Scattered thunderstorms developed along a stationary front during peak heating during the afternoon across portions of the Prairie Coteau and James River Valley. A brief landspout tornado was reported in the Clark area between roughly 2:30 pm and 2:45 pm CDT.
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The episode as NWS ABR wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed along a stationary front during peak heating during the afternoon across portions of the Prairie Coteau and James River Valley. A brief landspout tornado was reported in the Clark area between roughly 2:30 pm and 2:45 pm CDT.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 7, 11:28 AM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1023 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Still expecting isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the eastern CWA. Anticipating around 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE to develop across the east, with some moisture pooling along the surface frontal boundary. But again today, not much shear over the region at all. Made a few adjustments to sky cover across the east where afternoon cumulus is expected to develop. Otherwise, highs look to range from the mid/upper 80s east, to the lower 90s from the James valley westward. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 The main forecast challenge in the short term period revolves around precipitation chances. Upper level ridging will remain over the central part of the country through the period, with just some weak energy sliding across the eastern part of the CWA both today and Thursday. At the surface, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will settle in over the eastern part of the CWA, and will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Seeing a few showers tracking southward over western Minnesota this morning, and they may affect the far eastern CWA. Expect additional development this afternoon along and near the front in an area of strong instability (MUCAPE values of 2000-3500 J/kg). Shear will not be real strong, generally around 15-20 knots, but a few of the storms could produce hail and strong wind gusts and the eastern half of the CWA is in a marginal risk issued by SPC. Precipitation chances will end with the loss of daytime heating tonight. The front will move very little on Thursday, so will again become the focus for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Instability will be a little less (MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg), but shear will be a bit stronger (20-35 knots). Therefore, expect thunderstorms to develop once again Thursday afternoon, and a few of them may produce hail or gusty winds, and SPC once again has the eastern half of the CWA in a marginal risk. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will again be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms for the start of the long term with a nice cooldown expected for the weekend. Ensembles plus deterministic models agree fairly well at 500mb on the blocking pattern consisting of the ridge over the Plains and Rockies along with a mid level high at 00Z Friday, leaving the CWA with weak northerly flow. With the low pressure system moving across Canada, we will see the formation of a north to south oriented shortwave position itself over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Little bit of a difference on how far west this shortwave goes, with EC pulling it a little more west than GFS. At the same time, the ridge will continue to be overhead across the western Northern Plains and Rockies pushing west. As we head into Sunday, the shortwave remains fairly stationary with the low (that was moving east across Canada) now drifting southwestward and over the ~Great Lakes by 00Z Monday. At the same time, a mid level high will be forming over Alberta and moving southeast over the Northern Plains. Heading into early next week, this low over the Great Lakes will slowly push northeast. Models disagree on exact timing of this. Otherwise, the trough over the western CONUS will be pushing east (and pushing the ridge easterly as well) Tuesday though the midweek leaving more a split flow pattern as a ridge will be across Canada. At the surface, a stationary front will be draped north to south over SD with NBM suggesting 20-42% pops across the CWA, with the highest pops over northern SD early Friday. This front will push southeast as a low pressure and associated cold front moves through from the north, through the morning on Friday. Models indicate more of a widespread chance of pops with NBM indicating up to 56% pops through 00Z Saturday. Pops will decrease northeast to southwest through the day on Saturday as a high pressure system moves in from the north bringing LL stable air and CAA. Of note, another shortwave pulse will move north to south on Saturday but the drier air at the surface may inhibit any of this mid level moisture, noted in a few Bufkit soundings. However, we cannot rule out maybe a few sprinkles, so pops may need to be added in. Dry weather expected for Sunday/Monday as the high is overhead before chance of pops return with the next system, mentioned above, Tuesday afternoon. SBCape per NBM ranges from 1000-2000J/kg around 00Z Friday with the highest amount over northeast SD. GFS agrees pretty well with NBM on SB CAPE with GFS indicated around the same values for MuCape. Bulk shear continues to lack, leading to chances of isolated peak heating convection we have been dealing with, with a few of these storms that could produce small hail and gusty winds. For Friday, the front looks to push through during the early morning, so severe threat remains low at this time. Most likely just enough lift from the front and shortwave to produce some general thunder. Of note, GFS shows around 30kts bulk shear, mainly over the eastern part of the state Friday evening (along with 1000-2000 CAPE). With NBM still showing chances of pops in this area (15-25%) could be enough to support some isolated severe storms. This is just something to watch for. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Expecting another round of -TSRA/TSRA and -SHRA/SHRA across the region this afternoon, mainly near KABR/KATY. As has been the case, will go with VC mention until these smaller cells start appearing on radar and can then TEMPO something if confidence grows on activity affecting a TAF site. MVFR VSBY is possible under any heavier downpours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...TMT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 512 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-081015- Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts- Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant- Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo- 512 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 /412 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening east of the Missouri River. A few of the storms may produce hail or strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Additional chances for afternoon and evening storms continue through the early part of the weekend. A few of the storms may produce hail or strong winds gusts on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Parkin
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:29 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A landspout tornado was observed north of the Clark County airport to the northeast of Clark.
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