Heat in Texas, June 24 to 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
929 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Updates were made to include a slight chance for thunderstorms to
the areas northeast and east of the OKC area for ongoing
convection. This has been decreasing throughout the morning, but
remnants will remain through midday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

The moist convection from earlier has dissipated across central TX
early this morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop through the rest of the morning mainly along and east of
I-35 within a mid level theta-e ridge axis via isentropic ascent.
Later this afternoon through this evening, a stationary boundary
will extend from southwestern OK/north TX northeastward through
central and northeastern OK. Convective initiation will be
possible late this afternoon along this boundary and dryline
intersection across north TX. If storms manage to develop there
through early this evening, they could become severe with damaging
wind gusts and marginally severe hail the main threats. Later
tonight, a subtle mid level shortwave trough will top the ridge
moving over central and northern OK. Additional isolated moist
convection will then be possible near the boundary across central
Oklahoma. These storms will likely remain non-severe but could
produce some strong wind gusts into late evening hours.

Hot and humid conditions return to much of the area today on the
south-side of the boundary, with heat indices approaching
excessive heat criteria across north TX. The heat advisory has
been extended northward to include central and eastern OK for this
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

A "cold" front will move into northern OK Sunday morning, and
stall near the I-40/I-44 corridors during the day ushering in some
drier boundary layer air. Heat advisory conditions will shift
southward to the Red River Sunday afternoon with it. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will also return along this
stalled boundary Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, mainly
along and south of I-40 and along/east of I-35. A few strong to
severe storms will be possible there Sunday with high instability
and modest deep layer shear in place.

After a brief cool down Monday under a surface ridge axis, a warm
front is expected to quickly lift north into western north TX and
then central OK under the upper ridge. Later in the evening and
overnight Tuesday, there's a chance of some KS high plains
showers and thunderstorms (perhaps as an MCS) moving into northern
OK atop the ridge. By Wednesday, it should very hot directly
under the subtropical ridge but thankfully southwesterly surface
flow should result in much lower dewpoints across our forecast
area. On the flip-side, this downslope flow will also result in
widespread triple digit heat engulfing the area so we'll probably
end up with a heat advisory any way for at least a portion of the
area. The heat will continue Thursday but surface flow will return
to more southerly.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday into next weekend
as the ridge breaks down, thanks to several shortwave troughs
entering the Central Plains, and a weak cold front arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

VFR conditions along with light southeasterly winds are expected
to prevail at most sites. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this
morning across central and north-central Oklahoma through about
15z, but too low of a chance to include at any of the TAF sites.
Similarly low chances exist this afternoon across western north
Texas. A weak cold front will enter northern Oklahoma tonight into
Sunday morning, with a shift to light northerly winds behind it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  73  94  70 /  20  20  10  10
Hobart OK         99  73  94  70 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 104  77 105  75 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           95  65  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     97  69  93  66 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         96  78 100  76 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ019-020-025>032-037>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ039-041>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
346 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-250900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
346 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along and east of I-35 through
this morning. Severe weather is not expected this morning. Later
this afternoon through this evening, isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of north Texas.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with these storms
although hail up to the size of quarters cannot be ruled out.
Isolated strong thunderstorms may also develop across southwestern
and central Oklahoma through the evening and overnight hours.

.Heat...
Triple digit temperatures and heat indices are expected this
afternoon across the southeastern half of Oklahoma and all of
north Texas. A Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms may continue across southeastern Oklahoma
through early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorm development
will then be possible Sunday afternoon through Sunday night along
and south of I40, and along and east of I35. A few strong to
severe storms will remain possible through Sunday evening, with a
threat of damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Additional low thunderstorm chances return to northern Oklahoma
Tuesday night, and again Thursday night. Increasing thunderstorm
chances arrive Friday night, and continue through next weekend.

.Excessive Heat...
Triple digit temperatures and heat indices will continue Sunday
afternoon across southern Oklahoma and portions of north Texas. A
heat advisory is now in effect for these areas Sunday. After a
short break Monday, triple digit heat will return Tuesday through
Thursday across much of the area.

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