NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 5:10 PM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 5:10 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
610 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure remains anchored off the Eastern Seaboard
through the weekend. Several disturbances will affect the area
through the end of the week until a cold front passes through
the region Saturday night through Sunday morning. High pressure
builds in from the north and west for the start of the new week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 6:05PM...Thunderstorms have been a bit slower reaching
our region than anticipated. However, storms are on our doorstep
and are beginning to cross into our CWA. The environment
remains prime for severe weather into this evening as a
shortwave propagates further towards us; plenty of ML CAPE
(1500-2500 J/kg) is in place with acceptable shear. The biggest
concern accompanying these storms will be the potential for
severe wind. DCAPE values are pushing upwards of 1200 J/kg right
now and even higher locally in some locations...strong
downbursts leading to damaging wind gusts are the greatest
concern.
PWATs are still pushing 2 inches...any storms that do develop
have the capability to drop a good amount of rainfall quickly.
Thinking flooding will mainly be localized as storm motion
should be quick, but more serious flooding issues could arise if
some areas see multiple rounds of thunderstorms. WPC maintains
a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall from I-95 on west.
Showers and thunderstorms should largely move out by midnight,
and it should be quiet night overall. Main story will be the
elevated low temperatures as there won't be much relief.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s with some spots in
southern Delmarva and along the coast staying in the upper 70s.
Some patchy fog may develop late especially in areas that see
some rainfall today.
For the dangerous heat Friday...
Quite possibly the hottest and most humid day for most of the
region will occur on Friday. High pressure remains anchored off
the East Coast, but drifts a bit to the east and continues the
conveyer belt of heat and humidity from the south. Still
looking at high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s for much
of the forecast area, except for the low 90s along the coasts
and in the upper 80s to low 90s in the southern Poconos.
Overall, heat index values will exceed 105 along the I-95
corridor and points south and east with 100-104 north and west,
with the exception of the Pocono Plateau. Heat Advisories were
expanded to include coastal Sussex County, Delaware and Monmouth
County, NJ, where even the beaches are not expected to see much
relief. All preexisting Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect.
There is one fly in the ointment is some high-res guidance is
showing a leftover boundary from Thursday's storms lingering
into Friday and bisecting the region. This would potentially
complicate the temperature and dewpoint forecast either due to
lower temps/dewpoints across the northern counties and/or
increased cloud coverage during peak daytime heating.
Regardless, any difference in temperatures or dewpoints would
only provide a minor change in the heat index, thus it will
still be a dangerously hot and humid day Friday for everyone.
Furthermore, there looks to be a weak mid-level shortwave moving
across the southern half of the region late afternoon/early
evening. Given the very hot and humid conditions and overall
instability, a few strong thunderstorms are not out of the
question for southeast PA, southern NJ, and the Delmarva. As a
result, nudged POPs up to a chance for much of these areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Frontal boundary will remain well to our north Friday night before
starting to sag southward Saturday, but won't really cross the
region until Saturday night. Thus, we'll remain very warm and very
humid, with the main factor limiting heat being debris clouds and
thunderstorm development. So, looks like we'll manage a legitimate
heat wave for most, and have extended heat advisories for the I-95
corridor southward through Saturday afternoon.
Precipitation/storm wise, Friday evening we may get storms which
develop to our west and southwest near the Appalachians earlier in
the afternoon, so have some chance pops which diminish over the
night. Otherwise, bulk of the night looks fairly quiet with very
warm lows in the 70s.
Timing of precip on Saturday is a bit hard given multiple shortwaves
competing for CAPE and potential debris clouds. Thus, have POPS
ramping up from the morning through afternoon and sliding southward
into the evening, then diminishing overnight, but not particularly
confident on this scenario. Potential exists for widespread storms
moving west to east thru the afternoon, or one wave of storms in the
north morning and another in the south late in the day. But, does
look like we'll quiet down as the front slides south across the
region later Saturday night, with lows dropping into the 60s north
and low 70s central/south.
Sunday will be feel completely different, with much cooler and drier
air mass building in. Some lingering showers may remain in the
southern areas early, but should diminish by midday. Another much
weaker front may approach from the northwest late in the day, but
not expecting more than a few showers with it mainly in the Poconos.
