Extremely hot and dry conditions on the afternoon of the 12th created isolated thunderstorms underneath an inverted V sounding profile. One thunderstorm in particular over northwestern Dickens County produced severe wind gusts in excess of 70 mph at the Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near McAdoo.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Extremely hot and dry conditions on the afternoon of the 12th created isolated thunderstorms underneath an inverted V sounding profile. One thunderstorm in particular over northwestern Dickens County produced severe wind gusts in excess of 70 mph at the Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near McAdoo.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 1:47 PM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 247 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 A heat advisory will continue until 9pm this evening. Isolated high based thunderstorms are likely to develop over the South Plains and portions of the southern Panhandle this afternoon or early evening and then taper off fairly quickly as surface heating diminishes this evening. Some of the morning MOS guidance as well as the CAMS models were giving significant pops this evening, as high as 38% off the NAM. The 18Z CAMS were backing off the amount of convection in comparison to the 12Z guidance. Our thoughts remain that the activity will be more isolated with pops of 10-20 percent easily enough. Temperatures at 700mb are running very warm (17-19C), Soundings take on an inverted V profile which is favorable for isolated downburst winds under the stronger showers. A low level jet is expected to redevelop overnight helping keep surface winds and temperatures up and could aid in the need for another heat advisory tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 The upper ridge supplying the heat will back off to the west a bit late week into the weekend as a large upper low sinks southward through central Canada. This will result in modest cooling locally as heights and thicknesses decrease, and highs may briefly reside close to average levels this weekend. Thereafter, the upper ridge will exert itself again, expanding eastward out of the Desert Southwest as the upper low well to our north exits via the Great Lakes in advance of the next system moving into the Pacific Northwest. The result will be a return to hotter weather, with many locations seeing triple digit highs again next week. Regarding precipitation chances, intense heating, decent residual mid-level moisture within the dirty ridge and weak convergence along a surface trough will likely be sufficient to initiate isolated to scattered high-based convection Thursday afternoon, primarily across the southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. This activity will drift eastward into the evening hours before fading. Decent mid-level moisture will support locally heavy downpours, while the hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will favor strong to severe downburst winds with the most intense cores. Farther north, a MCS is likely to develop and spread south-southeastward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas into western Oklahoma Thursday evening/night. There is a low chance this activity could clip our northeast zones early Friday, but the better bet will be that it propels an outflow-enhanced front into our northern zones Friday morning. Unfortunately, it does appear this front will stall and then retreat northward during the afternoon, taking the cooler air and better storm chances with it. However, in response to the retreating upper ridge, our mid-level flow will gain a northwesterly component. This will increase our chances of seeing convection that develops over the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico move into the northwestern/northern zones Friday evening/night. Additionally, a renewed southward push to the frontal boundary should bring it back into the CWA early Saturday, where it is progged to linger through the day. The boundary could serve as a focus for afternoon storm development, though the more likely scenario is an MCS rolling southeastward out of New Mexico Saturday evening/night. Given stronger mid-level northwesterly flow atop relatively moist easterly low-level flow, and an embedded mid-level disturbance, this activity should persist well into the night, potentially affecting much/all of the FA. If this pans out, Sunday morning will start out on the mild and humid side, but drier air aloft and at the surface will gradually build in through early next week as the upper ridge expands back over West Texas. Hotter temperatures, along with dry and breezy conditions will be the net result for the early to middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period. Southwesterly winds will be modest, gradually calming through the evening. There remains a slight chance for an afternoon isolated thunderstorm to develop after 20Z in the vicinity of KPVW and KLBB terminals. A period of strong wind and/or reduced visibility will be possible with these storms. Overnight the LLJ kicks in producing strong winds over KCDS. Around sunrise, we can expect the LLWS conditions to end as the LLJ decreases. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025-026-031>044. && SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...12
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 TXZ021>044-131900- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM CDT this evening for the central and southern South Plains, the Rolling Plains, and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures near or in excess of 105 degrees are expected across the South Plains with heat indices around 110 degrees across the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. In addition, isolated high based thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and early evening across the southern Texas Panhandle into the South Plains. Brief downpours and wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible with the most intense activity. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Temperatures will approach Heat Advisory criteria once again on Thursday afternoon over southern portions of the South Plains into the Rolling Plains. Thunderstorm chances will return to the region Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. Damaging wind gusts and brief heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 76 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:20 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near McAdoo measured intermittent severe wind gusts from 1621 CST through 1630 CST. A peak wind gust of 72 mph was measured at 1629 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104493.