Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, August 7, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
509 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Weak shortwave energy is helping to produce some showers and
isolated, sub-severe storms across our CWA, as another weak
shortwave follows, and a stronger wave moves ashore over the Pac
NW. Winds are light and variable at the surface. Under mostly
cloudy skies, temperatures are only in the 60s and lower 70s (50s
in the BH).

As the second shortwave pushes into our region tonight, a few
more thunderstorms are expected develop. However, with limited
heating today, CAPE will be low. Better CAPE/shear will be to our
south, although a stray strong storm could skirt our CWA. Light
winds and plentiful moisture could result in some patchy fog
across southwestern SD late tonight/early Tues morning.

The stronger shortwave will cross the Rockies Tuesday morning.
Some WAA will allow MLCAPE to rise near 1000 J/kg, and 0-6 km
shear will be around 30 kts close to the NE border. As the low
slides just southwest of our CWA, a couple strong to severe storms
will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening , especially
across parts of northeastern WY and southwestern SD. Highs Tuesday
will be mainly in the 70s.

Transient ridging will allow for a warm and dry Wednesday, with
highs in the upper 70s to 80s. The next shortwave trough will
skirt the northern CONUS. Most of its energy will stay to our
north, but storms may move through northwestern SD. Buoyancy and
shear will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms.

Upper flow will become northwesterly, with a few embedded
shortwaves, through the weekend. Some isolated storms will be
possible with the weak shortwaves, but mainly dry weather can be
expected Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below seasonal averages, in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 504 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Isolated/scattered showers/TS will slowly subside this evening as
they move into south-central SD and dissipate late. Additional
active TSRA will develop Tuesday afternoon, especially near the
SD/NE border. Outside of storms, VFR conditions expected except
for local MVFR VSBYS due to BR near the SD/NE overnight. In/near
storms, brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Helgeson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
245 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-081300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
245 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 /345 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely this morning and this
afternoon. While a few storms may be strong with hail and gusty
winds, no severe weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms every day next
week. A few storms may be strong with hail and gusty winds, there
could be severe weather on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 07 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     Rain             2 SSW Custer            43.74N 103.62W
08/07/2023  M0.64 inch       Custer             SD   Trained Spotter

            Rain in 25 minutes

&&

MLS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
341 PM MDT Mon Aug 07 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Rain             14 NNW Dwtn Gillette    44.47N 105.60W
08/07/2023  M0.79 inch       Campbell           WY   CoCoRaHS

            24-hour rainfall.

&&

SE