Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2023

Name: Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2023
Start: 2023-02-01T00:00
End: 2023-02-28T23:59
Location: Texas

February 1 to 28, 2023 · NWS EWX · 17 events in 17 counties and zones

February was another dry month across South Central Texas. Most of the area received less than 50% of normal precipitation.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 17

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

February was another dry month across South Central Texas. Most of the area received less than 50% of normal precipitation. This worsened the drought in several counties. Burnet and Uvalde Counties went from Severe (D2) drought to Extreme (D3) drought and Llano and Real went from less than D2 to D3. Everywhere else was unchanged. Dimmit, Guadalupe, Kinney, and Zavala stayed in D2. Bandera, Bexar, Gillespie, Hays, Kerr, and Medina stayed in D3. Blanco, Comal, and Kendall stayed in Exceptional (D4) drought. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought Bandera, Bexar, Dimmit, Kendall, Kerr, Llano, Real, Uvalde, and Zavala Counties had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month. The 7-day average streamflow at the end of the month was much below normal (<10%) on the Medina River, below normal (10%-24%) on the San Antonio River, much below normal on the Guadalupe River, and much below normal on the upper Colorado River. The Edwards Aquifer was down slightly to 32.8 feet below average. Area reservoirs were below normal conservation pool elevation. Medina Lake dropped 2.3 feet to 81.6 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.5 feet to 11.2 feet below normal. Most public water systems encouraged at least voluntary water restrictions and many had mandatory restrictions in effect. Some the larger services had the following: New Braunfels Stage 1, San Antonio Stage 2, and Kerrville Stage 1.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:15 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 11:15 PM CST, 45 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1115 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Early this afternoon, most of the precipitation is currently focused
along the I-35 corridor, with the freezing line approximately
extending from Boerne to San Marcos to La Grange. As we head into
the evening hours, the main area of precipitation is expected to
shift south and eastward into the Coastal Plains, with a relative
lull in activity for the remainder of south-central Texas. The exact
location and duration of freezing temperatures continues to remain
the most difficult aspect of the forecast, but at this time it
appears that with the exception of the Rio Grande Plains and areas
south of US Hwy 90 from San Antonio towards Del Rio, most locations
across south-central Texas will at least briefly see freezing
temperatures tonight. Areas that are still at or below freezing this
afternoon across northern portions of the CWA will continue to
remain at or below freezing through at least tomorrow morning.

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning, increasing upper level
energy and forcing for ascent is expected as a trough currently over
northern Baja California approaches from the west. This should
result in increased precipitation activity across south-central
Texas, and will be the main period of focus for the greatest ice
accumulations through the remainder of the period. This is
especially true for any areas that see convective elements move
through, which will be possible as lapse rates begin to increase in
the mid-levels. With the exception for areas near the Rio Grande,
widespread precipitation is expected to continue through tomorrow
afternoon and into Thursday morning across the CWA as the
aforementioned trough continues to encroach upon the region.
Temperature wise, most areas across the Hill Country will remain at
or below freezing into early Thursday morning. Along the northern I-
35 corridor, including the Austin Metro, temperatures are expected
to briefly rise a couple of degrees above freezing tomorrow
afternoon, then reach or drop just below freezing tomorrow evening,
and then likely warm overnight into Thursday due to a combination of
latent heat release from the precipitation and weakening/shifting
surface high pressure to our northeast. Elsewhere, once temperatures
rise above freezing tomorrow, the current guidance suggests they
will remain that way through Wednesday night. This does include a
handful of counties under Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories which are
all valid until 6am Thursday. If the current trends continue, then
these select counties may have their warnings/advisories cancelled
early. For now though, the hazards will remain status quo. For this
afternoon through Wednesday night, our latest ice accumulation
forecast shows additional accumulations ranging from 0.50-0.75"
across much of the Hill Country with totals decreasing to the south
and east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

After the several rounds of showers in the short term, dew points and
min temps start off just below freezing as the final round of showers
moves across the area with the base of the upper trough about to
cross TX. Cold air advection weakens in the late morning, and the
picks up again in the afternoon as the a deeper NW flow pattern
develops behind the departing trough. Mostly sunny skies and weak
downsloping influences to the winds should help melt residual ice
over the area, but the melting process will also lead to limited
warming potential over areas along and north of I-10. High temps over
the northern counties including parts of Austin metro may see temps
struggling to get out of the 30s. The winds aren't fully decoupled
for Friday morning, so there should only be a few areas to fall back
into the 20s, and the SAT area may even remain above freezing.

