Wildfire in Texas, April 4 to 8, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
411 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Have made some adjustments to the forecast, mainly to winds
through tomorrow morning. Surface cold front is currently stalled
in far southwest Kansas and has remained stationary for a few
hours. The latest hi-res guidance seems to be handling the
position of this front better, so have blended in some of the hi-
res models into the current forecast to bring the front into the
Panhandles quicker. We are continuing to monitor blowing dust in
the southwestern TX Panhandle that is leading to some isolated
areas of very poor visibility down to a quarter mile or less at
times. May need to upgrade the Blowing Dust Advisory to a Blowing
Dust Warning in the southwest should this trend continue.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

As of this morning there is a mid to upper level low pressure
system spinning over the WY/UT/CO tri-state area. This system is
progged to bring strong jet dynamics through the Central and
Southern Great Plains today. This system is also bringing a
Pacific front which will be bringing strong westerly winds and
reinforcing some already dry air in place. With the Pacific front
coming in, daytime highs are expected to stay in the 60s to the
west and 70s to the eastern FA, with maybe some lower 80s in the
southeastern TX Panhandle. Td's are progged to fall to near zero
degrees F.

For today a LLTR is progged to set up over portions of SW TX up
through western OK and south central KS. H85 temperatures will be
around 25 degrees C over SW TX and 22 degrees C up over western
OK. For the FA, H85 temperatures are progged to be around 11
degrees C in the west to 20 degrees C in the east. The leading
edge of an H7 trough will have some wind speeds upwards of 60 to
70 kts coming into the combined Panhandles by noon. This evening
into the overnight hours, H7 winds are progged to subside with the
jet moving east. However, the southeastern TX Panhandle may be
under the left entrance region of the jet over night.

Around midnight tonight an Arctic front will be pushing into the
OK Panhandle with the front expected to be through Amarillo by 4
AM. The front will bring Td's back up into the teens and north
winds around 15 to 20 mph. Temperatures are looking to fall into
the lower 20s to the northwest tonight with mid 30s in the far
southeastern TX Panhandle. Winds are expected to subside and
possibly become light a variable at times tomorrow afternoon. The
CAA behind the Arctic front is expected to keep tomorrow's
afternoon highs in the 50s with Wellington possibly reaching
60/61. Tomorrow night upsloping SE winds become light near
sunrise Thu morning, which will help temperatures to once again
fall to below freezing for much of the area Thu morning.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

The long term is looking quite dry with a gradual warming through
the extended. Afternoon temperatures are looking to get back into
the lower 60s on Thu as the rest of the upper level trough from
today completely exits the Great Plains and the FA can return to
more zonal flow aloft. Fri is looking to have a weak upper level
shortwave pass over before a robust upper level ridge builds back
over the central CONUS through early next weak. This ridge is
expected to bring afternoon highs back into the upper 70s Sat with
lower 80s expected for portions of the FA Sun and Mon. Models do
hint at some subtle shortwaves or perturbations aloft Sun night
into Mon and with the possibility of a dryline of sorts bringing
some Tds in the 50s to the eastern third of the combined
Panhandles. The newest run of the NBM has dropped off the slight
chance PoPs, or 15-20, down to 10 in the eastern third of the
combined Panhandles. Will have to keep an eye on Mon as isolated
pop up thunderstorms may still be possible with daytime heating.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Despite being moisture free, with no low clouds or fog,
conditions will be less than favorable for the combined OK/TX
Panhandles through about 00Z Wed. This is due to an upper level
jet impacting much of the Southern Great Plains today bringing
strong gusty winds. Ongoing drought conditions along with the
high winds will lead to blowing dust and visibility issues from
the blowing dust. The dust may also cause ASOS/AWOS to read a bkn
CIG of 3k feet or less at times. Winds are expected to gradually
calm after 00Z Wed but will remain on the breezy to windy side. A
cold front will bring northerly winds around 15 to 20 kts after
06Z for KGUY and KDHT, with KAMA being closer to 10Z by the winds
shift to the north.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue until about midnight
across the Panhandles.  Strong winds, combined with low relative
humidity below 10 percent and dry grasses will set the stage for the
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                29  57  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  27  55  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              21  50  24  60 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  30  58  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              28  57  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  29  58  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               33  58  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 22  53  23  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  24  53  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                29  60  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                28  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   29  56  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                34  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              36  60  31  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Blowing Dust Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>004.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005>020-
     317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

     Blowing Dust Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
148 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-050700-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
148 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through midnight
for the Panhandles due to strong winds and low relative humidity
values. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles through midnight.

Southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts of 65 to 70 mph are
expected today. A High Wind Warning is in effect for all of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles through 9 PM CDT.

The high winds will cause blowing dust leading to poor visibility
and travel conditions at times. Driver should take extra
precaution and anticipate sudden drops in visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No widespread hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions through midnight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NNE AMARILLO          35.32N 101.76W
04/04/2023  M58 MPH          POTTER             TX   MESONET

            FIRST NON-THUNDERSTORM GUST OF 58 MPH OR
            GREATER AT THIS LOCATION. EVENT IS ONGOING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 10 E MIAMI              35.69N 100.46W
04/04/2023  M58 MPH          HEMPHILL           TX   MESONET

            FIRST NON-THUNDERSTORM GUST OF 58 MPH OR
            GREATER AT THIS LOCATION. EVENT IS ONGOING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
423 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SPEARMAN                36.20N 101.19W
04/04/2023  M66 MPH          HANSFORD           TX   AWOS

            FIRST NON-THUNDERSTORM GUST OF 58 MPH OR
            GREATER AT THIS LOCATION. EVENT IS ONGOING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NNW AMARILLO         35.40N 101.92W
04/04/2023  M58 MPH          POTTER             TX   MESONET

            FIRST NON-THUNDERSTORM GUST OF 58 MPH OR
            GREATER AT THIS LOCATION. EVENT IS ONGOING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
451 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W CANYON              34.98N 101.94W
04/04/2023  M58 MPH          RANDALL            TX   MESONET

            FIRST NON-THUNDERSTORM GUST OF 58 MPH OR
            GREATER AT THIS LOCATION. EVENT IS ONGOING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E BORGER              35.66N 101.28W
04/04/2023  M60 MPH          HUTCHINSON         TX   MESONET

            PRELIMINARY PEAK GUST OF 60 MPH AT THIS
            LOCATION. EVENT IS ONGOING.

&&

AH