Drought in Oklahoma, April 1 to 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1212 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Currently there is a mid to upper level low sitting over SD/NE/WY.
The FA is under the base of the associated trough which has
suppressed the H85 temperatures today. This will lead to slightly
cooler afternoon temperatures today. The jet associated with
trough is what is leading to windy and gusty winds today.

For today we continue to watch for high winds, low RH, fire
weather conditions, and blowing dust across much of the combined
OK and TX Panhandles. Winds are expected to be worse early today
through at least mid afternoon. As of this writing, the airport
here at Amarillo has been gusting 50 to 57 mph already this
morning. Winds are expected to be quite gusty through about 3 PM.
Then a slow downward trend in the winds will take place during the
late afternoon into evening hours as the stacked jet exits the
area. However, winds will stay on the breezy side through about 9
PM or so before becoming calm. During the late afternoon and
evening, fire weather conditions will still be a concern as RH
values will continue to be low and not recovering to 20 percent
until after midnight.

After midnight tonight winds will become northerly for a short
while around 10 mph. Then, heading into the hours around sunrise
winds may become calm and variable as the pressure gradient
continues to relax. The calm winds going into the early morning
hours combined with clear skies will lead to temperatures
dropping below freezing across much of the north and northwestern
FA. The south to southeastern TX Panhandle may hold on to some
winds around 10 mph a bit longer keeping morning lows above 32
degrees F. Flow aloft becomes more zonal tomorrow afternoon with
surface winds returning to the south, and H85 temperatures start
to increase to 15 to 17 degrees C. This will help temperatures
rise into the upper 60s and mid 70s tomorrow. Tds remain low and
RH values are still expected to fall into the 10-15 percent range
across the western half of the combined Panhandles. A surface
trough is progged to develop over eastern NM/CO into western
portions of the FA as surface winds pick up to the 15 to 20 mph
range. Thankfully, the winds aloft will remain relatively light
limiting the wind gust potential tomorrow. These winds will still
contribute to elevated to critical fire weather conditions at a
as they combine with the low RH. Slightly higher winds could be
present in the western OK Panhandle leading to possible critical
fire weather conditions there.

The surface trough and surface low will keep winds breezy
overnight into Sunday morning. With the H85 temps staying around
15-16 degrees C overnight, winds will help mix the warmer temps
keeping the temps in the 40s for Sunday morning.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Increasing temperatures and prolonged dryness will continue the
fire weather threat through the extended period. Tuesday is
looking to be the worst day as the next upper level system brings
stronger winds aloft to the combined Panhandles after period of
prolonged dryness. This same system will bring in a cold front
Tuesday night with much cooler temperatures progged for Wed and
Thu afternoon. Unfortunately there is no sign of any precipitation
coming with this system.

Very early on Sunday morning, right around sunrise, an H5
shortwave is progged to pass just south of the TX Panhandle. This
shortwave is looking to not have any moisture to work with until
it gets east of the area leaving the Panhandles high and dry. The
one exception is maybe a slight chance of rain for far
southeastern Collingsworth County. Going into the afternoon on
Sunday, a LLTR will set up over portions of eastern CO/NM into
West Texas and the combined Panhandles. H85 temperatures are
progged to increase to around 22 degrees C with this ridge. A
leeside low over SE CO will once again bring breezy 15 to 25 mph
west winds to the area Sunday afternoon. The higher end of this is
looking to be in the southwest TX Panhandle. The downsloping
winds with the LLTR will contribute to afternoon highs reaching
the 80s and also RH values falling into the single digits. This
will continue the concern for fuels drying out more as elevated to
critical fire weather conditions remain through the extended
period.

