A strong front brought heavy swell and large southerly wind waves to the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A strong front brought heavy swell and large southerly wind waves to the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 8:56 AM PST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
856 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023
.UPDATE...Showers will continue today, mainly in northern
California and west of the Cascades in southern Oregon.
Precipitation will gradually retreat to the west through the day
as high pressure attempts to rebuild to our east, but this will be
short lived once the next front arrives tomorrow. There were no
updates necessary this morning, as the forecast is right on track
with ongoing conditions. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...12/12Z TAFs...The main concerns today into early Friday
will remain gusty southerly winds, mountain wave turbulence, and low
level wind shear.
Ceilings will remain mainly VFR. However, can not rule out brief
periods of MVFR ceilings with partial mountain obscurations in
heavier precipitation from the coast to the Cascades this morning.
-DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Thursday, January 12th 2023...A front
will stall just west of the outer waters. This will result in south
gales persisting through early Friday morning. A large west swell
will persist in the waters today, and peak tonight before
diminishing Friday afternoon. The combination of wind driven seas
and heavy swell will result in very dangerous mixed seas.
Conditions will remain active late Friday into the weekend with
winds expected to be mostly at advisory strength. Steep to very
steep and hazardous seas are likely to continue with a mix of wind
waves, fresh swell, and swell. Steep seas may reach a minimum on
Monday. -DW/CZS
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 230 AM PST Thursday, January 12th
2023... South winds near shore will reach peak strength this morning
with gusts up to 55 mph. But, winds then only weaken slightly
and remain gusty into Friday morning.
The combination of the building wind waves and a building long
period west swell will create hazardous conditions (with breaking
waves of 25 to 30 feet) this morning into Friday morning. The
highest surf is likely to occur around Port Orford and Cape Blanco
and other south to southwest facing beaches.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023/
SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight 1/12)...Radar imagery is
showing precipitation along much of the coast, and portions of the
West Side as well as a few showers in southern Siskiyou County.
This precipitation is part of a front that likely has stalled
across the area as a ridge of high pressure retrogrades and builds
in tonight. A warm front, meanwhile, has moved through the area
and snow levels are rising. In general, expect the precipitation
to become more focused along the coast and the Coast Range
overnight and today. However, this will really depend on where
things line up, and so will keep at least a slight chance of
rainfall as far east as the Cascades this morning before
retrograding it westward in the afternoon.
In addition to the precipitation, the aforementioned broader
synoptic patterns (front and the ridge) will continue to create
gusty south winds at the coast this morning, and continued across
the Shasta and southern edge of the Rogue Valleys today. High Wind
Warnings continue for the Coast and the Shasta Valley, and a Wind
Advisory continues for the Rogue Valley. In fact, have extended
the wind advisory to go through 4 AM Friday since most of the
short-term high resolution guidance suggests that the gusty winds
will continue. Additionally, there will be some breezy to gusty
winds along the higher terrain of the East Side, but these winds
will be confined to the higher terrain and would be brief and
relatively isolated. Therefore, have not issued any wind
advisories for these areas, but will continue to monitor the
situation in case they are needed. Please see the NPWMFR for more
details on the gusty and strong winds.
As if our weather was not baffling enough already, depending on
cloud cover in the Rogue Valley, these winds could help drive our
temperatures up into the mid to upper 60s today. Right now, the
breezy downsloping winds are warming temperatures to a balmy 53
degrees. While model guidance is suggesting cooler temperatures
with some cloud cover, have gone ahead and split the difference
with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. In addition, Areas of the
Coast and Umpqua Basin may also see these 10 degree above normal
temperatures as well. Elsewhere, expect cooler albeit still
warmer than normal temperatures. -Schaaf
LONG TERM...Previous Long term, issued 1/11/23...(Friday 1/13
through Wednesday 1/18). The pattern will remain active through
most of next week with a series of storms lined up over the
Pacific remains fairly consistent with systems lined up as far
west as the Aleutians.
The main challenge during this time will be the timing,
intensity, and track of each individual upper low trough, surface
fronts and surface low pressures. There is a great deal of spread
across the ensemble suites, so it is very difficult, even
impossible, to nail down the details of any one system at this
time. That being said, we can expect the wet and windy pattern to
continue, with frontal systems passing every one to two days.
On Friday, the front will move inland in the afternoon.
Precipitation amounts will be highest along the south coast,
coastal mountains and Siskiyou county, especially around the Mount
Shasta area. However were not expecting anything significant as
precipitation rates will diminish once the front moves inland
later Friday. Snow levels should remain above 5000 feet, so winter
impacts will not be widepsread.
Saturday, there's fairly good agreement among the operational
ECMWF and GFS showing a stronger surface low developing and moving
inside of 130 W Saturday morning and moving northeast. At the
same time the upper trough will become negatively tilted. Looking
further into the ECMWF ensemble members showing the location of
the individual surface low members show a pretty tight group
inside of 130 W. The GEFS shows a little more spread with a few
individual members showing a secondary group off the California
coast. Given the above mentioned we could be looking at chance for
moderate to strong winds along the coast, Shasta Valley, eastside
and possible the south end of the Rogue Valley. Given it's still
a few days out, we'll continue to monitor and if the guidance
comes into better agreement, then wind headlines may be necessary.
Additional fronts are expected Sunday through most of next week,
but there is wide spread in the models, so the forecast will
continue to carry a general chance of precipitation through the
rest of the forecast term. Temperatures are expected to remain
around normal for this time of year.
There is "some" evidence supporting a pattern change towards the
21st with troughing developing in the eastern part of the U.S. with
ridging building over the Pacific Northwest. A different data set
(showing the same parameters) were not as convincing showing
continued troughing over the Pac NW. -Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-
356.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ370-
376.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
553 AM PST THU JAN 12 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM HEAVY RAIN GOLD BEACH 42.41N 124.42W
01/12/2023 M1.58 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR AMOUNT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
921 AM PST THU JAN 12 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TALENT 42.26N 122.75W
01/11/2023 M45 MPH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH.
&&
BPNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
922 AM PST THU JAN 12 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE MURPHY 42.36N 123.33W
01/12/2023 M1.60 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
4 HOUR TOTAL.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
The Point Saint George buoy (46027) and the Umpqua Offshore buoy (46229) reported swell sufficient to generate high surf.
The Point Saint George buoy (46027) and the Umpqua Offshore buoy (46229) reported swell sufficient to generate high surf.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1080914, 1080915.