Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1104 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

The main story for the short term period will be the below normal
temperatures across the county warning area.

Temperatures today have remained chilly with highs only in the 40s
and even a few upper 30s across the region. These cool temperatures
will stick around through the forecast period as a cold air
continues to filter in and settle across Deep South Texas behind
yesterdays cold front. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the mid
30s across the northern Ranchlands to near 40 in the Valley. Island
areas will remain the warm spot with lows remaining in the 40s.
Temperatures do not budge much over the remaining 24 hours as the
cold air remains settled over the area.

Not only will it be cold, but southwesterly flow at the mid-levels
is leading to overrunning. This will keep the dreary and
rainy/drizzly conditions in place though Wednesday night. On the
plus side, we are not expecting any freezing temperatures or frozen
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

A 500mb shortwave runs from West Texas through northeast Texas
into Friday as high pressure builds, bringing clearing skies and
dry conditions from west to east across Deep South Texas for the
weekend. Moderate northerly winds late Thursday into Friday
afternoon will mark the last real push of CAA for this event.
Onshore flow returns into the weekend, with additional cold
mornings on Saturday and Sunday due to efficient radiational
cooling under clear skies. Near normal highs are expected Saturday
and Sunday. A weak frontal boundary is possible on Sunday with
little to no fanfare at this time, potentially even stalling just
north of the CWA. Above normal temperatures return with breezy to
windy southeasterly onshore flow Monday into Tuesday, returning
80s to most locations by early to mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

IFR to LIFR conditions and moderate northwesterly winds will
continue to impact all three TAF sites through the next 24 hours.
This is primarily due to an overrunning pattern that will maintain
an overcast IFR/LIFR cloud deck, a chance for some light rain or
drizzle, and reduced visibilities generally 3 to 6 SM.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Now through Wednesday Night...Buoy 42020 reported north winds at
19 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly over 6 feet
at 12:50 CST/1850 UTC. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
will continue through this afternoon as winds remain slightly
elevated in wake of the cold front. Winds and seas will continue
to increase this evening, with Small Craft Advisories for the
offshore Gulf waters beginning tonight and lasting into early
Wednesday morning. Winds and seas will begin to relax a bit for
Wednesday though Small Craft Caution will still be likely on the
Gulf waters.

Thursday through Tuesday...Moderate northerly winds arrive along
the western Gulf Thursday as high pressure builds into the region.
This will drive Small Craft Caution to Small Craft Advisory
conditions into Friday afternoon. Light onshore flow returns for
the weekend, with more favorable marine conditions before
increasing southeasterly winds Monday into Tuesday bring back
hazardous winds and seas. Rain chances continue through Thursday
but work further offshore into Friday afternoon, with a dry
weekend expected to continue into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             41  45  42  56 /  60  20  30  20
HARLINGEN               40  44  41  59 /  60  20  50  20
MCALLEN                 40  43  42  61 /  70  30  40  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         40  44  42  64 /  70  40  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      47  50  47  57 /  70  30  60  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     42  46  43  58 /  70  30  50  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...69-Farris

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
549 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-011130-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
549 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Apparent, or "feels like" temperatures, will continue in the
upper 20s to around 30 across the Brush Country to the Kenedy and
Brooks County ranches, and 30 to 35 across the Rio Grande Valley.
Persons exposed to the cold without adequate protection could
experience minor hypothermia.

At the beaches, dangerous rip currents will continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Wednesday through Thursday morning: Apparent, or "feels like"
temperatures,  will continue in the upper 20s to around 30 across
the Brush Country to the Kenedy and Brooks County ranches, and 30
to 35 across the Rio Grande Valley. Persons exposed to the cold
without adequate protection could experience minor hypothermia.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at the beaches.

Friday morning: Apparent temperatures will drop to between 30 and
35 across the region between midnight and 8 AM.

Monday: South to southeast winds may increase to 25 mph with gusts
to 35 or 40 mph across the lower Valley, with potential impacts to
east-west driving and unfastened lightweight items.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011130-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
549 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

Updated for strong winds and higher seas into Friday.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

North winds 20 knots and gusty along with rough and high seas of 6
feet, up to 8 feet in spots, will continue making boating
difficult for small craft. Visibility may drop to 1 nautical mile
at times in drizzle or light rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Wednesday through Thursday: North winds 15 to 20 knots and gusty
will continue along with somewhat rough seas 5 to 6 feet.
Visibility may drop to 1 nautical mile at times in drizzle or
light rain.

Thursday Night through Friday over the Gulf: North winds will
increase to 25 to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts Thursday
night and Friday before quickly diminishing late Friday and Friday
night. Seas will remain rough and build to 7 or 8 feet before
gradually subsiding Friday afternoon and night.

Monday: South to southeast winds may increase to 20 knots and
gusty, especially on Laguna Madre, and similar speeds over the
Gulf and Laguna overnight with seas potentially building to 6 feet
or higher at night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.