After a brief reprieve from the high heat and humidity, conditions that dominated much of June returned in abundance between July 8th and 12th.
Every event with a place to put it; 25 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
After a brief reprieve from the high heat and humidity, conditions that dominated much of June returned in abundance between July 8th and 12th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 1:38 PM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 238 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 500 mb ridging centered over West Texas and North Central Mexico is slowly spreading east (over deep South Texas and the West Gulf), with broad upper troughing over the Southeast United States. Thus, the atmosphere will trend more stable and, by extension, drier. Sunday will be another warm day with slightly above average temperatures and heat index values from 105 to 110. We've seen some 110 degree heat index values this afternoon, but conditions are hanging right below the cusp of heat advisory criterion, and the same will be on tap Sunday. Gulf high pressure will support moderate south southeast winds and another day of a mix of low clouds and sun on Sunday. A weak sea breeze will be possible on Sunday, but any showers should be very isolated and are silent in the forecast. Wave heights at the beaches should remain low through Sunday night with a low risk of rip currents. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Key messages: - Dangerous heat & humidity returns next week - Heat Advisories possible just about each afternoon Not too many changes were made to the previous forecast. A robust mid/upper-level ridge will further strengthen and anchor itself over the Desert Southwest/Northwest Mexico by the start of the long-term period. South Texas will be located on the southeastern periphery of this ridge through much of the period, likely resulting in abnormally hot, humid, and dry weather into next weekend. Although daytime temperatures are expected to only be a few degrees above the seasonal normals (not anticipating daily record high temps at this time), heat indices are expected to climb to or near Heat Advisory levels (111-114F for >= 2hours) almost each afternoon. Maximum heat indices will likely vary at any given location day- to-day, and is mostly dependent on just how high(low) dewpoint temperatures are through the daytime, especially during peak heating. For what it’s worth, WPC maximum heat index probabilities continue to show between 40-70% chance of heat indices reaching or exceeding 115F for a good swath of (specifically inland locations) the BRO CWA next week. With recent rains/high soil moisture to consider, kept the blend of NBM/CONSAll, but went with a heavier lean towards the more moist NBM for dewpoint temperatures. Will continue to closely monitor RH% and Td model trends over the next few days. The mid/upper-level ridge flattens and elongates towards the end of the week, but strong subsidence aloft looks to continue into next weekend, with no signs of rain in the forecast. Additionally, guidance is hinting at another breezy to windy week ahead as a series of surface low pressure systems develop across the Plains through the week. Model guidance keeps winds just below Wind Advisory levels for now, but wind speeds may flirt with advisory levels almost each afternoon, especially across the lower RGV. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Much quieter weather today as opposed to yesterday, though a weak sea breeze is still starting to fire just inland from the coast. Scattered to broken low cumulus clouds streets dominate the landscape. Brief MVFR has occurred with decks right at 3 kft, but conditions have been for the most part VFR. Winds are moderate to breezy/gusty from the south southeast. Ridging will continue to spread overhead with Gulf high pressure driving a moderate onshore flow. Rain chances are on the downtrend for the next 24 to 36 hours. Look for scattered low clouds again on Sunday with moderate south southeast winds and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 Tonight through Sunday night...Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas this weekend. A few offshore Gulf showers or thunderstorms may linger through tonight. Monday through Friday...Not too many changes made to the previous marine forecast. Moderate to fresh onshore winds are expected to continue during the extended period. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely almost each afternoon into the early evening for the Laguna Madre and possibly the nearshore Gulf waters. Low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions cannot be ruled out on the bay for the middle part of the week. There could be an isolated shower or storm possible over the offshore Gulf waters during the daytime Monday with drier weather taking over the duration of the forecast thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 94 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 79 95 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 80 98 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 89 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 80 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....67-Mejia AVIATION...54-BHM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 353 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-092100- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island- Cameron Island- 353 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach through the entire period. Heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees are expected during the afternoon hours of the period. A Heat Advisory may be needed daily for portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-092100- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 353 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday A Small Craft Advisory is possible along the Lower Texas Coast, especially the Laguna Madre, Tuesday through Friday due to potentially strong winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
23 heat, 2 excessive heat. Local standard time, as filed.
The Brooks County Airport AWOS reported a heat index of 111 by 3:55 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 6:35 PM CDT on July 8th.
The Falcon Lake RAWS location, 28 miles northwest of Roma, reported several hours of heat index between 111 and 115 degrees. The Texas Water Development Board mesonet site at Rancho Los Comitas in far northern Starr County reported peak heat index between 106 and 110 during the same period. By proxy, it is assumed that populated Starr County locations along the Rio Grande fell somewhere in between for several hours, ranging from 111 to 113.
The McAllen-Miller International Airport ASOS station (KMFE) recorded heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 1:53PM CDT and 3:53PM CDT the afternoon of July 9th. The South Texas International Airport AWOS station (KEBG) heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 1:35PM CDT and 4:55PM CDT.
It is reasonable to infer that Northern Hidalgo County reached Heat criteria due to readings at the McAllen-Miller International Airport, South Texas International Airport, and Brooks County Airport, all of which reached criteria on July 9th.
