Drought in Texas, January 24 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
505 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Main points:

- Expanded Winter Storm Warning to include OKC and areas from
  Taloga to Chandler. Wet bulb temperatures are already near or
  below 32 and there is a signal of higher QPF today.

- Still some bust potential either way. Could see higher amounts
  than forecast if temperatures are slightly cooler than forecast
  given some of the high forecast QPF. But could see lower amounts
  than forecast (especially in the south) where it may take some
  time to cool the column and delay the transition from rain to
  snow.

And the fun begins. Precipitation area is spreading in to our
southwestern counties. KFDR shows a bright banding area indicating
a melting later still above the surface, but the elevation seems
to be lowering some. And we are beginning to see the response in
the temperature/dewpoint profile approaching the wet bulb
temperatures at some of the west Texas and Oklahoma mesonet
stations in the southwest as precipitation falls and saturates
the lower levels. Wet bulb temperatures are falling in these areas
as well showing that there will likely be an quick transition to
snow where the wet bulb is not too high. But higher temperatures
and wet bulb temperatures will likely delay the rain to snow
transition as the precip moves farther east.

The wet bulb 32 temperature area lies east-west roughly near or
just north of the Interstate 40 area. So snow will be likely from
the onset in these areas. And with this and some of the forecast
QPF, have expanded the north side of the warning to include the
rest of the OKC metro and areas from Taloga to Guthrie to
Chandler.

Have tried to play a middle ground in the snowfall forecast
balancing that we are at the cusp of rain vs. snow thermodynamics
that could lead to lower amounts in some areas where there may be
a delayed transition, and potential higher amounts given the QPF
forecast in areas where it is mostly snow. Given the current
trend of thermodynamics, we could see some locally higher amounts
where there is any mesoscale banding, and we will continue to
watch trends and make any adjustments to the overall forecast
snow totals as evidence presents itself.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

A quieter weather pattern is expected after the exit of the
current winter storm with generally northwest flow aloft through
Friday which then transitions to more zonal this weekend. A wave
in the flow approaches this weekend which gives some potential
for some showers in the southeast. Cool temperatures mid-week warm
each day through Saturday, then cool again for Sunday behind a
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Rain and snow is moving in from the southwest and will gradually
overspread the forecast area. With this widespread precipitation,
expect IFR ceilings and visibilities to develop and persist
through most of the TAF period (the precipitation itself should
wane this evening). Winds will remain fairly light, coming around
to the north this afternoon and evening.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  30  39  22 / 100  90   0   0
Hobart OK         35  25  40  20 / 100  70   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  29  43  22 / 100  80   0   0
Gage OK           33  23  41  20 / 100  60   0   0
Ponca City OK     36  29  40  19 /  90  90   0   0
Durant OK         40  32  46  26 / 100  90   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for OKZ004>013-
     020-044>048-050>052.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for OKZ014>019-
     021>043.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ086>090.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ083>085.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
457 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
457 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Winter Weather...
A winter storm will impact the area today and tonight. Heavy snow
is expected across much of Oklahoma and western north Texas, with
the highest amounts possible in central and western Oklahoma.
Precipitation will begin as rain before changing over to snow
during the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

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