Puerto Rico, 2023Drought in Puerto Rico, June 20 to 30, 2023
June 20 to 30, 2023 · NWS SJU · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
The lacks of wetting rains caused streamflow to run below to much below normal for northwestern Puerto Rico. Additionally, the Guajataca basin received less rain than usual, resulting in the reservoir to reach observational levels.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The lacks of wetting rains caused streamflow to run below to much below normal for northwestern Puerto Rico. Additionally, the Guajataca basin received less rain than usual, resulting in the reservoir to reach observational levels.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 19, 9:31 PM AST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 19, 9:31 PM AST, 2 hours 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
931 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023
.UPDATE...
Skies became partly cloudy to mostly clear during the late evening
ours as the shower activity over western Puerto Rico move offshore
over the coastal waters and continued to diminish. Meanwhile few showers
continued to make their along the east and southeast coastal areas
while producing mainly light to moderate showers. Estimated rainfall
accumulations in western Puerto Rico were between one to three inches
with the heaviest rainfall in isolated areas. No significant rainfall
accumulations was observed or reported in and around the USVI.
Local winds were from the east to southeast at 10 mph or less.
Both the recent TJSJ 20/00Z upper air and satellite derived total
precipitable water suggest a somewhat drier airmass making its way
across the area with fewer passing shower activity expected
overnight and into the morning hours. Otherwise no change to the
inherited short term forecast and reasoning at this time.
.Tropical Update...The National Hurricane Center continued to closely
monitor Tropical Storm Bret over the Central Atlantic, as this system
continues westward. Based on most recent guidance from the Hurricane
center, it will cross the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean by Friday
into Saturday with possible impacts to the region by Friday. A lot
of uncertainty with the track and intensity remains, therefore please
continue to monitor advisory updates from NOAA's National Hurricane
Center and WFO San Juan products and updated social media posts through
the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR conds durg entire prd. Mostly SCT lyrs nr FL025...
FL050 moving westward over the regional waters and en route btw islands.
Wdly SCT SHRA. Sfc lgt/vrb to calm becoming fm east to southeast 12
to 15 knots aft 20/14Z. No sig operational wx impacts attm.
.MARINE UPDATE...A light chop will continue across the local waters
overnight through Tuesday with seas mainly less than 4 feet and
gentle to moderate winds from the east to southeast. By the latter
part of the work week, Tropical Storm conditions will remain
possible due to the approach of Tropical storm Bret. Stay tuned
and keep up to date on the latest Bulletins and Advisories issued
by the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023/
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and clear to partly cloudy days with an increase of rainfall
during the afternoon hours due to convection will continue for
the next couple days with northwestern Puerto Rico forecast to
receive the best rainfall. Heat indices will continue to reach in
the 100s, even in the 110s in isolated spots.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Storm Bret
over the Central Atlantic. As this system moves toward the west,
it will approach the Lesser Antilles by late this week with
possible impacts to the region by Friday. Uncertainty with the
track remains, therefore one should keep monitoring updates from
NOAA's National Hurricane Center as we approach the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...
Since the afternoon hours, shower and thunderstorm activity was
seen across interior to west/northwest Puerto Rico, with rain
still falling across Rincon and Aguada with up to 4 inches in
these areas based on radar estimates. Light showers development
also occurred downwind of the local islands and from El Yunque.
Current activity over land should gradually diminish or move over
the waters around sunset. Winds were from the east to east-
southeast up to 15-20 mph in coastal areas, with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations. Temperatures where in the mid to upper 80s
across higher elevations of Puerto Rico to the upper 80s to low
90s across lower elevations of the islands. Heat indices reached
the 110s for various sectors of Puerto Rico. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across higher
elevations of Puerto Rico and in the upper 70s to low 80s across
lower elevations of the islands. Also, Tropical Storm Bret has
formed over the Central Atlantic and continues to move toward the
region.
A surface to mid-level ridge spread across the Atlantic Basin is
promoting southeasterly surface winds causing warm, breezy
conditions over the local islands for the next few days. Lingering
showers are possible across northwestern Puerto Rico late into the
evening today and passing showers may pass over eastern sections
overnight. Tomorrow, drier air moving across the region will limit
rain during the morning hours, however afternoon convection with
possible thunderstorms are forecast for northwestern Puerto Rico
during the afternoon hours. A moist airmass begins to move into the
region by late Wednesday morning, increase the rate of passing
showers and enhancing afternoon activity.
