Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1051 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM CST Tue
Jan 31 2023

Southwest flow aloft continues to dominate the pattern for our
area ahead of the next system currently over the northern Baja
Peninsula. Visible satellite imagery shows high clouds filling in
while low clouds begin to retreat from north to south. This trend
will persist through the overnight hours into tomorrow. While
still cold with lows well below average, tomorrow morning will be
too dry for the light snow/flurries of the past couple mornings
to make a return (some power plant flurries can't be ruled out).
Light southerly winds will help bring some modest warming
tomorrow, but daytime highs may still struggle to get into the
lower 40's in spots.

Our precip chances return Wednesday evening into Thursday morning
as PVA associated with the aforementioned system advances into
the southern plains. Bottom line: highest confidence in
potentially impactful winter weather exists for southeast
portions of the Texas Panhandle, with higher uncertainty to the
north and west. Some of the details of this forecast that still
need fine tuning are: 1) What type of precip will be dominant, 2)
How far north will the precip shield extend, and 3) timing of a
weak cold front Thursday morning.

In regards to precip type, forecast soundings vary greatly from
model to model. The depth and extent of the melting layer suggest
freezing rain would be dominant to the southeast, but more
marginal profiles to the north and west make it difficult to
settle on snow/sleet or freezing rain. More than likely precip
will start as a wintry mix transitioning to snow. 12z hi-res
guidance indicates that precip could reach farther north into the
southern Texas Panhandle than previously forecast, while medium
and long range guidance still tend to keep the action further
south. Current thinking is to go with the hi-res solution,
therefore have gone with the NBM to slightly increase PoPs in the
south/southeast. Early Thursday morning, a weak cold front will
move into the area from the north, but uncertainties in the onset
of drier air behind the front will greatly affect our precip
chances. Some models have the front through the area by 9z
Thursday morning, which would shift the better precip chances
south of the CWA. Long range ensembles along with several CAMs
are trending toward a slower solution with the front that would
keep the dry air further north, not making it through the CWA
until closer to 12z. This outcome has higher membership
(agreement), so there is a possibility for precip to linger later
into Thursday morning, but all precip should be ending before
noon. Another outcome worth mentioning is the possibility for dry
air at the mid-levels to push in from the southwest and dry us out
before we get anything of interest.

Given the chance to see potentially impactful accumulations of
freezing rain, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued through
18z Thursday for our southeast counties. Adjacent areas on the
Caprock will need to be watched closely as some models are hinting
at the possibly for impactful snowfall Wednesday night (1"-2"),
but confidence is too low at this time to include in an advisory.
As the system exits our area Thursday afternoon, skies begin to
clear out and temps quickly warm into the low 50's. Light winds
and clear skies Thursday night will allow lows to drop into the
teens and twenties.

Harrel/Ward

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Friday through the weekend will see a warming trend as height
rises occur as the upper trough departs to our east and ridging
arrives from the west. Temperatures should even get above normal
this weekend with highs in the 60s which will be welcome after
spending the last week well below normal. Conditions should be
dry. A very brief/weak disturbance Friday into Saturday could
bring some cloud cover in mid levels, that should be about it.

The next active period weather wise may begin early next week as
the ridge is progged to break down with another fairly strong /
high amplitude trough moving across the western CONUS. There are
a few models/ensemble members suggesting a closed low may cutoff
from the mean flow and affect the southern plains by mid week
which will certainly be worth watching. In any case, chances are
favorable for below normal temperatures for most of next week with
precip chances returning, so enjoy the weekend!

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Skies are expected remain MVFR at AMA through about mid day on
Wednesday, then they should become VFR. Skies at DHT are expected
to drop into the IFR range just before sunrise and then skies
should improve to VFR by mid day on Wednesday. Skies at GUY are
expected to drop down to the IFR range late tonight and they
should improve to VFR by late in the morning on Wednesday. Winds
are expected to remain around 10 knots or less. Some precipitation
in the form of snow or freezing rain may make a run at the AMA TAF
site late in this forecast, but have left it out for now as
confidence is not very high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                16  42  23  51 /   0  10  20  10
Beaver OK                   9  41  17  52 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK               8  42  14  49 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  16  45  22  55 /   0   0  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              16  45  20  52 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  17  43  23  52 /   0  10  30  20
Clarendon TX               17  35  24  52 /   0  20  40  20
Dalhart TX                  9  42  15  50 /   0   0  10   0
Guymon OK                   8  42  15  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                17  43  22  52 /   0  10  30  20
Lipscomb TX                13  40  19  52 /   0   0  10  10
Pampa TX                   16  40  22  52 /   0   0  20  10
Shamrock TX                17  35  23  52 /   0  20  30  20
Wellington TX              19  33  23  51 /   0  30  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for TXZ015-018>020.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
206 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-010815-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
206 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible late Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday morning mainly in the central and
southern half of the Texas Panhandle. A light glaze of ice up to
around 0.10" is expected in the southeastern Texas Panhandle where
a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 3 PM tomorrow
through 9 AM Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.