A weak shortwave trough moving through the Ohio Valley coincided with peak diurnal heating, ample atmospheric moisture, minor shear, and moderate downdraft potential. Scattered thunderstorms developed across Northwest Georgia and the Atlanta Metro, causing wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
A weak shortwave trough moving through the Ohio Valley coincided with peak diurnal heating, ample atmospheric moisture, minor shear, and moderate downdraft potential. Scattered thunderstorms developed across Northwest Georgia and the Atlanta Metro, causing wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 12:50 AM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 150 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Highlights: - Scattered shower/thunderstorm activity possible through the remainder of the afternoon and evening (mainly sub severe). - Model uncertainty, but potential for increased showers over N GA tomorrow morning. - Showers and thunderstorms expected early tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Should a line stay together, damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Looking at a bit of a complicated forecast for the remainder of the weekend. We continue to sit in NW flow with the ridging to our west and the deep trough to our east with plenty of moisture through the upper levels. Our current situation has a cu field over much of the area and temperatures warming into the 90s which has caused a couple of storms to fire near Macon. We could see an increase in scattered shower/thunderstorms activity through the remainder of the afternoon and evening but not expecting anything severe at this time. Looking at the overnight period into tomorrow morning is where things get a tad complicated. Models throughout the morning have been indicating multiple waves of showers/thunderstorms moving through N GA starting around as early as 2 am and moving through the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Based off of guidance, the most likely scenarios are shower activity in the morning over N GA that could expand to the metro into the 10 am timeframe. Following this a secondary wave is more likely in the afternoon and early evening time frame. At the moment this looks to be in the form of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms pushing from the N through the metro before tapering off with scattered activity across central GA. The main threats with these storms would be damaging wind gusts should the line hold together. Overall temps through the weekend are expected to increase into the low to mid 90s which will have our area approach heat advisory criteria in central GA but due to the expected shower activity, not expecting this to happen and apparent Ts to stay below heat advisory criteria. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 Key Messages: - A Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms expected for North Georgia as a front pushes into the region with increased moisture, heat and shear aloft. - Heat Index Values of 105-110 are expected on Monday south of the I-85 and I-20 corridors. - Additional shortwave trough expected Wed/Thurs will increase storm chances across North Georgia. Discussion: Not much change to the long term forecast, with increasing certainty that a late season, shortwave trough on Monday will pull ample heat and moisture northward from the Gulf resulting in dangerous Heat condition across Central Georgia which will likely prompt a Heat Advisory for at least southern portions of the forecast area, followed by a "cold" front, pushing into the region Monday afternoon/night with a strong to severe line of accompanied thunderstorms. See below for a detailed synoptic analysis on the storm environment. Otherwise, only change is with storm chances Wednesday into Thursday as confidence increases of a weak shortwave trough that have increase chances for storms across North Georgia within a very moist environment. But, long range models are showing a potential lift northward of the Jet Stream to the north next week as high pressure from the Bermuda High to the east and High Amplitude Continental Ridge from the west fills in across the region. This could finally shut down most severe T'Storm activity for the southeastern CONUS, but a lot of uncertainty still exist for the extended forecast. Thiem Previous Long Term Discussion Below by Fcster #96 Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 As we enter the long term period and kick off the work week on Monday, the Southeast is (briefly) situated under quasi-zonal flow at the mid-levels. Our primary feature of interest will be a cold front trailing a low pressure system making its way eastward across the Great Lakes, forecast to move through north and central Georgia Monday afternoon overnight into Tuesday. Coincident with enhanced lift along the boundary will be a jet streak/low-level jet with enough oomph to support as much as 30-40kts of effective shear. Highs are expected to top out in the low-to-mid 90s on Monday, enough to exceed convective temperatures and promote development of seasonable values of CAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. The combined effects of all of the above variables certainly support at least an outside chance of another quasi-organized line of storms trekking through the CWA, not unlike what we've seen effectively biweekly over the past month or two. Signals for the aforementioned feature are being resolved in global model guidance, but the intensity and timing are unlikely to be nailed down until we're in range of HiRes guidance. For now, isolated severe potential seems possible, primarily with respect to gusty to damaging winds aided by precip- loaded downdrafts (PWATs forecast to be in the 1.75-2.25" range, at or above the 90th percentile climatologically). Behind the frontal passage, minimal (but nontrivial) sensible effects are expected: highs 2-5 degrees "cooler" -- in the mid-80s to near 90 -- and PWATs dropping into the 1.25-1.5" range. PoPs will briefly drop below 50% through Thursday before atmospheric moisture properly rebounds, but will fail to be effaced completely. As we approach next weekend, the mid-level ridge that has plagued the Desert Southwest for the better portion of the summer becomes higher amplitude once again, setting the stage for yet another round of northwesterly flow and the potential for higher-impact/better- organized convection supported by ridge riders. Progged afternoon thunderstorm activity will help to tamp down temperatures even as the airmass moderates, to right around a degree or two of normal (in the upper-80s to low-90s). 