Life-threatening rip currents due to rough surf and large breaking waves were affecting northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra and the northern USVI. Nearshore buoys indicated breaking waves between 9 to 11 feet during the morning of Dec 13th.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Life-threatening rip currents due to rough surf and large breaking waves were affecting northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra and the northern USVI. Nearshore buoys indicated breaking waves between 9 to 11 feet during the morning of Dec 13th. Later that that a woman was presumed to be a victim of breaking waves at the Barceloneta coast near Isla Roque Beach. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for all surf zones across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and northern USVI.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 11:04 AM AST, 2 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1104 AM AST Thu Dec 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to windy conditions will persist across the region with
sustained winds between 15 to 20 mph, and higher wind gusts
between 25 to 35 mph. Remember to secure objects that could pose a
projectile risk. Pockets of shallow moisture and cloudiness will
continue to filter into the region, resulting in good periods of
isolated to scattered showers, especially over the windward
sections and northeastern section of Puerto Rico. Please exercise
caution across the local roadways.
.MARINE...
Recent bouy data at San Juan NDBC 41053 showed seas between 8-9
feet across the coastal areas with a period of 10 seconds. Another
bouy NDBC 41043 located over the offshore Atlantic report seas up
to 10 ft and periods of 11 seconds. Given the actual conditions,
the high surf advisory was extended trough 6 PM this evening.
Please stay tuned for further updates in the advisories and
statements.
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist for most of the TAF sites. Breezy to
windy conditions will persist during the day with winds from the
ENE at 15 to 19 knots with gusty winds up to 30 knots. Brief
passing showers will result in -RA to SHRA across TJSJ, TISX, TIST
during the day lowering ceilings and reducing VIS for brief
periods of MVFR.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Mid to upper leve ridge will continue to erode today thru the
Friday as an upper level trough sweeps eastward across the west
Atlantic and approaches the region over the weekend. A surface
ridge across the west Atlantic and a strong low pressure system
lifting northwards across the north central Atlantic, will maintain
east northeast to easterly winds across the region through Friday.
This will promote moderate to strong low level winds and breezy
to locally windy conditions today. A wind advisory will remain in
effect at least until later this morning. Rough and hazardous seas
will continue as well as and dangerous surf and coastal conditions
for all north and east facing beaches. A high risk of rip currents
will also continue for these beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
The western and southwestern parts of Puerto Rico experienced predominantly
clear skies, while other areas had varying cloud cover. Passing clouds
and occasional light to moderate showers affected most of the islands
periodically. Persistent east-northeast winds dragged patches of
trade wind moisture, bringing showers to coastal waters and reaching
inland areas mainly over the north and east sections of the islands.
Showery weather is anticipated to continue in these regions over
the next few hours, although they are expected to be brief. During
the morning hours, reduced visibility and slippery roads may be
observed in the affected area.
Throughout the night, pleasant temperatures persisted, ranging from
the mid to upper 70s in coastal areas to the low to mid-60s in higher
elevations and valleys. Breezy wind conditions persisted during the
night, with sustained winds ranging between 20-22 mph and gusts reaching
26-30 mph. Several weather stations in the northern and eastern coastal
sections of the islands reported these windy conditions early in the
night.
For the rest of the short-term forecast, variable weather conditions
will be observed, with increasing moisture expected by the weekend.
This afternoon and tonight, residual showers will persist, gradually
transitioning to slightly drier conditions by evening and late tonight.
The drop in relative humidities at 700-500mb and 850-700mb levels
to below-normal to near-normal levels will contribute to this change.
While some passing showers may occur, they are not expected to be
significant. Breezy conditions will persist, gradually diminishing
by tonight as the pressure gradient loosens over the local area.
By Friday, a surge in moisture is anticipated, remaining well above
normal through the weekend. Winds will shift from east-northeast to
more easterly as the surface pressure north of the area moves eastward.
Dynamically, a series of short-wave troughs and surface perturbations
will stream across the islands from Friday onwards. At low levels,
a broad and strong surface trough northeast of the Leeward Islands
will generate surface perturbations, carried by the easterly trades
toward the region. Some instability is indicated by 500mb temperatures
dropping to -5 to -6 Celsius and lower 250mb height fields, with 1000
mb-500 mb thickness also dropping to near normal levels. However,the
GFS Galvez Davison- Index suggests that most of the activity will
be shallow, with isolated thunderstorms occurring very sporadically.
