest flow and out ahead of the southwestern trough. Details remain unclear, but this supports the maintenance of mentionable PoPs through the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 The forecast remains messy through the TAF period. Overall VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z at PVW and CDS while prevailing through at least 02-03Z at LBB. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin moving across the terminals shortly before to after midnight. VIS may be temporarily reduced in heavier showers and thunderstorms to MVFR. Forecasting CIGs is much more uncertain. Current guidance suggests low end VFR to MVFR. For now they will be kept near MVFR but will likely need to be amended when confidence is higher. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through the end of the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...51
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 255 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 TXZ021>044-132000- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 255 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected across the Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become severe with the main threats being large hail up to golf ball size, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, and localized flooding due to moderate to heavy rainfall. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Kent and Stonewall Counties until 10 PM CDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Moderate to heavy rainfall at times may lead to localized flash flooding. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday through Thursday. Heavy rainfall will remain possible resulting in a continued threat for very localized flooding, especially on Sunday and Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this evening.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:25 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Graham measured severe wind gusts from 1726 CST through 1727 CST. A peak wind gust of 62 mph was measured at 1726 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1087644, 1087646.