Flood and Hail in Texas, August 12 to 13, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
148 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Subtropical moisture will continue to be brought northward over the
Panhandles through Sunday night between high pressure to our east
and low pressure to our west.  This moisture will continue to
interact with several upper level disturbances moving through the
flow and several boundaries on the surface to help bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region through Sunday night.

An outflow boundary from southern Union County, NM to the northern
Low Rolling Plains will help focus showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon.  More thunderstorms are expected to move this way from
southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico.  Any of these storms
may become severe, however, the best wind shear and instability will
be found across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas
Panhandle.  These storms will also be efficient rain producers, so
will have to watch for any flooding.

On Sunday, an upper level disturbance on the bottom side of an upper
level low moving through the northern plains will help to form more
showers and thunderstorms across our area.  Upper level diffluence
combined with instability and moisture will help to maintain the
showers and storms. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue into Sunday night aided by a southward moving cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

A nice cool start to the work week will quickly change back to the
Summer heat by mid week. Outside of some lingering showers/storms
on Monday morning, mostly dry conditions are expected through the
end of the work week.

A surface cold front should be well south of the Panhandles by
sunrise on Monday morning. In its wake, cloud cover should remain
over portions of the area along with some lingering showers/storms
for at least a few hours behind the front. H850 temperatures may
remain in the mid teens C throughout the day which would lead to
very comfortable temperatures in the 70s and perhaps low 80s for
highs on Monday. The 12/13z NBM probabilities for less than 80
degree highs continue to slowly increase for the entire area. In
general, the entire area has at least a 60 percent chance outside
of the far southeastern TX Panhandle which has around a 40 percent
chance of remaining below 80 degrees. Upper level ridging becomes
elongated towards the northwestern CONUS Tuesday and beyond which
leads to high pressure over the Southern High Plains. Steadily
increasing temperatures are expected Tuesday and beyond along with
mostly dry conditions. High temperatures should return to the 90s
and triple digits by Wednesday afternoon and will likely remain
that way through the rest of the work week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Thunderstorms will be possible at all TAF sites this afternoon or
evening. Some of the storms may become severe with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Thunderstorms should move east of
the TAF sites late this evening. However, more showers along with
isolated thunderstorms may linger through sunrise Sunday morning,
but confidence is not high enough to mention any TSRA at any given
TAF site after midnight. Winds will remain generally around 10
knots or less outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  96  63  77 /  50  30  90  30
Beaver OK                  67  91  61  79 /  70  40  60   0
Boise City OK              62  90  58  78 /  70  40  60  10
Borger TX                  69  99  63  82 /  50  50  90  30
Boys Ranch TX              67  97  62  78 /  60  40  90  30
Canyon TX                  68  97  63  76 /  50  30  80  40
Clarendon TX               71  99  66  78 /  40  30  80  30
Dalhart TX                 62  94  58  76 /  50  40  80  20
Guymon OK                  64  91  60  79 /  70  30  60  10
Hereford TX                68  98  63  78 /  50  30  80  40
Lipscomb TX                68  96  61  81 /  50  40  70  10
Pampa TX                   68  95  62  77 /  50  40  90  30
Shamrock TX                70  99  65  81 /  30  30  70  30
Wellington TX              72 103  67  83 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
155 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-131000-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
155 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue through tonight across the combined
Panhandles. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary hazards. Confidence in
severe storms is higher across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the
northern Texas Panhandle. Moreover, locally heavy rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon
through the overnight hours as a front drops into the region.
Strong to severe storms will once again be a threat with damaging
winds, and large hail being the main hazards. Locally heavy rain
could lead to some flash flooding concerns as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1256 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

OKZ003-121830-
Beaver OK-
1256 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Beaver
County through 130 PM CDT...

At 1256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Knowles, or 16 miles southwest of Englewood, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Knowles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 10000 3678 10018 3678 10049 3700 10045
      3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 228DEG 35KT 3690 10023

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Muscha

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
348 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

TXZ007-012-122115-
Potter TX-Moore TX-
348 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Potter
and south central Moore Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Valley De Oro, or 15 miles north of Amarillo, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Masterson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 10201 3565 10202 3561 10162 3555 10162
      3533 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 199DEG 21KT 3542 10185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Muscha