Upslope flow into northeastern New Mexico generated convection off the Raton Mesa and slowly drifted to the southeast towards West Texas on the afternoon and evening of the 15th. These thunderstorms reached the area early in the morning of the 16th and produced several severe wind gusts from the extreme southern Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Upslope flow into northeastern New Mexico generated convection off the Raton Mesa and slowly drifted to the southeast towards West Texas on the afternoon and evening of the 15th. These thunderstorms reached the area early in the morning of the 16th and produced several severe wind gusts from the extreme southern Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 5:25 PM CST, 6 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This afternoon's focus is on a likely MCS rolling across the forecast area tonight. Moist upslope flow onto the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and the Raton Mesa is already generating convection there, and it is this convection that is the genesis of our expected MCS. Some isolated storms are possible downstream from that across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico late this afternoon to early evening in areas of differential heating that have formed along dissipating stratus. These storms, should they form, have the chance to produce some supercell characteristics, but are likely to remain west of the forecast area before being overrun by the congealing high terrain storms and their resultant line/complex. High quality inflow with overnight CAPE values remaining in excess of 1000 J/kg along with favorable shear support this MCS remaining intact across the forecast area while also supporting a damaging wind threat, and given high PWATs, a heavy rain threat as well. Will continue with a broad swath of likely PoPs across the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area where most likely patch of the MCS is. Rain-cooled outflow should result in cooler overnight lows than seen the last several mornings, at least in line with NBM, if not a bit cooler. Storms could linger across the eastern counties past 12Z Sunday, but subsidence behind the departing line during the morning and underneath a reasserting upper ridge should keep storms at bay during the afternoon while also starting the trend toward hotter temperatures after our brief cool departure today. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Hot and dry conditions will be the main story next week. A strong upper ridge will gradually build over the region, pushing temperatures well into the 100s, with Tuesday likely being the hottest day. Highs of near 110 will not be out of the question for portions of the forecast area, mainly on the Caprock. Thus, a Heat Advisory may be needed. As an upper low moves over the northern US, shortwaves will propagate along the northern periphery of the ridge, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and continuing into the weekend, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. Much of the current consensus is that these chances will be focused on the far southern Texas Panhandle, though it remains too early to pinpoint specific details. However, the ridge axis will shift westward as it amplifies by next weekend, thus precipitation may be able to move farther south. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Convection is currently expected at PVW and LBB after 06Z tonight with showers and thunderstorms remaining at least in the vicinity through sunrise. Thunderstorms should push through the two terminals as a line of storms with wind gusts up to 50 knots and heavy rainfall being the main hazards. CDS should remain east of much of the convection, though some showers and thunderstorms could still be possible late evening into the early morning. AS confidence is low with coverage and timing, VCTS will remain prevailing at CDS. Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the terminals by 15Z. VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...51
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 TXZ021>044-160930- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico late this afternoon, increasing in coverage and shifting eastward over the far southern Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and the Rolling Plains late tonight. Wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to the size of quarters, and a tornado or two are possible with these storms. Heavy rainfall may also result in localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Hot temperatures will return to the region Monday through Wednesday which may require a Heat Advisory for portions of the area. Low chances for thunderstorms return across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday. Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible on Friday across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the South Plains and northern Rolling Plains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late tonight.
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:28 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Happy measured severe wind gusts from 2330 CST through 2331 CST. A peak wind gust of 61 mph was measured at 2331 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near McAdoo measured severe wind gusts from 0109 CST through 0111 CST. A peak wind gust of 62 mph at 0109 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Roaring Springs measured a wind gust to 59 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Guthrie measured a wind gust to 59 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Paducah measured severe wind gusts from 0215 CST through 0221 CST. A peak wind gust of 61 mph was measured at 0216 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104711, 1104713, 1104714, 1104717, 1104718.