Tornado and Hail in Texas, June 15 to 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1040 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

A quick update to add Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313, which
essentially includes McCurtain County Oklahoma, East Texas and NW
Louisiana along and north of I-20 corridor, and all of SW
Arkansas, except Union County. This watch will remain in effect
through 4 am, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary
threats. /20/

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

A quick update to grids to adjust POPs based on current trends.
Also, decided to let the Heat Advisory drop, although additional
heat products will be likely needed for tomorrow. This was
decided because there may be a need to go with an Excessive Heat
Warning, based on today's heat index values. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast still remains. A cluster of severe
storms will likely move into the region later this evening and
through the overnight hours. Wind gusts over 50 kts will be
possible, along with large hail, and a threat for an isolated
tornado. Models indicate the convection should clear the region by
sunrise, with low clouds and patchy fog moving into the region.

Additional updates will be possible tonight, as Watches are likely
coming ahead of the convection.  /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

After a warm and very humid afternoon across the ArkLaTex, this
evening will find the region poised to be on the receiving end of
yet another round of severe weather. The threat looks to take the
form of an organized line of storms entering our extreme southeast
Oklahoma and east Texas zones around the 03Z hour. Based on this
trajectory, the advancing system will propagate into an
environment very favorable for convective activity, with very high
CAPE indicating a thoroughly destabilized environment in east
Texas in particular. Concurrently, an area of vigorous bulk shear
values in excess of 60 kts will push east from north central
Texas, driving what has the potential to be an impactful severe
wind event. Mid- level lapse rates of 8 to 9 deg C/km over east
Texas suggest that if adequate lofting can be achieved, a few
large hailstones are not out of the question either. However, the
pronounced area of shear may result in such hail being widely
isolated in nature, if any manages to form. A tornado or two also
cannot be ruled out entirely, primarily across our
northeasternmost zones of east Texas and southeast Oklahoma.

Short range hires models continue to exhibit characteristic spread
on the timing of this system, though a reasonable consensus has been
reached regarding the mode of convection. HRRR and WRF-ARW both push
a north-south oriented squall line eastward, extending from just
south of the I-20 corridor to the north beyond I-30. WRF-ARW is far
more aggressive in terms of eastward trajectory, clearing the line to
our east as it dissipates by 06Z. HRRR, however, holds the line
together at a slower rate of speed, clearing the area at 09Z at the
earliest. The FV3 Hi-Res takes a slightly different approach,
extending the squall line further south into deep east Texas and
maintaining robust areas of convection in the evening which then
proceed break apart as they move east overnight. Based on the
favorable convective environment, the 17Z HRRR run appears
consistent with the most likely scenario, which is reflected in the
NBM model output in this afternoon's PoP and wx grids.

With the CWA situated on the eastern side of a ridge building over
the Plains, northwesterly flow aloft will serve to funnel one system
after another down the Plains and into the ArkLaTex. Thus will it be
on Friday, which will dawn with tonight's storms barely having
cleared the eastern edge of the CWA when another impulse of energy
will stir up a chance of storms across the northeastern third of the
area, particularly in southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas.
This action will continue into the afternoon, primarily east of the
I-49 corridor, retreating gradually to the east by midnight, after
which a few hours of quiet conditions will lead into Saturday
morning.

In addition to the ongoing rounds of severe weather, heat will also
continue to pose a potential hazard across our southernmost zones.
After a mild night of lows ranging from the upper 60s north to
middle 70s south, highs Friday will climb into the mid 80s north to
mid to upper 90s south. Concurrent with muggy dewpoints in the mid
70s, these conditions look to result in heat indices in the lower
100s during the afternoon hours across deep east Texas into
northwest Louisiana. Daybreak Saturday morning will see another
round of lows in the upper 60s north to upper 70s south.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

The long-term is hot, the long-term is humid, and the long-term is
awful. It finally looks like summer is about to make its presence
known across the region, as the NW flow pattern we've been stuck in
finally begins to break down. This will not be before another round
of severe weather skirts our far northern zones during the overnight
hours of Saturday, and into Sunday.

The stout upper-level ridge that we have been mentioning the last
few days has more or less been delayed in its progression by the
ever revolving boundary. However, it looks like by Sunday, the ridge
will finally begin to win that battle. High temperatures on Saturday
will already be creeping into the mid-90s in our southern zones,
with rain chances and the cloud deck insulating locations to our
north. While widespread severe weather doesn't look likely for our
region Saturday night and into Sunday, there is certainly the chance
that a few of our northern counties see a strong to severe
thunderstorm. In fact, there is already a Day 3 and 4 outlook in
place for these areas, highlighting the chance for damaging winds
and hail. Rain chances for the remainder of the long-term will be
limited to our far eastern zones, with the flow aloft taking a more
N-S direction. However, these chances will be limited over the next
week.

The real weather story for the long-term will be the oppressive heat
that we've been mentioning the last few days. By the start of the
new workweek, afternoon highs across the region will likely hover in
the mid to upper-90s. Given how high afternoon humidity will be as
well, we will likely be looking at an extended period of Heat
Advisories. By the middle of the workweek, we may even be looking at
the need for Excessive Heat Warnings for some of our southern
counties and parishes.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

VFR conditions across the region at this hour. However, a strong
cluster of storms is expected to move across all TAF sites, except
KLFK, during the late evening and overnight period. Winds over 50
kts can't be ruled out, along with large hail. Behind the
convection, expect low clouds and possibly patchy fog to settle
into the region near daybreak, with hot and humid and conditions
to follow by the end of the TAF period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  76  96 /  70  20  10  10
MLU  72  91  72  92 /  70  40  20  10
DEQ  67  86  68  91 /  60  50  10  10
TXK  71  89  72  94 /  60  30  10  10
ELD  68  87  68  90 /  60  40  10  10
TYR  73  95  76  95 /  60  10   0   0
GGG  72  94  75  96 /  70  10   0   0
LFK  75  97  77  98 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1051 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>004-010>012-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-170400-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-
McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-
Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Rusk-Panola-
1051 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected again this evening into
the overnight as a stationary front continues to linger across the
region. Damaging winds, large hail, and dangerous lightning will be
the primary threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be completely
ruled out. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may also pose a threat
of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that train over the
same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist
through the remainder of this week and possibly into the weekend as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary is expected to linger across the
region with disturbances transitioning through the upper-level flow
pattern.

As the weekend progresses into early next week, thunderstorm chances
will largely decrease while temperatures continue to increase toward
the mid and upper 90s, to near 100 degrees, with heat advisory
conditions likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed.

ARZ073-LAZ005-006-013-014-017>022-TXZ149-152-153-165>167-170400-
Union-Lincoln-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-Cherokee-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1051 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas, north
central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into the
overnight as a stationary front continues to linger across the
region. Damaging winds, large hail, and dangerous lightning will be
the primary threats. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may also pose
a threat of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that train
over the same areas, mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist
through the remainder of this week and possibly into the weekend as
a nearly stationary frontal boundary is expected to linger across the
region with disturbances transitioning through the upper-level flow
pattern.

In addition to that, temperatures will continue to increase toward
the mid and upper 90s, to near 100 degrees, with heat advisory
conditions expected to persist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

20