Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 23, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
246 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

A very warm and moist airmass is generating quite a bit of potential
energy for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the
forecast area. A strong cap is still in place, but continued
heating, increasing convergence along a developing surface
trough/dryline near the TX/NM border, and an approaching shortwave
in the southwesterly flow aloft are all expected to contribute to
convective initiation soon across the western South Plains. Also of
note is a well-defined outflow boundary laid down by a ongoing
convective complex now in south-central OK. This boundary lies from
near Caprock Canyons State Park arcing east-southeast into northern
Cottle County, and is pretty much stationary at this time. Storms
that develop will be able to exploit an environment of strong
instability, with MLCAPES of up to 3500+ J/kg, peaking in the
Rolling Plains where low 70s dewpoints currently reside. Stronger
deep-layer shear will be found across the Panhandles into our
northern Counties, and that combined with warmer temperatures aloft
farther south, likely accounts for CAM indications that we'll see
more numerous activity across our northern counties, and likely more
intense as well. At this time, it appears that Lubbock lies on the
south side of this "dividing line", but we certainly can't rule out
a strong or severe storm around Lubbock or farther south, the odds
are just a bit lower.

Very large hail will be possible with the strongest storm cells,
along with severe outflow wind gusts. The tornado threat will likely
be maximized just along and north of that outflow boundary with any
discrete storm encounters it. Otherwise, any other supercellular
storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes as well.

The storm activity is still expected to congeal into a broken or
solid "squall line" this evening that will move across much of the
Rolling Plains. The main severe threat will transition to straight
line wind gusts with this line, with lesser but still present
large hail and brief tornado threats. The storm activity should have
pretty much exited the area by midnight, and we'll be left with a
quiet and very mild night, with lows in the 60s and 70s.

Saturday, the upper ridge flattens out and drier, westerly flow
is established across the forecast area. While this will eliminate
the chance of storms, the dry, downsloping flow will allow
temperatures to soar. The dryline should mix off the Caprock.
Afternoon high temperatures should be above 100F area- wide, and
may approach 110F in the southern Rolling Plains. These
temperatures should reach at least into the low side of our heat
advisory criteria (105F on the Caprock and 110F in the Rolling
Plains). We're also considering that we won't get much heat relief
tonight or tomorrow night. We'll issue a Heat Advisory for much
of the southern and central South Plains and Rolling Plains
(including Lubbock) from 1 pm to 10 pm tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

An extended period of very hot temperatures, dangerously so at
times, will persist through the long term forecast. High
temperatures on Sunday will be modified slightly cooler across our
northern zones as a weak front slowly pushes south through our area
during the day becoming more diffuse as the day goes on. The center
of the persistent subtropical ridge driving the recent heat will
gradually shift from northern Old Mexico across the Trans-Pecos and
Big Bend into central Texas by Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday
will be between 100-110 area wide (with some locations possibly
reaching as high as 115 across the southern South Plains and
southern Rolling Plains). Deterministic guidance provides a hint of
relief from the intense heat late next week into next weekend, with
increasing rain chances due to a Pacific trough attempting to dig
this far south. The NBM has not picked up on that signal attm, but
it would be welcomed relief from the mostly dry and hot conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

The main aviation concern will be the potential for strong/severe
t-storms in the vicinity of all three terminals late this
afternoon and evening bringing potential of strong downdraft wind
gusts, hail and turbulence. After the storms clear out tonight, a
40-50 kt low-level jet from the south-southwest will develop and
may bring Low-level wind shear conditions, primarily at KCDS. Very
hot temperatures are expected on Sat afternoon and evening
resulting in higher density altitudes.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ031-032-
034>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
223 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

TXZ021>044-241930-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
223 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight across
the Caprock and Rolling Plains. All severe weather related hazards
are possible, including: Very large hail up to near baseball size,
damaging wind gusts between 70 and 80 mph, and a tornado or two.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the western
South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle this afternoon and
increase by the evening hours as storms grow into a complex and move
to the east. Torrential rainfall will lead to a risk for localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for Saturday afternoon and evening
across much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Very hot
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday are expected to reach Heat
Advisory and possibly Excessive Heat Warning criteria, for much of
the South Plains and Rolling Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.