Wildfire in Texas, August 20 to 23, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
221 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Upper-level ridging is currently sliding to the north, where it
should remain into the long-term. What that means for us in the
short-term is a "slight cool down" in the afternoon high
temperature department. Widespread 105+ degree temperatures today
will damper into the low triple-digits for highs tomorrow, as
that high-pressure takes the warmest air with it north. However,
that will have little to no effect on afternoon heat index values.
As such, I have extended the existing Excessive Heat warning
through tomorrow night. This Excessive Heat warning will likely
remain in place for most of the week, so just prepare yourselves
for that. Little to no rainfall is expected over the short-term as
well, as the high-pressure keeps the tropical moisture to our
south. There is a chance that a thunderstorm sneaks into our far
southern zones on Monday afternoon, but I did not put much stock
in that with my forecast.

Given increasing fire weather concerns from our partners and
neighboring offices, the long-term forecaster has gone ahead and
issued a Red Flag Warning for Monday. This Red Flag warning may be
extended into subsequent days, and more detail regarding this Red
Flag warning can be found in the "Fire Weather" section of this
AFD.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

The story in the long term is the continued oppressive heat through
the upcoming work week and perhaps, some changes in the forecast by
next weekend.

By Tuesday, the center of the stacked, upper level ridge will
continue to be displaced well to our north, or across the Upper Mid
West, into the Southern and Central Plains, and as far north as the
Dakotas. This 600dam, 500mb ridge is massive and encompasses all but
New England and the Pacific Northeast and the Western Seaboard. The
center of this massive feature will begin to shift south once again
into the Ozarks of Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas on
Wednesday and across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and
SW AR by Thursday. Thus, persistence would tend to suggest that the
closer the center of the ridge axis moves to our region, the hotter
we should get, therefore Thursday should be our hottest day this
week with yet another opportunity to see all-time record maximum
temperatures for much of our region.

By Friday, the ridge axis is forecast to begin retrograding once
again back to the west, into the foothills of the Southern Rockies
and if this forecast holds true, our region should be far enough
east of the ridge axis to introduce slight chance pops across our
southeast 2/3rd Friday and areawide Saturday. The GFS and to some
degree, the ECMWF remain consistent with an upper level disturbance
rounding the eastern flank of the ridge axis Friday Night into
Saturday, bringing with it a cold front that could, at least
temporarily, try to drag some slightly milder temperatures into our
region. All this will need to be watched very closely as the medium
range progs typically have a poor history of upper level ridge
placement and relocations of this feature beyond 3-5 days or so but
any sliver of hope to break this pattern we are currently under
bears watching. Until then, triple digit heat, and heat headlines
will continue for much of our region.

/13/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

After coordination with surrounding WFOs as well as our Fire Weather
partners and coordinators, we have issued a Red Flag Warning for
portions of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana mainly near the I-
20 Corridor and points south. The valid time for the Red Flag
Warning will be from 7am thru 8pm Monday. While the meteorological
criteria for meeting this Red Flag Warning on Monday is not what
we'd call "textbook", the fact remains that fuel moisture is
virtually non-existent across much of this region, especially across
the southern half of NE TX and far Western LA. Look for minimum RH
values on Monday to bottom out near 20 to 25 percent with sufficient
afternoon mixing with southeast to east 20ft winds near 10 to 15 mph
with occasional higher gusts. Rapid ignition and spread of wildfires
is possible given these conditions and critically dry fuels with
triple digit ambient temperatures once again forecast for Monday.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 103  81 104 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  77 103  79 104 /   0  10   0  10
DEQ  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  76 101  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  74  97  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  80 106  80 106 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  78 104  79 105 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  78 106  78 106 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>003-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ136>138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211000-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An elevated fire danger threat will persist today across much of the
region due to low relative humidity and critically to extremely dry
conditions. Very hot temperatures well into the triple digits will
also combine with the humidity to maintain Excessive Heat Warnings
across the entire region as heat indices exceed 110 degrees during
peak heating hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Excessive heat hazards are expected to continue through next week as
triple-digit temperatures show no signs of relenting. Increasingly
dry conditions will maintain a risk of wildfires across the region,
with extended periods of increased fire weather messaging likely as
well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

19