The Texas Water Development Board Mesonet site in Sarita (TW100) in northern Kenedy County recorded heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 2:30PM CDT and 4:50PM CDT the afternoon of July 9th.
The Brooks County Airport AWOS reported a heat index of 111 by 3:55 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 7:15 PM CDT on July 9th.
The Falcon Lake RAWS location, 28 miles northwest of Roma, reported several hours of heat index between 111 and 116 degrees. The Texas Water Development Board mesonet site at Rancho Los Comitas in far northern Starr County reported peak heat index between 107 and 110 during the same period. By proxy, it is assumed that populated Starr County locations along the Rio Grande fell somewhere in between for several hours, ranging from 111 to 113.
The Harlingen-Valley International Airport ASOS reported a heat index of 111 by 1:52 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 4:52 PM CDT on July 10th. The Brownsville-South Padre International ASOS reported a heat index of 111 by 12:53 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 4:53 PM CDT.
The McAllen-Miller International Airport ASOS station (KMFE) recorded heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 12:53PM CDT and 3:53PM CDT the afternoon of July 10th. The South Texas International Airport AWOS station (KEBG) heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 1:55PM CDT and 6:15PM CDT.
It is reasonable to infer that Northern Hidalgo County reached Heat criteria due to readings at the McAllen-Miller International Airport, South Texas International Airport, and Brooks County Airport, all of which reached criteria on June 23rd.
The Cameron County Airport ASOS reported a heat index of 111 by 12:53 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 2:53 PM CDT on July 10th.
By proxy with nearby ASOS, AWOS, and Texas Water Development Board Mesonet sites, it is realistic to interpolate heat index values between 111 and 115 degrees across inland Willacy County during the afternoon of July 10th. Slightly lower values are common here compared with locations in Kenedy/Brooks and Cameron, due to the populated areas being in a zone of slightly lower, but still dangerous, high temperatures.
The Brooks County Airport AWOS reported a heat index of 111 by 12:55 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 7:35 PM CDT on July 10th. Excessive heat indices of 116 or higher were reported between 4:15PM CDT and 6:55PM CDT.
The Texas Water Development Board Mesonet site in Sarita (TW100) in northern Kenedy County recorded heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 2:20PM CDT and 4:50PM CDT the afternoon of July 10th.
The Falcon Lake RAWS location, 28 miles northwest of Roma, reported several hours of heat index between 111 and 115 degrees. The Texas Water Development Board mesonet site at Rancho Los Comitas in far northern Starr County reported peak heat index between 108 and 111 during the same period. By proxy, it is assumed that populated Starr County locations along the Rio Grande fell somewhere in between for several hours, ranging from 111 to 114.
The Texas Water Development Board Mesonet site in Sarita (TW100) in northern Kenedy County recorded heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 2:20PM CDT and 5:40PM CDT the afternoon of July 11th.
The Falcon Lake RAWS location, 28 miles northwest of Roma, reported several hours of heat index between 111 and 120 degrees. The Texas Water Development Board mesonet site at Rancho Los Comitas in far northern Starr County reported peak heat index between 108 and 111 during the same period. By proxy, it is assumed that populated Starr County locations along the Rio Grande fell somewhere in between for several hours, ranging from 112 to 115.
The Harlingen-Valley International Airport ASOS reported a heat index of 111 by 1:52 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 4:52 PM CDT on July 12th. The Brownsville-South Padre International ASOS reported a heat index of 111 by 12:53 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 2:53 PM CDT.
The Cameron County Airport ASOS reported a heat index of 111 by 12:53 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 3:53 PM CDT on July 12th.
By proxy with nearby ASOS, AWOS, and Texas Water Development Board Mesonet sites, it is realistic to interpolate heat index values between 111 and 115 degrees across inland Willacy County during the afternoon of July 12th. Slightly lower values are common here compared with locations in Kenedy/Brooks and Cameron, due to the populated areas being in a zone of slightly lower, but still dangerous, high temperatures.
The Texas Water Development Board Mesonet site in Sarita (TW100) in northern Kenedy County recorded heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 1:40PM CDT and 5:00PM CDT the afternoon of July 12th.
The McAllen-Miller International Airport ASOS station (KMFE) recorded heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 1:53PM CDT and 4:53PM CDT the afternoon of July 12th. The South Texas International Airport AWOS station (KEBG) heat indices reaching or exceeding 111 degrees between 2:15PM CDT and 4:35PM CDT.
It is reasonable to infer that Northern Hidalgo County reached Heat criteria due to readings at the McAllen-Miller International Airport, South Texas International Airport, and Brooks County Airport, all of which reached criteria on June 23rd.
The Brooks County Airport AWOS reported a heat index of 111 by 2:35 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 7:35 PM CDT on July 12th. Excessive heat indices of 116 or higher were reported between 5:15PM CDT and 6:35PM CDT.
The Zapata County Airport AWOS reported a heat index of 111 by 2:55 PM CDT, with 111 or higher values persisting until approximately 7:15 PM CDT on July 12th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1116812, 1116843, 1116824, 1116830, 1116839, 1116813, 1116844, 1116821, 1116825, 1116832, 1116836, 1116847, 1116814, 1116840, 1116845, 1116841, 1116846, 1116823, 1116837, 1116848, 1116842, 1116827, 1116833, 1116815, 1116816.