Highs mostly in the low-mid 80s with dew points dropping well down
into the 60s, and possibly reaching the 50s north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall, quiet period with comfortable Canadian air mass through
most of the upcoming week. Canadian high pressure will dominate most
of the period, with a weak passing cold front reinforcing the air
mass on Monday evening before a warm front approaches from the
southwest later Thursday. Thus, have mostly sub-slight chance pops
until Thursday, when we ramp them up to chance with the approaching
warm front, but highs will be in the low-mid 80s throughout, with
lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sunday night-Tuesday night, then
warming a bit into the solid 60s Wednesday night. August looks to
start decidedly un-August like!
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
The rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR conditions will be
threatened by a developing line of convection approaching the
region. It remains very possible that Lehigh Valley and I-95
terminals will seeing direct impacts from evening convection.
Maintained a TEMPO TSRA group at those terminals, where
visibility could drop to as low as 2 miles. Winds will be out of
the south around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Higher gusts are
possible in any thunderstorms. Moderate confidence overall.
Tonight...Primarily VFR. Showers/Thunderstorms clear out
between 01z-04z. Patchy fog developing late could bring some
sub-VFR conditions. Winds will be out of the southwest around 5
kt or less. Moderate confidence overall, but low confidence on
fog/stratus development.
Friday...Prevailing VFR during the day. An afternoon shower or
thunderstorm is possible, mainly south, but confidence remains
low. Fog may develop late at night with sub- VFR VSBYs. SW
winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10
kt at night. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday...Primarily VFR, but intervals of IFR possible with showers
and thunderstorms. Winds southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20
kts. Moderate confidence.
Sunday...VFR. Winds northwest around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.
Moderate confidence.
Monday...VFR. Winds northwest around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.
High confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. Winds northwest 5-10 kts with gusts to 15 kts. High
confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory continues through 4 AM Friday with seas
generally in the 3-6 foot range and winds out of the
south/southwest around 20-25 kt gusting to around 30 kt.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible mid evening into early
tonight. Sub- SCA conditions are expected after 4 AM Friday as
winds and seas diminish.
For the Delaware Bay, no marine headlines are anticipated.
Waves around 1 to 3 feet are expected on the lower Bay with
south/southwest winds around 10-20 kt and gusts in the low 20s.
Showers and thunderstorms possible this evening into early
tonight. Winds and seas diminish for tonight with
south/southwest winds settling to around 10 kt.
Expecting to stay just shy of small craft conditions on Friday
with SW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt
during the day, then around 10 kt gusting to 15 kt at night.
Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Outlook...
Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Winds southwest
10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Waves 3-4 ft possibly
topping 5 ft. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Sunday...Winds north 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Waves 2-4 ft.
Monday...Winds north 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Waves 2-4 ft.
Tuesday...Winds north-northeast around 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts.
Waves 2-3 ft.
Rip Currents...
Given forecasted elevated seas and an underlying long period
swell at the Delaware Beaches and southern Jersey Shore, the
forecasted risk for the development of rip currents is MODERATE
today. Seas should decrease on Friday, so at this point it
looks as if most areas will see a LOW risk on Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Near record breaking heat is forecast for Thursday night
through Friday night. Records for our climate sites are listed
below:
July 28 July 28 July 29
Warmest Low Warmest High Warmest Low
Site Record/Year Record/Year Record/Year
Allentown (ABE) 75/1934 97/1949 75/2002
AC Airport (ACY) 80/2020 98/1999 78/2002
AC Marina (55N) 78/2020 96/1999 78/2020
Georgetown (GED) 76/2022 99/1949 78/2011
Mount Pocono (MPO) 69/1955 93/1949 71/2002
Philadelphia (PHL) 79/2020 100/1941 81/1995
Reading (RDG) 78/1949 99/1941 78/1949
Trenton (TTN) 76/1949 98/1940 77/2002
Wilmington (ILG) 76/2020 101/1894 82/1894
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
Heat Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
PAZ070-071-104-106.
Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for
PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for PAZ060>062-101-103-
105.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for NJZ009-010-012-013-015-
017>020-027.
Heat Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
NJZ010-012-013-015-017>020-027.
Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for
NJZ009-010-012-013-015-017>020-027.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ014-016-021>023.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007-008.
DE...Heat Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001.
Heat Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
DEZ001.
Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for
DEZ001.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004.
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...MJL/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...MJL/RCM
MARINE...MJL/RCM
CLIMATE...