Texas, 2023

Drought in Texas, August 8 to 31, 2023

August 8 to 31, 2023 · NWS EWX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

The hot, dry summer continued this month. Nearly all of South Central Texas had less than normal rainfall.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

The hot, dry summer continued this month. Nearly all of South Central Texas had less than normal rainfall. Most of the area northeast of a line from Kerrville to Karnes City received less than 25% of normal, and for most of our counties the drought worsened. Frio and Edwards went into Severe (D2) drought. Atascosa, De Witt, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went into Extreme (D3) drought from less than D2. Fayette and Lavaca went from less than D2 to Exceptional (D4) drought. Bexar, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Bastrop, and Lee went from D2 to D4. Real and Medina went from D2 to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Burnet Comal, Hays, Llano, Travis, and Williamson went from D3 to D4. Uvalde remained in D2. Gillespie, Kendall, and Kerr remained in D4. Area reservoirs continued to drop. Medina Lake dropped 1.2 feet and was 85.9 feet below normal conservation pool level. Lake Buchanan fell 3.9 feet to 26.1 feet below normal. Lake Travis was down 3.9 feet to 49.6 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 2.1 feet to 16.9 feet below normal. The Edwards Aquifer actually rose 0.7 feet but was still 31.3 feet below normal. Most public water systems encouraged at least voluntary water restrictions and many had mandatory restrictions in effect. Some of the larger services had the following: Fredericksburg and Kerrville Stage 4, Llano and Georgetown Stage 3, San Antonio, Universal City, New Braunfels, and Austin Stage 2. At the end of the month, the 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the Nueces, Frio, Medina, Guadalupe, and upper Colorado Rivers, and below normal (10%-24%) on the San Antonio and lower Colorado Rivers. All of the counties in D2 or worse drought had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 11:16 PM CST, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 11:16 PM CST, 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1216 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...New AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The strong 500 mb high remains in place over west Texas this
afternoon. Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is keeping
low level flow from the south to southeast across South Central
Texas. This stagnant pattern will  continue through this short term
period. If there is any movement of the upper high it will be toward
the east, but there really won't be any real change to this pattern.
Hot and dry will continue. Tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly
clear and very warm. Low temperatures both nights will be from the
middle 70s to near 80. High temperatures Tuesday will above 100
nearly everywhere except for a few lucky locations in Hill Country
where they will peak out in the upper 90s. We will extend the
Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory for Tuesday. The warning
will cover the northern Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal
Plains and the advisory will be the rest of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Fire weather and heat health risks continue for the foreseeable
future. Another week of hot, dry weather is ahead as high
temperatures will range from 99-110 each day through Friday, cooling
only slightly over the weekend. Despite a relative minimum in H5
height anomalies on Wednesday, we'll see little relief in terms of
temperatures at the surface. And unfortunately, a sfc low over OK
Wednesday will help allow for stronger winds than we've seen
recently, only exacerbating the already high fire danger in the
afternoon and evening hours.

These breezier conditions are likely to continue into Thursday and
Friday, but improve slightly over the weekend. Combined with the
extreme heat, no rain, and dry fuels, the risk for wildfire
starts/spread will be very high and Red Flag Warnings are likely to
continue each day for much of the region. Same goes for heat
headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Wash, rinse, repeat. Same old, same old. Winds will remain quite
breezy through the period, especially in the afternoon and continuing
through late evening as the seabreeze works inland between 00z and
06z. SSE winds of 12-16 kts will be common early this morning and
again late tonight from 03Z onward. For today, expect some MVFR
ceilings at SAT, SSF, and AUS as a stratus deck sets up shop over the
I-35 corridor. VFR should return after 13-14Z, followed by a shift in
wind direction from SSW to SSE by early afternoon. No other
significant or sensible weather is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Wind speeds will increase a bit Tuesday while the humidity will stay
about the same. We will extend the Red Flag Warning and expand the
area to include Real, Kerr, Bandera, Uvalde, and Medina Counties.
Humidity over the Coastal Plains and south central counties will
remain a little higher and we will continue the Fire Danger
Statement in this area. No other significant changes are forecast in
the short term. We will likely continue to see widespread sustained
wind speeds in the 10-15 mph range with gusts to 20-25 mph through
mid-week. Residents across all of South-Central Texas are urged to
exercise extra care with any outdoor activities that could
inadvertently ignite a wildfire.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Record High Temperatures

                    8/8  8/9  8/10  8/11  8/12
Austin Camp Mabry   110  106  107   105   106
Austin Bergstrom    108  106  107   105   104
Del Rio             105  108  107   106   107
San Antonio         104  106  105   106   104

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             107  79 107  79 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 105  79 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    106  79 105  79 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport           105  78 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          110  81 107  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       105  78 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            105  76 106  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       105  77 106  78 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional  104  79 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport      104  78 105  79 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          107  79 106  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-
Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-
Uvalde-Williamson-Wilson.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-
Blanco-Dimmit-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Maverick-Real-
Val Verde-Zavala.

&&

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...18
Aviation...MMM
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 8:26 PM CST, 3 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
926 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-090230-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
926 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Increased fire danger will continue across South Central Texas
today. Drought cured fuels, hot temperatures, low humidity and
occasionally breezy winds in the evening may combine to produce
fires that spread rapidly and exhibit high resistance to control.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerously hot temperatures and heat index values are expected
each afternoon into early evening across South Central Texas
through the upcoming week. Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat
Advisories will be needed for at least portions of South Central
Texas through the upcoming week. There remains a risk for heat
related illnesses for those spending extended time outdoors and
not taking proper precautions.

Increased fire danger will continue across South Central Texas
through the upcoming week. Additional Red Flag Warnings are
expected this week. Winds are expected to peak in speed Tuesday
through Thursday, likely leading to more widespread critical
conditions. Drought cured fuels, hot temperatures, low humidity
and occasionally breezy winds in the afternoon and evening may
combine to produce fires that spread rapidly and exhibit high
resistance to control.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Frio

When
August 8, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Frio forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.868, -99.108 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The hot, dry summer continued this month. Nearly all of South Central Texas had less than normal rainfall. Most of the area northeast of a line from Kerrville to Karnes City received less than 25% of normal, and for most of our counties the drought worsened. Frio and Edwards went into Severe (D2) drought. Atascosa, De Witt, Gonzales, Karnes, and Wilson went into Extreme (D3) drought from less than D2. Fayette and Lavaca went from less than D2 to Exceptional (D4) drought. Bexar, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Bastrop, and Lee went from D2 to D4. Real and Medina went from D2 to D3. Bandera, Blanco, Burnet Comal, Hays, Llano, Travis, and Williamson went from D3 to D4. Uvalde remained in D2. Gillespie, Kendall, and Kerr remained in D4. Area reservoirs continued to drop. Medina Lake dropped 1.2 feet and was 85.9 feet below normal conservation pool level. Lake Buchanan fell 3.9 feet to 26.1 feet below normal. Lake Travis was down 3.9 feet to 49.6 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 2.1 feet to 16.9 feet below normal. The Edwards Aquifer actually rose 0.7 feet but was still 31.3 feet below normal. Most public water systems encouraged at least voluntary water restrictions and many had mandatory restrictions in effect. Some of the larger services had the following: Fredericksburg and Kerrville Stage 4, Llano and Georgetown Stage 3, San Antonio, Universal City, New Braunfels, and Austin Stage 2. At the end of the month, the 7-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the Nueces, Frio, Medina, Guadalupe, and upper Colorado Rivers, and below normal (10%-24%) on the San Antonio and lower Colorado Rivers. All of the counties in D2 or worse drought had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1133727.