Sunday night, a weak backdoor cold front brings some slightly
higher Tds to the northeastern portions of the FA with light
northerly winds. This comes about from the surface low making its
way east to southeast across portions of the combined Panhandles.
However, going into Monday this front quickly retreats northeast
and southwest to westerly winds return at the surface. Winds will
be on the breezy to slightly windy side. With the LLTR returning
as well as downsloping winds helping with adiabatic heating,
temps will rise into the 80s once again and RH values will
plummet. Elevated to low end critical fire weather conditions will
be present for the central to western portions of the FA once
again on Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday morning the next upper level system will
move across the Rockies with the base of the H5 trough bringing H5
winds of 100 kts to the northwestern half of the combined
Panhandles. A stack jet will set up over the area, along with
breezy winds behind a Pacific front entering the combined
Panhandles. This front is progged to push the LLTR out of the
Panhandles to the east. This will bring cooler temperatures to the
west and northwestern zones of the FA Tuesday afternoon. However,
the the RH values are still expected to be really low in the
west around 10 percent. This will be do to lower dew points
moving into the area behind the Pacific front. Wide spread
critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday do to the
winds and low RH. Wind highlights are looking like they will be
needed for Tuesday.

An Arctic front will move in from the north to northwest Tuesday
night with that system. Because of this, temperatures are
expected to drop below freezing for much of the area after
several nights of staying above freezing. The northwest may even
fall into the low 20s. Temperatures will continue to be suppressed
Wed afternoon through Thu afternoon with highs only expected to
reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Wind speeds will continue to calm down this morning
and may go light and variable for the most part. The wind will
turn and eventually become south/southwesterly again tomorrow,
and should stay breezy through the night and into Sunday morning.
Lastly, only expecting a few high clouds later today, but overall
expecting plenty of sunshine this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Really low RH values in the single digits to lower teens during
the afternoons through Wed, with maybe upper teens to low twenties
for Thu afternoon. Temperatures will be on the rise starting
tomorrow with afternoon highs expected to reach 80s Sunday and
Monday afternoon as a LLTR sets up. Thankfully on these days there
is not much of a stacked jet to worry about. On Tuesday an upper
level system will bring in a Pacific front that will lead to the
possibility of high winds and high fire danger. Elevated to
critical fire weather conditions will be possibly every day now
through Tuesday afternoon, with Mon and Tue being of greatest
concern. For more information please read the short term and long
term forecast discussions above.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  45  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  68  46  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              67  40  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  73  47  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              74  43  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  73  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               70  43  83  48 /   0   0  10   0
Dalhart TX                 70  38  79  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  69  43  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                74  42  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                69  45  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   69  46  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                70  43  82  48 /   0   0  10   0
Wellington TX              70  43  83  47 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001.

&&

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1039 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1039 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Saturday through Wednesday, especially for central to western
portions of the combined Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions Saturday through
Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1004 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 N TEXLINE             36.41N 103.02W
03/31/2023  M46 MPH          DALLAM             TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH AT 10:24 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:00 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 6:37 PM CDT.

1029 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 SSW PANHANDLE         35.33N 101.39W
03/31/2023  M43 MPH          CARSON             TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH AT 10:29 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 9:49 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 2:45 PM CDT.

1040 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  10 E MIAMI              35.69N 100.46W
03/31/2023  M44 MPH          HEMPHILL           TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH AT 10:40 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:34 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 3:38 PM CDT.

1049 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 NW LAKE MCCLELLAN     35.24N 100.90W
03/31/2023  M47 MPH          GRAY               TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH AT 10:49 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 9:55 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 3:28 PM CDT.

1055 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 NW PALO DURO RESERVOI 36.35N 101.17W
03/31/2023  M45 MPH          HANSFORD           TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH AT 10:55 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:00 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 1:20 PM CDT.

1106 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  8 W LIPSCOMB            36.23N 100.41W
03/31/2023  M49 MPH          LIPSCOMB           TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH AT 11:06 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:45 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 2:15 PM CDT.

1106 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W LIPSCOMB            36.22N 100.41W
03/31/2023  M61 MPH          LIPSCOMB           TX   MESONET

            FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS LOCATION.
            EVENT IS ONGOING.

