Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 17, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
259 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

A complex of storms continues to move south across portions of OK
east of the fa. However, there is a small chance far eastern
portions of the fa may still end up affected as it continues to move
south and southeast across the region. There is also a low chance
that a few isolated storms develop and affect portions of northern
and maybe central OK later this afternoon and evening although most
if not all locations are expected to remain dry this evening/night.
If these storms do develop, damaging winds and large hail will be a
concern.

Heat will be the story across the area Tuesday. Breezy southwest
winds are expected tomorrow. Drier air/mixing is expected with these
winds but there is some uncertainty as to the extent of mixing that
will occur and how much sfc dewpoints will lower. On the other side,
evapotranspiration should be ongoing which could counteract some of
the mixing. What all this boils down to is that if the
evapotranspiration wins then hot and humid conditions will prevail
whereas if mixing wins then hot and dry conditions will prevail.
Anyway you put it, it will likely be uncomfortable for most
tomorrow, especially if you are going to be outdoors. With that in
mind have expanded the heat advisory to across the rest of the fa.
An excessive heat warning could be needed in some areas for tomorrow
but with the uncertainty will hold off and let later shifts get
another look at models, etc before a decision is made.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Models show the upper high continuing over portions of the region
for a few more days things shift back west and ridge builds over the
western U.S. shifting the region back to WNW/NW flow aloft later in
the week and over the weekend.

Meanwhile, models show a cold front moving into parts of the fa
Tuesday night. This boundary is expected to stall over portions of
the fa before another impulse/shortwave moves across the region
pushing the boundary a little further south Wednesday
night/Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms could be possible along
and north of the boundary Wednesday evening/night. Higher chances
for showers and storms will be Thursday evening/night with another
shortwave moving across the region. With a return to WNW/NW flow,
the potential for storms developing in the High Plains and moving
across portions of the area overnight into the morning will keep
rain chances through the weekend.

With the upper high influencing the region over the next few days,
hot conditions will continue in at least parts of the fa, especially
ahead of the previously mentioned frontal boundary with the
potential for heat advisories to continue for a few more days.
Temperatures are then expected to drop back down closer or below
average for most areas the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

The main concern in the near term is the potential for scattered
convection across northern into northeast Oklahoma (KPNC/KSWO)
through early this evening. A brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions
(with erratic/gusty winds) would be expected should a storm directly
impact a terminal. While guidance diverges beyond 00 UTC/7 PM CDT
this evening, additional convective chances may ultimately
develop near northern Oklahoma terminals. For now, this chance
appears greatest at KPNC, though mentions of precip will not be
included at this update given the uncertainty.

Otherwise, after 09-10 UTC/4-5 AM CDT Tuesday morning, areas of
low-level wind shear are expected from south-central into northern
Oklahoma. Widespread VFR conditions, with passing high clouds and
gusty southwest winds, are expected on Tuesday areawide.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 102  78 101 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75 105  76 105 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 109  79 107 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75 105  73 101 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     73 102  76  98 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         77 102  79 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>006-
     008>011-014>017-021>023-033>038.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ007-012-013-018>020-
     024>032-039>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...34

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
705 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-190015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
705 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across northwestern Oklahoma
through the late evening hours. Large hail up to the size of
tennis balls and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Heat...
Hot temperatures are expected again Tuesday and Wednesday
throughout the area, and into Thursday across north Texas and
southern Oklahoma.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance of storms across northern Oklahoma Wednesday
night, and Thursday night into Friday with storms possible through
most of the area on Saturday.

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