During these days, hot afternoons will continue with heat indices
reaching in the 100s near noon time each day. The northern coastline
of Puerto Rico will experience the warmest temperatures,
especially urban areas. A trend of Excessive Heat Advisories and
Warnings being in effect has ruled the last couple weeks as we
have experienced warmer than usual temperatures, and this trend is
possible to continue with Wednesday appearing quite warm in the
forecast as the increase of moisture raises heat indices to over
110F in certain regions.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Precipitable water content should increase gradually well above
normal values as a tropical system is expected to move across the
local area. Therefore, expect showers and isolated thunderstorms
to increase in coverage, with an elevated threat for excessive
rainfall across western PR and possibly eastern sections. Possible
tropical dangers associated to Tropical Storm Bret such as storm
surge and wind threats are still uncertain at this time as global
models continue to diverge in their solution. Also, uncertainty
with the track remains, therefore one should keep monitoring
updates from NOAA's National Hurricane Center as we approach the
weekend. Regardless, we are already in the Hurricane Season, and
residents and visitors should always be prepared and have their
emergency plans up to date in case of any tropical development.
Stay tuned for more updates.
&&
.MARINE...Seas generally between 2 to 4 feet driven by moderate to
locally fresh southeasterly winds will continue though the next few
days, with winds expected to strengthen by tomorrow. By the end of
the week, condition may begin to rapidly deteriorate as a
tropical system approaches the area. Uncertainty with the track
remains, therefore one should keep monitoring updates from NOAA's
National Hurricane Center as we approach the weekend.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....MMC
AVIATION...RAM
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 19, 5:07 AM AST, 18 hours 53 minutes before
Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
506 AM AST lunes 19 de junio de 2023
AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-200915-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe-
506 AM AST lunes 19 de junio de 2023
Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico.
.DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche
.Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a traves del noroeste de
Puerto Rico. Este atento a tronadas en su area y este preparado a
buscar refugio en caso de ser necesario.
.Lluvia Excesiva... Inundaciones urbanas, de carreteras y de
riachuelos localizadas se esperan en el noroeste de Puerto Rico.
Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles.
.Calor Excesivo...Indices de calor entre 102 a 108 grados se esperan
a traves de las elevaciones bajas y areas urbanas del norte central
de Puerto Rico. Agotamiento por calor o golpe de calor es probable
con exposicion prolongada.
.Viento...Condiciones ventosas se esperan a traves de las aguas
locales.
.DIAS DOS A SIETE...martes a domingo
Un riesgo elevado de calor excesivo se espera que persista el
martes, aumentando a significativo el miercoles con indices de calor
hasta los 112 grados. Un riesgo limitado de inundaciones y tronadas se
espera cada dia, excepto para el martes. Se esperan condiciones
ventosas hasta el sabado a traves de las aguas locales. El riesgo de
corrientes marinas se espera que aumente para finales de semana.
.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...
Se solicita que los observadores reporten cualquier informacion
acerca de tronadas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-200915-
San Tomas, San John y las Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la Costa del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
506 AM AST lunes 19 de junio de 2023
Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses.
.DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche
.Calor Excesivo...Se esperan indices de calor de 102 a 107 grados a
traves de todas las Islas Virgenes Americanas. Agotamiento por calor
o golpe de calor es probable con exposicion prolongada.
.Viento...Condiciones ventosas se esperan a traves de las aguas
locales.
.DIAS DOS A SIETE...martes a domingo
Se espera un riesgo de calor excesivo de limitado a elevado durante
el periodo a traves de las islas con indices de calor sobre los 100
grados. Se esperan condiciones ventosas a traves de las areas
locales desde el martes al sabado. Existe un riesgo moderado de
corrientes marinas para el sabado, a traves de Santa Cruz.
.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...
No es necesario activar a los observadores.
Drought, Northwest
- When
- June 20, 12:00 AM AST to June 30, 12:00 AM AST
- Where
- Northwest forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
Severe Drought were introduced for northwestern Puerto Rico due to the lacks of rain, causing rivers and reservoirs to go below to much below normal in the area.
Drought, North Central
- When
- June 20, 12:00 AM AST to June 30, 12:00 AM AST
- Where
- North Central forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
Severe Drought were introduced for northwestern Puerto Rico due to the lacks of rain, causing rivers and reservoirs to go below to much below normal in the area.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1098719, 1098720.