1116 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  GOODNIGHT               35.03N 101.19W
03/31/2023  M44 MPH          ARMSTRONG          TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH AT 11:16 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 11:00 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 1:55 PM CDT.

1130 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  11 SSW ROMERO           35.58N 103.01W
03/31/2023  M43 MPH          OLDHAM             TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH AT 11:30 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 11:30 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 2:47 PM CDT.

1136 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 SE DUMAS              35.83N 101.93W
03/31/2023  M47 MPH          MOORE              TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH AT 11:36 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:09 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 6:26 PM CDT.

1141 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  4 E VEGA                35.25N 102.36W
03/31/2023  M44 MPH          OLDHAM             TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH AT 11:41 AM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 9:33 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 5:56 PM CDT.

1146 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SE DUMAS              35.83N 101.92W
03/31/2023  M58 MPH          MOORE              TX   MESONET

            FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS LOCATION.
            EVENT IS ONGOING.

1210 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 NNW STINNETT          35.84N 101.45W
03/31/2023  M45 MPH          HUTCHINSON         TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH AT 12:10 PM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:02 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 2:17 PM CDT.

1215 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE HEREFORD          34.86N 102.33W
03/31/2023  M61 MPH          DEAF SMITH         TX   AWOS

            FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS LOCATION.
            EVENT IS ONGOING.

1242 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  7 SSE AMARILLO          35.11N 101.77W
03/31/2023  M44 MPH          RANDALL            TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH AT 12:42 PM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 11:25 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 3:08 PM CDT.

1257 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  11 WNW BOOTLEG          34.89N 102.99W
03/31/2023  M46 MPH          DEAF SMITH         TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH AT 12:57 PM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 9:33 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 1:11 PM CDT.

1257 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE PAMPA             35.54N 100.93W
03/31/2023  M59 MPH          GRAY               TX   MESONET

            FIRST NON-TSTORM WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS
            EVENT. EVENT IS ONGOING.

1258 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 NNE UMBARGER          34.99N 102.08W
03/31/2023  M44 MPH          RANDALL            TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH AT 12:58 PM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:03 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 2:15 PM CDT.

0111 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW DALHART            36.02N 102.55W
03/31/2023  M58 MPH          HARTLEY            TX   ASOS

            FIRST WIND GUST AT THIS SITE. ONGOING WIND
            EVENT.

0112 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 NW HEREFORD           34.84N 102.42W
03/31/2023  M45 MPH          DEAF SMITH         TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH AT 1:12 PM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 10:24 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 2:11 PM CDT.

0135 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  5 ENE HEREFORD          34.86N 102.33W
03/31/2023  M45 MPH          DEAF SMITH         TX   AWOS

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH AT 1:35 PM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 11:35 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 1:55 PM CDT.

0139 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E VEGA                35.24N 102.35W
03/31/2023  M60 MPH          OLDHAM             TX   MESONET

            FIRST WIND GUST REPORT AT THIS SITE. EVENT
            IS ONGOING.

0147 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 W CANYON              34.98N 101.94W
03/31/2023  M42 MPH          RANDALL            TX   MESONET

            PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH AT 1:47 PM
            CDT. FIRST SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH OR
            GREATER AT 11:00 AM CDT WITH THE LAST
            OCCURRING AT 1:35 PM CDT.

0155 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N BORGER              35.70N 101.39W
03/31/2023  M58 MPH          HUTCHINSON         TX   ASOS

            FIRST NON-TSTORM WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS
            EVENT. EVENT IS ONGOING.

0202 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N BORGER              35.70N 101.39W
03/31/2023  M61 MPH          HUTCHINSON         TX   ASOS

            PEAK NON-TSTM WIND GUST OF THE DAY.

0529 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW GUYMON            36.68N 101.51W
03/31/2023  M60 MPH          TEXAS              OK   ASOS

            FIRST WIND GUST REPORT AT THIS LOCATION.

&&