A more robust warming trend is expected for Friday after a full day
of sunshine despite cold air advection continuing. Lighter winds
Friday night will lead to colder lows and more low lying areas
dropping into the 20s. South winds hasten the warming trend for
Saturday but this could be offset by a slight increase in cloud
cover. Near normal temps are forecast for Sunday into Monday, and
then a low chance for rain and cold front pulls temps back below
normals for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Precipitation continues to increase across the region and with
temperatures at or below freezing at SAT and AUS, we will mention
prevailing -FZRA for the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. The
Airport Weather Warning (AWW) remains in effect for AUS until Noon
Wednesday and we have also issued an AWW for SAT as well. We kept the
precipitation as all liquid for SSF and DRT. Cigs are expected to
remain upper end MVFR for the next hour or two along I-35, the trend
to IFR as precipitation increases. MVFR cigs persist a little longer
at DRT, but will eventually trend down to IFR around daybreak.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              30  34  32  45 /  70  90 100  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  28  34  31  46 /  70  90 100  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     30  36  33  48 /  80  80 100  20
Burnet Muni Airport            28  32  30  42 /  50  90 100  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           38  43  39  60 /  70  70  60  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        28  33  31  44 /  60  90 100  40
Hondo Muni Airport             32  37  35  56 /  80  70  80  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        29  36  32  47 /  80  80 100  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   31  36  34  45 /  50  80  90  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       32  36  35  50 /  80  80  90  20
Stinson Muni Airport           34  37  36  52 /  80  70  90  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for Bandera-Bastrop-
Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Edwards-Fayette-Gillespie-
Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Lee-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-
Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for Atascosa-De
Witt-Karnes-Kinney-Lavaca-Uvalde.

&&

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Quigley
Aviation...Platt

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 2:47 PM CST, 9 hours 13 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-012100-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
247 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winter Storm Warnings and a Winter Weather Advisory remain in
effect through 6 AM CST Thursday across the majority of South
Central Texas outside of the Winter Garden region. Significant
icing is expected to develop tonight and spread over the Hill
Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and I-35 Corridor, resulting in
major travel disruptions and possible power outages. Non-emergency
travel is strongly discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Winter Storm Warnings and a Winter Weather Advisory remain in
effect through 6 AM CST Thursday across the majority of South
Central Texas outside of the Winter Garden region. Significant
icing is expected to continue through Wednesday morning over the
Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and I-35 Corridor,
resulting in major travel disruptions and possible power outages.
Non-emergency travel is strongly discouraged.

Temperatures should finally warm above freezing for all of South
Central Texas by mid morning Thursday, with icing concerns ending
for the entire region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 31, 6:26 PM CST, 5 hours 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     FREEZING RAIN    2 E SUNSET VALLEY       30.23N 97.78W
01/31/2023  E0.10 INCH       TRAVIS             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
            OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES
            NEAR ST DAVIDS SOUTH MEDICAL CENTER. REPORT
            RELAYED VIA TWITTER.

&&

AQ

Local storm report, Jan 31, 9:02 PM CST, 2 hours 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
902 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FREEZING RAIN    4 SW LULING             29.65N 97.70W
01/31/2023  U0.00 INCH       GUADALUPE          TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TXDOT DRIVE TEXAS WEBPAGE REPORTS ICING
            ALONG THE I-10 OVERPASS AT HIGHSMITH RD FOUR
            MILES SOUTHWEST OF LULING. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR AND METAR DATA.

&&

AQ

Local storm report, Jan 31, 10:36 PM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     FREEZING RAIN    9 SSE LLANO             30.62N 98.64W
01/31/2023  E0.50 INCH       LLANO              TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF APPROXIMATELY ONE HALF INCH
            OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREE BRANCHES ALONG
            CR312 AT RILEY MOUNTAIN SOUTHEAST OF LLANO.
            PHOTOGRAPH RELAYED VIA TWITTER.

&&

AQ

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Bandera

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Bandera forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.747, -99.246 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Bexar

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Bexar forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.449, -98.520 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Blanco

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Blanco forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.266, -98.400 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Burnet

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Burnet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.788, -98.182 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Comal

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Comal forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.808, -98.278 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Dimmit

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dimmit forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 28.423, -99.757 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Gillespie

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Gillespie forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.318, -98.946 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Guadalupe

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Guadalupe forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.583, -97.949 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Hays

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Hays forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.058, -98.031 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kendall

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kendall forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.945, -98.712 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kerr

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kerr forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.062, -99.350 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kinney

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kinney forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.350, -100.418 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Llano

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Llano forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.706, -98.684 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Medina

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Medina forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.356, -99.110 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Real

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Real forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.832, -99.822 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Uvalde

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Uvalde forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.357, -99.762 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Zavala

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Zavala forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 28.866, -99.761 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, February 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1080852, 1080853, 1080854, 1080855, 1080856, 1080857, 1080858, 1080859, 1080860, 1080861, 1080862, 1080863, 1080864, 1080865, 1080866, 1080867, 1080868.