Northwest PA resided in a warm and very humid air mass during the late morning through early evening of the 6th as a cold front approached slowly from the western Great Lakes. A line of multicell thunderstorms persisted eastward along a pre-front surface trough axis and generated localized straight-line convective wind damage in the Erie area as the storms encountered moderate MUCAPE, DCAPE, and…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.
Northwest PA resided in a warm and very humid air mass during the late morning through early evening of the 6th as a cold front approached slowly from the western Great Lakes. A line of multicell thunderstorms persisted eastward along a pre-front surface trough axis and generated localized straight-line convective wind damage in the Erie area as the storms encountered moderate MUCAPE, DCAPE, and effective bulk shear, respectively, in northwest PA.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 6, 1:00 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure exits east as a cold front moves east across the lower Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. A trough will linger over the region through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Early Afternoon Update... Tweaked PoPs this afternoon and evening. The main show will likely be the current band of convection along the I-71 corridor. This has gradually propagated east during the day tied to low-level moisture convergence ahead of a pre-frontal trough. This will continue to progress through NE Ohio this afternoon, reaching NW PA by early evening. The main threat is locally heavy rainfall since deep layer flow is parallel to the boundary with deep, warm cloud layers and PWATs of roughly 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Dropped PoPs behind this line the rest of the afternoon through the evening since extensive cloud cover and rain cooled air are lingering upstream, so redevelopment will be tough ahead of the actual cold front. Nevertheless, at least widely scattered showers will continue as the front crosses later this evening into tonight, so kept slight chance to chance PoPs. 9:30 AM Update... Increased PoPs in NW and north central Ohio this morning since a band of showers and thunderstorms has been developing ahead of schedule. This is tied to moisture convergence ahead of a pre- frontal trough. There is no shear in the warm sector at the moment since the synoptic cold front is well back to the west over the western Great Lakes, so the main impact is locally heavy rainfall with this slow moving activity. More expansive showers and thunderstorms over Indiana will gradually progress east and northeastward into the region this afternoon, so still expect fairly widespread coverage everywhere by late afternoon and evening. The associated cloud shield may further limit the severe weather potential this evening, but with gradually increasing shear and warm, humid airmass, isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible, mainly in the 20 to 00Z timeframe. The bigger concern will be locally heavy rainfall and flooding in urban and poor drainage areas since the deep layer flow is parallel to the boundary and PWATs are nearing 2 inches with deep, warm cloud layers. This will support some training and efficient rainfall rates. 7:10 AM Update... Forecast generally remains on track but did make a few adjustments to PoPs through this evening. A few showers have begun to develop across western Ohio and will slowly make their way into western zones early this morning. The main show will be later this morning and early afternoon along the pre- frontal trough. A complex of storms along the Illinois/Indiana border will continue to track east this morning and enter western zones before noon this morning. Previous discussion... Broad southerly flow will allow for another humid day with above normal temperatures. The mid/upper ridge axis that has been keeping the area warm and humid for the past few days will shift toward the Northeast today as an upper trough swings into the area from the Upper Midwest this evening. Temperatures areawide in the upper 80s with dew points nearing 70 degrees, coupled with multiple lifting mechanisms, will allow for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through late this evening. A prefrontal trough and associated upper level shortwave disturbance enter from the west later this morning and will provide support for the first round of showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for strong to severe storms will be later in the afternoon as the airmass becomes unstable and MUCAPE values rise to ~1500 J/kg. Fairly limited shear this afternoon as 0-6 km bulk shear values will be near 20 knots. Another round of showers and storms is possible later in the evening as the surface cold front enters from the west. However, current timing of the cold front may be late enough in the evening where the instability and shear will be reduced as we lose daytime heating. The SPC has kept the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe storms with a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. Expect one last night of warm overnight lows in the upper 60s tonight ahead of the frontal passage. The cold front will slowly track east across the forecast area through much of Thursday. Expect for showers and storms to persist across the eastern half of the forecast area through the near term period. Will need to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and training storms on Thursday as weak flow aloft parallel to the front paired with ensemble mean PWAT values hovering between the 75th to 90th percentile. Additionally, can't rule out a strong storm or two on Thursday across eastern zones if enough instability can be realized ahead of the cold front. Highs on Thursday will generally be in the upper 70s, cooler across western zones behind the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough over the