Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1047 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Expecting our final round of winter weather returning Wednesday
morning as the upper level wave will be coming through.  A wintry
mix with freezing rain as dominant after sunrise through the
reminder of the morning across northern Texas into all of southern
Oklahoma. Wintry mixed POPs extend up to I-40 in western through
central Oklahoma by the afternoon on. Forecast soundings showing a
cooling of the warm nose to more sleet being the dominant type of
mix through the afternoon. Vertical ascent will be strongest across
northern Texas through southcentral into southeast Oklahoma where
the highest probabilities will be in place and will likely see the
highest impact of ice. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning for sleet
and freezing rain will remain in effect there as well. Could see ice
glazing from freezing rain over 1/4 inch thick with an additional
1/2 inch of sleet in the warning area.   A Winter Weather Advisory
will be in effect over the lower probability areas, generally
southwest, western and central Oklahoma where the impact should be
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Mixed wintry precipitation with sleet being the dominant type will
be ongoing Wednesday evening and overnight across all but far
northern Oklahoma as the upper trough axis moves through on
Thursday. Forecast sounding showing periods of sleet to freezing
rain as the dendritic zone remains saturated with a warm nose
sufficient for partial to full melting down to the subfreezing
surface. The good news is that surface temperatures (dry & wet bulb)
will gradually warm above freezing into the afternoon as the wintry
mix transitions and ends into a "cold" rain.  Rain chances will
gradually end into southeast Oklahoma by the evening as the upper
trough moves off to our east.

A cold front pushing down through Kansas will come through late
Thursday.  Although a colder Thursday night behind the front with
clear night skies, the 1000-850 mb thicknesses suggesting the more
frigid Canadian air should lag up in the Central Plains and
Midwestern Regions.  With a return of south winds on Friday, will
see a warming trend above climatically average that will continue
into the weekend as a weak ridge starts building in from out of our
west.  South winds could be a bit gusty on Saturday with a tight
pressure gradient as we mix into a strong low-level jet developing
Friday night. Our warming trend will peak on Monday as temperatures
soar well into the 60s.  Another trough develops out west pushing
another cold front through on Tuesday returning temperatures back to
seasonably average.  This system may bring a return of rain across
parts of our area that could transition back to a wintry mix on
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Cigs will lower through the day tomorrow as we moisten top-down
during the afternoon and evening hours. MVFR cig development
expected latter portion of forecast as precipitation increases in
coverage, mainly after 00Z. Primary precipitation type still
expected to start off as PL and transition to more FZRA with time
(especially at KSPS and KLAW). Winds will stay light and variable
through tomorrow afternoon, with a dominate light south wind
latter portion of forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  18  33  28  45 /   0  20  40  20
Hobart OK         17  34  26  48 /   0  30  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  22  29  27  43 /  10  80  70  40
Gage OK           12  38  23  52 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     15  36  24  50 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         23  33  30  40 /  20  80  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for OKZ014>031-
     033>040-044.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for OKZ032-041>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for TXZ083>085.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for TXZ090.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     TXZ086>089.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for TXZ086>089.

&&

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
500 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-012300-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
500 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Wintry Weather...
A final round of wintry mixed precipitation is expected Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Freezing rain and sleet during the morning,
across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, is expected to
transition to all freezing rain Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Significant ice accumulations are possible across south
central and southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas. Power
outages and tree damage due to ice are likely and travel could be
nearly impossible.

Farther north across central and western Oklahoma, sleet will be
possible Wednesday afternoon through the evening hours,
transitioning to light freezing rain overnight Wednesday night.
Light ice accumulations are expected with some impact to travel,
especially untreated roadways.

Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing during the day
Thursday.

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