Texas, 2023

Drought in Texas, July 25 to 31, 2023

July 25 to 31, 2023 · NWS HGX · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

Drought conditions became more severe due to a lack of rainfall and persistent excessive heat.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.

Drought conditions became more severe due to a lack of rainfall and persistent excessive heat.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 10:44 PM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 24, 10:44 PM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Isolated showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier this
afternoon and evening have been decreasing in coverage. However,
there still remains a few strong cells over northwestern Harris
and eastern Waller counties that could continue to produce strong
gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. It is also
possible that outflows from these storms could result in minor
wind damage. These storms are expected to dissipate within the
next hour or so.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Southeast TX through 8pm CDT
this evening (Monday).

A mid to upper level high continues to sit over New Mexico/the Texas
Panhandle, which leaves us just close enough to continue to have
above normal temperatures with highs near 100°F. This also leaves us
just far enough away to be on the eastern fringes of the upper level
high to still remain in northwesterly flow aloft, which means
shortwaves coming downstream can provide lift (PVA) for the in place
moisture. Combine this with our typical afternoon sea breeze moving
inland and a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across
the area, and we have...well that *gestures at radar reflectivity*.
Scattered showers and storms began developing along the coast in the
late morning hours and additional convection will develop further
inland towards the mid afternoon through the evening along the sea
breeze and any additional outflow boundaries. With little to no
steering flow aloft and low shear, these storms have featured
limited movement as they pop up. So, one area could receive an inch
of rainfall and the next street over could see nothing. DCAPE around
1500 J/kg, steep sfc-3km lapse rates around 8-9°C/km, and a dry sfc-
1km layer indicates that strong winds will be possible in some of
these storms (likely in the form of a downburst) along with locally
heavy rainfall with PW values reaching near the 90th percentile at
times (~2.17").

Things get a bit more interesting tomorrow with the arrival of a
plume of Saharan dust in the late morning/early afternoon hours. I
won't bore y'all with the super in-depth explanation like I did last
week, but just know that the dust plume will play a role in the rain
forecast and heat index forecast. The 12Z CAMs are in agreement with
less convection coverage tomorrow due to the drier air moving in,
and with the increase in dust particulate as well it's a bit
uncertain on how much rain will actually reach the surface (smaller
droplets evaporate easier). In addition to that, the subsidence
inversion layer aloft (~800-750mb) looks quite a bit more robust
tomorrow, so PoPs were reduced a bit in the afternoon. The drier air
will also keep heat index values from becoming too elevated, and as
of right now look to max out in the 102-107°F range. This is with
Tuesday's high temperatures being just about the same as today's, if
not a degree or so warmer. Resultingly, we are not planning on
issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday. All that being said, it will
still be fairly hot so please continue to take the proper heat
safety precautions.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Western ridging will expand eastward into the Southern Plains and
Tennessee Valley. We'll remain on the southern periphery of the
ridge with prevailing easterlies in the mid levels.

Somewhat hazy skies are anticipated in the Wed-Fri timeframe with
some dust making its way northward from the Gulf and into the
area. Temps should remain about status quo...still above normal
with highs in the 96-102 range inland and low 90s at the beaches.
Lows around 80 or a touch below. Heat indices will probably peak
in the 105-108 range...maybe a bit higher this weekend depending
on the finer details in the eventual strength of the ridge, its
southern extent, and moisture/wind profiles in the llvls.

As far as rain chances go: they'll be pretty slim the further
inland from the coast one goes with increasing subsidence dominating.
Chances closer to the coast will be on the low side, but at least
non-zero thanks to the seabreeze and the potential for some embedded
disturbances tracking west under the ridge.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

VFR conditions currently across SE TX with light S winds. MVFR
cigs are possible for a few hours early Tue morning along with
isolated/patchy fog. Cigs and fog will lift and scatter out
shortly after sunrise. Winds will gradually strengthen Tue
afternoon to 6-12 KTS. Iso SH/TS are possible Tue afternoon,
mainly in and near the sea/bay breeze. Strong gusty winds, heavy
rain and lightning are possible in and around TS activity.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Typical summer diurnally driven wind/wx pattern is expected.
Onshore winds 5-15kt (highest at night offshore, and in the bays
during the day). Seas generally in the 2-3ft range. Isolated-
scattered late night & morning showers/storms.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  76 100  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)			  78  99  79  98 /  40  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)			  81  90  82  91 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Adams

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Coastal Harris

When
July 25, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Coastal Harris forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.857, -95.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

With a lack of rainfall and constant extreme heat throughout the month of July, the U.S. Drought Monitor classification was increased to Severe Drought (D2) on July 25. This resulted in the institution of burn bans across large portions of SE TX.

Drought, Chambers

When
July 25, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Chambers forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.708, -94.671 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

With a lack of rainfall and constant extreme heat throughout the month of July, the U.S. Drought Monitor classification was increased to Severe Drought (D2) on July 25. This resulted in the institution of burn bans across large portions of SE TX.

Drought, Northern Liberty

When
July 25, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Northern Liberty forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
30.152, -94.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

With a lack of rainfall and constant extreme heat throughout the month of July, the U.S. Drought Monitor classification was increased to Severe Drought (D2) on July 25. This resulted in the institution of burn bans across large portions of SE TX.

Drought, Southern Liberty

When
July 25, 12:00 AM CST to July 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Southern Liberty forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
30.152, -94.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

With a lack of rainfall and constant extreme heat throughout the month of July, the U.S. Drought Monitor classification was increased to Severe Drought (D2) on July 25. This resulted in the institution of burn bans across large portions of SE TX.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1127216, 1127217, 1127218, 1127219.