Great Lakes will lift into western Quebec by Friday. Surface low pressure will depart to the northeast ahead of this feature with a cold front/trough lagging back across Lake Erie Thursday night. With plenty of lingering low level moisture and convergence along the frontal boundary, expect to see scattered showers over the central basin of Lake Erie that will move onshore into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania overnight into Friday morning. Showers may shift a little farther inland through the day on Friday as the front pushes south to West Virginia. A more persist axis could also develop as the flow above 850mb is expected to remain southwesterly which could result in a favored area of re-development. Pops may need to trend upward across portions of the snowbelt as confidence increases in placement. The weather will feel more fall-like with a stratocu deck and high temperatures confined to the lower 70s. Low level flow remains northeasterly off the lake heading into the weekend and have held onto a low pop downwind of the lake for Friday night into Saturday. Mid-levels are rather dry but sufficient low level moisture and convergence over the warm lake may help to keep a few showers going. By Saturday afternoon we start to get some mid- level moisture rotating back north around the upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley. Pops are a touch higher during the afternoon across our southeastern counties to account for this although overall confidence in the progress of this moisture still warrants keeping pops low. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s for a second day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... By Sunday, models are coming into better agreement that a deep trough will be in place across the eastern United States with a piece of energy moving north to the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring thickening cloud cover to eastern areas and another chance of showers east of I-71. This trough is expected to move east on Monday with dry conditions in the forecast and slightly warmer temperatures. Model details struggle beyond this time but generally agree that another trough will swing south into the Great Lakes Region towards the middle of next week. This will warrant a chance of showers in the forecast again by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... A line of showers and thunderstorms currently stretching from CLE to MFD will continue to progress eastward this afternoon through early evening, reaching CAK around 20Z and ERI and YNG around 21Z. This line will bring brief heavy rain, wind gusts to 30 knots, and MVFR to possibly IFR visibility. Behind this line, uncertainty is higher if much redevelopment will occur this evening as the cold front moves into Ohio, but until the front crosses tonight into Thursday morning, at least widely scattered showers remain possible. Kept VCSH to reflect this, and these chances will linger the longest over CLE, CAK, YNG, and ERI where the front will slow on Thursday. The theme will definitely be lowering cigs Thursday morning as cooler air begins arriving aloft, so MVFR should become more prevalent by mid morning. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots from west to east across Lake Erie into tonight ahead of a cold front crossing the lake. Winds will veer to westerly on Thursday and eventually northwesterly behind a secondary cold front that will cross the lake Thursday night. Potential for waterspouts will increase along this frontal boundary Thursday night into Friday morning before the flow becomes focused more onshore with high pressure building to the north. Waves will be somewhat choppy in the 2-3 foot range heading into the weekend with the onshore flow but are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will strengthen north of the lake through the first half of the weekend followed by a trough extending back north across the eastern Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend. With a cooler airmass in place we may see additional windows with waterspouts possible. && .CLIMATE... Unusual warmth persists through Wednesday. Here are record high temperatures for September 6th for reference. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 09-06 95(1990) 94(1954) 98(1954) 96(1954) 93(1954) 93(2007) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Iverson SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...KEC CLIMATE...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 441 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-070845- Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga- Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull- Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow- Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie- 441 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LEZ061-142>149-162>169-070845- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH- Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH- Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH- Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY- Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM offshoreline to US-Canadian border- Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border- The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the- Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the- Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- 441 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a chance for waterspouts east of the Islands late Thursday night into early Friday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1121 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-061600-
Crawford OH-Seneca OH-Wyandot OH-Wood OH-Hancock OH-Ottawa OH-
Sandusky OH-Lucas OH-
1121 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Ottawa, Seneca,
Wyandot, Sandusky, northern Crawford, eastern Wood, eastern Hancock
and northeastern Lucas Counties through NOON EDT...