The National Blend of Models predicts that northern and eastern
portions of Puerto Rico and smaller islands will experience the heaviest
rainfall during the short-term forecast, while the southern coastal
plains will observe less precipitation. There is approximately a
1-in-3 (33%) chance for rainfall accumulations to exceed one inch in
a 72-hour time frame through 17/06Z for northeastern portions of Puerto
Rico. Therefore, at most, this showery weather could lead to ponding
on roads and poorly drained areas, with possible urban and small stream
flooding, particularly over northeastern Puerto Rico.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
For the long term, model guidance have initialized well and remain
consistent, with only slight adjustments in forecast grids for the
timing and effect of the expected weather features. Above- normal
moisture levels are expected to persist through Saturday and still
forecast to gradually erode by Sunday and remaining at near-normal
levels by then. Ridging aloft will keep 500 mb temperatures relatively
warmer than the climatological normal with 250 mb height fields higher
than usual at least until Sunday but thereafter expect cooler mid to
upper level temperatures with the approach of a polar trough. Consequently,
by then conditions are to become more unstable and thus become more
favorable for isolated convective development. Breezy wind conditions
will continue, but they are anticipated to be considerably less pronounced
compared to recent days.
From Monday and through the remainder of the long- term forecast models
guidance continue to suggest the strengthening of an area of low pressure
over the south to southeast Gulf of Mexico and this feature is so far
expected to move across the southeast United States over the upcoming
weekend, then progress northward into the western Atlantic. As this
unfolds, an elongated frontal boundary associated with the low pressure
system is projected to approach and envelop the local area, with Tuesday
through Wednesday so far anticipated to be the wettest days.
This scenario is expected to will lead to east southeast winds which
will lift abundant columnar moisture, thus causing good moisture convergence
across the northeastern Caribbean and local islands. By then,conditions
aloft will become more conducive for deep convection. Again, it's crucial
to note that the timing and positioning of these features are subject
to change with varying models and each subsequent model cycle. Regardless,
there is an indication that the latter portion of the long- term forecast,
will again transition towards a more unsettled and wet weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds durg prd. However, brief MVFR cigs are
possible at TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST thru at least 14/14z due to -SHRA/SHRA.
ENE winds at 20-25 kt at FL040...FL050. Sfc winds will vary between
15 and 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt or higher after 14/12z.
&&
.MARINE...Fresh to locally strong east northeast to east winds
are expected to continue through the rest of today, with seas
remain rough between 8-12 feet and occasionally higher across
Atlantic offshore waters. East to east- northeast winds up to 20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots will remain possible. Therefore,
Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least Sunday for
several areas. Please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message
(MWWSJU) for more information.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
005-008-012.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ003.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ013.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for VIZ001-002.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
723-741.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Friday for AMZ726-742.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Saturday for AMZ733.
&&
SHORT TERM & AVIATION...LIS
PUBLIC....MRRPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR 427 AM AST jueves 14 de diciembre de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-150830- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe- 427 AM AST jueves 14 de diciembre de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en carreteras y áreas mal drenadas a través del este de Puerto Rico. Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles. .Viento...Brisa a condiciones de viento fuerte. Los artículos no asegurados podrían salir volando con áreas localizadas observando artículos al aire libre volando o dañarse. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 10 pies a través de las aguas del Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables a través de las playas locales. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miércoles Tiempo lluvioso persistirá a lo largo de las secciones del norte y este de las islas hasta al menos el fin de semana. Por lo tanto, el estanque de agua en las carreteras y en áreas de drenaje pobre será posible. Las condiciones de brisa a ventosas serán probables a lo largo de la semana hasta el fin de semana, y cualquier objeto pequeño suelto o no asegurado podría volarse o dañarse. Las condiciones marinas y costeras permanecerán peligrosas debido a las condiciones de viento vigoroso a fuerte esperadas. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-150830- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 427 AM AST jueves 14 de diciembre de 2023 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Viento...Condiciones de brisa fuerte. Los artículos no asegurados podrían salir volando. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 10 pies a través de las aguas del Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. . Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables a través de las playas locales. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miércoles Tiempo lluvioso persistirá a lo largo de las secciones del norte y este de las islas hasta al menos el fin de semana. Por lo tanto, el estanque de agua en las carreteras y en áreas de drenaje pobre será posible. Las condiciones de brisa a ventosas serán probables a lo largo de la semana hasta el fin de semana, y cualquier objeto pequeño suelto o no asegurado podría volarse o dañarse. Las condiciones marinas y costeras permanecerán peligrosas debido a las condiciones de viento vigoroso a fuerte esperadas. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.
1 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
In the morning hours of today, the drowned body of a 63-year-old woman, who had been missing since Dec 13th, was found. In the police investigation, it is presumed that she was a victim of large breaking waves while she was walking along the rocky area of the Barceloneta coast near Isla Roque Beach.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Surf, North Central | 2023-12-14 | 63 | Female | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1151379.