A warm front lifted northward off the Gulf Coast, causing rapid moisture transport to the Mid-South. In addition, an upper-level trough and associated cold front approached the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A warm front lifted northward off the Gulf Coast, causing rapid moisture transport to the Mid-South. In addition, an upper-level trough and associated cold front approached the area. This led to showers in the afternoon and then severe thunderstorms that continued through the overnight hours. Damaging wind, hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding were the result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 11:51 PM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1151 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 Mild temperatures and dry conditions are the main story for today. Several locations have climbed into the low to mid 70s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Warm and increasingly more humid conditions will funnel into the Mid-South tomorrow morning as a secondary warm front lifts across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will begin tomorrow afternoon with the first round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms arriving early tomorrow evening. Another round of more widespread convection will roll into the Mid-South around midnight and continue through the overnight hours into Tuesday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany this line of activity. A minor flooding threat is also possible as rainfall totals will approach 2 to 3 inches for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Dry and cool conditions will build in behind the exiting system with a return to near normal temperatures through the remainder of the workweek. AC3 && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 A great start to 2023 as temperatures are impressively mild this afternoon. Several locations are already in the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures are expected to remain mild overnight as WAA continues in advance of a deepening trough over the Rockies. Expect lows to fall only into the low 60s. As WAA strengthens overnight, models are hinting at patchy fog and light drizzle developing overnight and through late tomorrow morning. A leading shortwave embedded in the main trough will lift northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow afternoon. This will kick off the first round of showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon. A marginal severe threat will exist from late afternoon through early evening as a batch of thunderstorms lift northeast along the Mississippi River. A low CAPE and modestly sheared environment could support a few instances of small hail and gusty winds with this activity. By late afternoon the main shortwave will be located over the Central Plains and begin to take on a negative tilt. Decent height falls will occur and steepen lapse rates over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Simultaneously, the LLJ is expected to strengthen and support a more organized severe threat across the Mid-South. A likely broken QLCS will arrive in eastern Arkansas before midnight and sweep across west Tennessee and north Mississippi overnight. Even though shear will increase substantially, MLCAPE will remain at or below 500 J/kg. This will limit the overall threat, but a few instances of damaging wind gusts and embedded circulations look possible given the kinematics in place. The main threat appears to be damaging winds with a secondary threat of short-lived tornadoes and isolated flash flooding. This threat will quickly push through the region by daybreak, exiting northeast Mississippi by mid morning. The current SPC outlooks handle this system well, accounting for both timing and expected intensity of this event. Will continue to advertise the two rounds of storms on messaging platforms and highlight the main threat as damaging wind gusts. The cold front will swing through the region by Tuesday evening. This will knock temperatures back down to near normal for the remainder of the week. Expect dry conditions and cool temperatures to persist each day. Highs will mainly be in the 40s and 50s with lows near freezing each night. The next system looks to arrive next weekend as another cold front enters the region. Thunderstorm chances look low with this system for now. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 The trend for the next few hours will be lowering CIGs and increasing precip chances. VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate from west to east overnight to MVFR and finally IFR by morning through the afternoon. CIGs may even get down to LIFR intermittently tomorrow morning, but confidence wasn't quite high enough to include it in the TAFs. We should see some ceiling improvement to MVFR again late tomorrow night. Pre-frontal drizzle should start making its way into the region before any heavier showers; mentioned -DZ at all sites from early morning through the afternoon. -SHRA should start up late afternoon with increasing thunderstorm potential later on in the evening. The first wave of stronger convection with TSRA should reach MEM by about 00Z tomorrow, but spatial coverage is still inconsistent among CAMs. The second line will most likely not materialize until after midnight, thus it is only included in the extended MEM TAF. Winds will stay generally southerly around 6-8kt through the morning, picking up to 10-12kt tomorrow afternoon. As the front gets closer tomorrow, southerly winds and gust potential will increase. We could see gusts up to 25-30kt tomorrow evening. Southerly LLWS has been added to all sites after 00Z tomorrow around 45-50kt. Reduced visibilities (MVFR to IFR) due to fog and/or showers/thunderstorms will be possible on and off throughout the day tomorrow, especially at JBR. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...CAD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 852 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-030500- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 852 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. In addition, 2-3 inches of rain could result in localized flooding. Strong south wind not associated with thunderstorms could also result in downed trees and powerlines late tomorrow into tomorrow night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 26 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:31 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 3 flash flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A measured thunderstorm wind gust at 60 mph occurred one mile west of Midtown.
Straight-line winds damaged a metal carport and barn.
A tornado touched down on Shaw Chapel Road four miles south-southwest of Brownsville, TN. Numerous trees sustained damage with broken limbs and a couple of trees were uprooted. The tornado then tracked to the northeast over an open field and began to dissipate as it crossed over Windrow Road. A single-family residence at this location sustained minor shingle damage. No additional damage was noted beyond this point. Peak winds were estimated at 80 mph.
Trees were knocked down on Highway 69 South near Poplar Grove Road.
The I-55 Exit at Mclemore Avenue was flooded. Several cars are partially submerged.
Highway 54 North and Ross Road were flooded.
Shaw Chapel road was flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Tennessee, 2023Warnings in Tennessee, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1077516, 1077526, 1078325, 1077554, 1077518, 1080731, 1080732.