At 1120 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fremont to near Upper Sandusky. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Tiffin, Fremont, Fostoria, Upper Sandusky, Oregon, Clyde,
Northwood, Oak Harbor, Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville, Forest, Elmore,
Green Springs, New Washington, Bloomville, Sycamore, Arcadia and
Vanlue.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4173 8350 4169 8343 4169 8336 4166 8324
4164 8323 4162 8312 4154 8299 4147 8297
4145 8304 4145 8301 4143 8301 4145 8297
4143 8295 4101 8283 4094 8279 4070 8349
4082 8350 4082 8353 4126 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1520Z 241DEG 32KT 4133 8323 4086 8332
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
CampbellSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1202 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
OHZ009-018-019-061630-
Seneca OH-Huron OH-Erie OH-
1202 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Huron,
eastern Seneca and Erie Counties through 1230 PM EDT...
At 1202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bloomville, or 7 miles east of Tiffin, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Bellevue, Willard, Bloomville, Monroeville, Attica, North Fairfield,
Republic and Flat Rock.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4126 8294 4125 8284 4132 8284 4135 8278
4108 8255 4099 8305 4115 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 1602Z 239DEG 25KT 4111 8303
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
JaszkaSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
104 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
OHZ009>011-019-061730-
Huron OH-Erie OH-Lorain OH-Cuyahoga OH-
104 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Huron,
Erie, west central Cuyahoga and northern Lorain Counties through 130
PM EDT...
At 104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vermilion, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lorain, Elyria, Western Vermilion, Vermilion, Lakewood, Westlake,
North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, Amherst, Wakeman, North Olmsted, Avon,
Rocky River, Bay Village, Sheffield Lake, Oberlin, Sheffield, South
Amherst, Pittsfield and Berlin Heights.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4148 8189 4149 8182 4115 8232 4139 8255
4138 8248 4143 8236 4143 8227 4147 8218
4152 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 227DEG 33KT 4138 8229
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
CampbellSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
320 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
OHZ012>014-089-062000-
Geauga OH-Lake OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
320 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Geauga,
northeastern Lake and Ashtabula Counties through 400 PM EDT...
At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ashtabula to Chardon. Movement was northeast at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Chardon, Geneva-On-The-Lake, Geneva, Madison,
North Kingsville, Perry, Orwell, Huntsburg, Claridon, Austinburg,
Montville, Kingsville, Hartsgrove, Roaming Shores, Pierpont, Cherry
Valley, North Perry and Thompson.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4164 8053 4150 8100 4148 8127 4163 8127
4183 8108 4186 8099 4187 8090 4189 8082
4192 8080 4191 8077 4198 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 235DEG 26KT 4189 8083 4156 8122
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SullivanSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
329 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
PAZ001-002-062045-
Northern Erie PA-Southern Erie PA-
329 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Erie County through
445 PM EDT...
At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northwest of Girard to near Conneaut
to 10 miles south of Ashtabula. Movement was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Erie, Corry, Edinboro, North East, Union City, Girard, Waterford,
Albion, Wattsburg, Northwest Harborcreek, Harborcreek, Lawrence Park,
Wesleyville, Lake City, Cranesville, Platea, Mill Village, McKean,
Elgin and Avonia.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4201 7976 4200 7961 4185 7962 4185 8052
4198 8051 4204 8031 4212 8013 4213 8015
4213 8012 4214 8009 4215 8011 4214 8014
4217 8012 4217 8008 4215 8010 4215 8006
4227 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 255DEG 32KT 4207 8052 4189 8061 4173 8075
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SullivanPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0205 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 3 N Cleveland 41.52N 81.68W
09/06/2023 M44 MPH Cuyahoga OH ASOS
ASOS station KBKL Cleveland.
0218 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNW Fairport Harbor 41.76N 81.28W
09/06/2023 M41 MPH Lake OH Buoy
Buoy station FAIO1 Fairport, OH.
0315 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NNE Conneaut 41.98N 80.56W
09/06/2023 M40 MPH LEZ149 OH Mesonet
Mesonet station XCON Conneaut Light.
&&
JSThe Buffalo radar (KBUF), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:48 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree downed along Hershey Road, near I-79, in Erie, PA area.
Large tree limb snapped at Penn State Behrend Campus in Erie, PA area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1164869, 1164870.