Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, August 29, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Northerly flow and an embedded shortwave trough is resulting in
continued reinforcement of a drier and cooler air mass (at least
compared to last week) into Southern Plains today.

Ascent ahead of the wave has resulted in isolated convection
across the Texas panhandle, which may clip southwest
Oklahoma/north Texas late afternoon into the early evening. If
thunderstorms do make it this far west, gusty winds is the primary
hazard given the large temperature-dewpoint spreads (~35 to 40
deg F) and inverted-V soundings. Otherwise, the main impact from
this wave is increased mid to high level clouds.

Otherwise, the relatively dry air mass will result in another
night with lows ranging from the 50s to upper 60s deg F. Northerly
flow will continue into Wednesday with the mid-level ridge
centered across the southwest U.S., which will keep temperatures
near average for the afternoon.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate that the mid-level
ridge will expand back to the east with a strengthening low-level
thermal ridge toward the latter part of the week into the upcoming
weekend. The ~595 dam mid-level ridge will result in above-
average temperatures returning across the Southern Plains. As a
result, there is high confidence of temperatures ranging from the
mid 90s to low 100s deg F across the area. These temperatures are
around 5 to 10 deg F above average for early September. However,
record-breaking heat is unlikely (e.g., only ~5% chance at Wichita
Falls of reaching their record high on Sunday).

The notable difference from the period of excessive heat earlier
this month is low-level moisture/dewpoints should be lower. For
example, at Durant (where the highest dew points are expected),
probabilistic guidance has only a ~10% chance of dew points at 70
deg F or higher on Sunday. Therefore, heat indices and wetbulb
globe temperatures will not be as dangerously high. Therefore,
heat advisories or excessive heat warnings appear unlikely at this
time. Nevertheless, it'll still be seasonably hot for anyone who
is planning to be outdoors (and remember--these are forecast
temperatures in the shade). The lower dew points will result in
elevated fire weather conditions beginning Friday, especially
across north Texas and adjacent parts of Oklahoma.

One feature to watch is an upper-level low/easterly wave across
Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to drift westward into Texas this
weekend. Depending on the strength of the ridge, this feature may
affect southern parts of the area late into the weekend into early
next week. While the probabilities are currently not too high
(<10%), it seems reasonable that at least isolated convection is
possible. In addition, low-level moisture may also increase by
early next week, which would result in higher heat indices.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

VFR will apply through the forecast period. Some mid to high
clouds will slowly drift southward into early this evening, and
some cumulus may develop near PNC later this afternoon. There's a
non-zero chance of some showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing over the previously mentioned area, but confidence is
far too low to include any TS at PNC. Winds will remain northerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  90  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         64  94  64  96 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  98  66  99 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  91  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  91  63  91 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         69  97  66  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
416 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-302130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
416 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated storms will be possible late this afternoon and early
this evening across north central Oklahoma, as well as far southwest
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. Any storm that develops could
produce gusty winds and lightning. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Fire Weather...
Hot temperatures combined with low humidity, breezy winds, and dry
vegetation could lead to Elevated Fire Weather conditions Friday
afternoon into the weekend across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

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