96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023 Thunderstorms will be the primary aviation concern through 12Z Monday. Storms should move into northern Georgia (north of KATL) after 11Z Sunday, then they will gradually increase in coverage and spread into central Georgia through 04Z Monday. Impacts, perhaps for several periods, are expected at all the TAF sites. Light and variable winds are expected through 15Z, with primarily westerly winds between 15Z Sunday and 00Z Monday. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Overall forecast confidence is moderate. Confidence in the ceiling forecast is high. Confidence in the visibility, thunderstorm and wind forecasts is moderate. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 71 94 71 89 / 50 40 30 30 Atlanta 73 96 73 91 / 40 40 30 40 Blairsville 67 88 65 83 / 50 70 40 30 Cartersville 72 95 70 89 / 40 50 30 40 Columbus 74 98 76 94 / 50 40 20 50 Gainesville 72 93 72 89 / 50 50 30 30 Macon 73 96 75 93 / 50 40 20 50 Rome 72 94 71 90 / 40 50 30 40 Peachtree City 71 96 71 91 / 40 30 30 40 Vidalia 75 95 77 94 / 50 40 20 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Thiem AVIATION...Albright
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1030 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-070230- Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa- Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta- Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel- Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene- Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson- Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon- Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray- Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach- Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton- Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs- Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren- Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes- Wilkinson- 1030 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia. .DAY ONE...Tonight... No hazardous weather is expected at this time. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across far north Georgia overnight, which may produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday... Scattered thunderstorms will develop in Georgia Sunday afternoon and evening. A few of these storm may produce damaging winds. Severe weather is most likely along and north of Interstate 20 between 2 PM and 10 PM. Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next Friday. The highest storm chances will occur during the afternoon and evening hours each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 28 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:34 UTC.
49 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree down at Newnan Rd and 85 Connector .
Tree down blocking both lanes of roadway in the 700 block of Cannon Farm Rd.
Couple of trees down near social circle and Lipscomb Rd.
Tree down at Snows Mill Rd and Turkey Mt Trail.
Tree down at hwy 78 and Bradley Gin Rd .
A power line was reported down on Happy Valley Circle near Bantry Park Drive.
Tree down across anneewakee rd near Oak Place.
Tree reported down near the intersection of Old Briar Trail and N Shelby Lane.
Report of tree down on the 2100 block of Alcovy Rd.
A tree fell onto a vehicle on I-285 between Langford Pkwy and Camp Creek Pkwy.
Power lines down at 1600 block of North Hwy 92.
A tree was reported down on Old Corinth Rd near Earl North Rd.
A tree was reported down near the intersection of E Wood St and E Front St.
A tree was reported down in the vicinity of hwy 29 and The Crescent.
A tree was reported down in the 1100 block of Bexley Road.
A tree was reported down on a home on Frances St.
Power lines down at Goza Rd near Bernhard Rd.
A tree was downed onto a home on Cedartown Rd in Cave Spring.
A tree was downed on a home on Fannin Street.
Power lines down at Padgett Rd near Kimberly Ct.
A tree was downed onto a home on Avenue D.
Large tree downed across hwy 20 near Airline Rd powerlines downed as well.
Tree down at 2000 block of Locust Grove Rd .
A tree was downed onto a power line on Strickland Pasture Rd and Wilson Rd.
A tree was downed onto a house in the 600 block of Pleasant Hill Rd.
Report of tree down on Oak Drive.
Tree down at N Burnt Hickory and Gresham Rd.
A tree was reported down on Slater Mill Road.
Report of tree down on Old Briar Trail.
A tree was downed near the intersection of Pritchards Mill Trail and Mill Trace.
Report of tree downed along Nelms Rd.
Several trees downed and a few powerlines downed north of Franklin, GA. Along Eley Rd, Cassell Rd., and 5 Knotch Rd.
Tree down along Bevis Rd near Riverview Rd.
A tree fell across the roadway in the 1100 block of simms rd.
A tree was downed on James Grove Church Rd .
A tree was downed on Spring St in Wrightsville.
Power line down at canoochee rd and canoochee bypass.
Tree down in 100 block of Rollingwood Circle.
Report of tree down in 20 block of Ross St.
A tree was downed on Mt View Club House Rd.
Tree down at Old Garfield Rd and Old Boatright Rd.
Tree down at Bobwhite Rd and Lambs Bridge Rd.
A tree and power line were downed on Liberty Church Rd near Zion Church Rd.
A tree was downed on power lines on Loftis Rd near near Francis White Rd.
Tree down in the 7000 block of Lamplighter Ln.
A tree was reported down on Brickleberry Way at hwy 92.
A tree was reported down in the 7000 block of South Sweewater Rd.
Tree down on home on Midway Rd and W Linda Dr.
Tree down on 5000 and 6000 block of hwy 5.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1125990, 1126003, 1126009, 1126012, 1126016, 1125891, 1125897, 1125901, 1125961, 1125955, 1125932, 1125888, 1125889, 1125893, 1125894, 1125983, 1125937, 1125943, 1125945, 1125939, 1125949, 1125975, 1125994, 1125887, 1125985, 1125904, 1125921, 1125908, 1125911, 1125913, 1125970, 1125971, 1125969, 1125996, 1125978, 1125979, 1125930, 1125951, 1125940, 1125965, and more.