Heat in Texas, August 6, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Made some adjustments to the heat headlines after adjusting
forecast for lower dewpoints and slightly less hot temperatures
across southern portions of the forecast area. Clouds should
continue to decrease and winds become light and more southerly
ahead of main synoptic frontal boundary, which is currently
sinking slowly south across northwest/west central Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Thunderstorms are expected to be moving eastward away
from northern and central Oklahoma around daybreak today. This will
coincide with the passage of the mid-level trough to the east and
the arrival of the modest synoptic cold front. This front is
expected to stall over the southern third of Oklahoma allowing very
hot and humid conditions there again today. An Excessive Heat
Warning will be issued for southeastern Oklahoma with a Heat
Advisory over the rest of south central and southwestern Oklahoma.
The surface MSLP ridge axis will extend into Oklahoma later today
finally bringing marginally drier air Monday. In the meantime, broad
upslope boundary layer flow from Oklahoma into New Mexico and
eastern Colorado along with a weak wave in seasonably-fast mid-level
flow is expected generate thunderstorms tonight. The mean flow would
have these track across Oklahoma early Monday, affecting mostly the
northeastern two-thirds of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Thunderstorms may form Monday afternoon in southern
Oklahoma along the synoptic stationary front given strong heating
and ample moisture. Good rain chances come later Monday and Tuesday
morning. A small, but well-defined short-wave trough will move from
northern Colorado and then across northern Oklahoma late Monday and
Tuesday morning. Aided by increasing low-layer moisture moving north
of the front that passed on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move across Oklahoma from the northwest late Monday and
early Tuesday. Another short-wave trough in the prevailing
northwesterly flow is expected Wednesday with moderately gusty south
winds ahead of a front. This front may keep northern Oklahoma
temperatures closer to normal while the heat returns to southern
areas for the second half of the week. Modest rain chances exist
mainly over the eastern half of Oklahoma from Thursday through
Saturday as the upper high builds eastward again pushing effects of
the westerlies farther north and east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Will include PROB30 SHRA/TSRA for late tonight and tomorrow
morning across northern and central Oklahoma terminals as post
frontal showers and storms will be possible. Some MVFR cigs
possible late tonight through the morning at these terminals. The
slow moving cold front will switch winds to northerly across
terminals as the day progresses, with some moderate and gusty
north- northeast winds expected across southwest Oklahoma and KSPS
terminal tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  68  88  68 /  40  40  30  50
Hobart OK         95  68  93  66 /  20  30  20  50
Wichita Falls TX 107  75  99  73 /  20  10  10  50
Gage OK           86  63  87  63 /  10  40  10  50
Ponca City OK     88  65  85  66 /  50  30  20  30
Durant OK        102  76  94  72 /  30  10  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ045-050.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ051-
     052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
734 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071245-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
734 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Heat...
Heat index values between 105 and 113 are expected Sunday afternoon
across northern Texas and far southern Oklahoma.

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
morning, mainly across the eastern half of Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Heat...
Dangerous heat returns to much of the region from Tuesday into
next weekend.

.Thunderstorms...There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday
and Tuesday and again late in the week.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday in
southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas.

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