Showers and thunderstorms developed on the afternoon of July 15th along a low level disturbance crossing through the Ohio Valley. Embedded within this cluster of activity, a few storms reached strong to severe levels, and resulted in damaging wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed on the afternoon of July 15th along a low level disturbance crossing through the Ohio Valley. Embedded within this cluster of activity, a few storms reached strong to severe levels, and resulted in damaging wind gusts. As one of those storms passed through Lawrence County, the strong wind gusts resulted in downed trees in Chesapeake and South Point.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 9:33 AM EST, 3 hours earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1033 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system affects the local region today. Typical summer weather with chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon continues into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Saturday... Only minor updates were needed this morning to trim precipitation chances across central West Virginia as the trough is moving east slightly slower than previously expected. As of 620 AM Saturday... Early morning dense fog will gradually dissipate by 8 AM. Some light convection will be possible this morning as a warm front approaches the area. As of 215 AM Saturday... * A surface low pressure system moves across from the west today. * Strong gusts, hail and very heavy downpours possible. A weak surface low pressure system over southern IL, will move east into the OH Valley today. A warm front first arrives with few light showers moving into southeast OH and WV during the morning hours. The low's center and associated cold front arrive this afternoon and evening, enhancing showers and storms. Similar environment than yesterdays, with SBCAPE exceeding 2500 J/Kg, better deep layered shear around 35 knots, and PWATs reaching 2 inches ahead of the cold front. These ingredients will allow for strong to severe updrafts, capable to produce damaging winds and hail, as well as very heavy downpours. SPC highlights a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area. WPC suggests a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across southern half of WV and extreme southwest VA through tonight. For temperatures went slightly lower than NBM, due to sky cover and possible cooling showers or storms. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 80s lowlands, into the mid 70s highest elevations. Another muggy night with temperatures in the upper 60s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s highest elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 207 AM Saturday... Behind Saturday's storm system, a quieter day is expected for much of Sunday with temperatures near to slightly above average for the middle of July. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will still be possible, but without sufficient dynamics and instability, convection is not expected to be widespread and most thunderstorms should be below severe criteria. The Storm Prediction Center only has our area outlooked in a general risk of thunderstorms Sunday, and the Weather Prediction Center does not place us in a risk of excessive rainfall. Dry and tranquil weather will continue into Sunday night with some patchy river valley fog developing late. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 207 AM Saturday... Another 500-mb shortwave will be approaching from the west on Monday, and at the surface, a cold front will also be slowly approaching from the Great Lakes. Models generally show precipitable water values around 1.5-1.75 inches across the middle Ohio Valley ahead of the front. This will lead to the next chance of widespread thunderstorm activity, with the main timing most likely in the late afternoon and evening; although, thunderstorms may persist into the early morning hours of Tuesday in some areas with lingering 500-mb shortwave energy aloft. The Weather Prediction Center currently places the middle Ohio Valley in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, so any thunderstorm could potentially bring flooding downpours. Some models bring the aforementioned front to the middle Ohio Valley by Tuesday with another round of 500-mb shortwave energy approaching from the west. This will likely lead to another elevated chance of thunderstorms bringing flooding downpours, and the Weather Prediction Center also has the region outlooked in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for 12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday. The front is not expected to move much through the middle and latter portions of the work week. With a large ridge of high pressure remaining over the desert southwest through the end of next week, there won't be much of a change in the overall weather pattern for the middle Ohio Valley Wednesday through Friday. Exact details are uncertain at this time, but expect daily shower and thunderstorm chances as rounds of 500-mb energy stream in from the northwest along the outer fringes of the dominant 500-mb ridge. However, if the aforementioned ridge ends up being farther east than the models currently project, this could signal a drier and hotter pattern for the middle Ohio Valley for the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 620 AM Saturday... IFR/LIFR conditions due to dense fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z. Then, VFR conditions will prevail for the most part today. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and affect most terminals mainly this afternoon and evening. This convection will produce brief IFR conditions along their path. Some storms will manage to produce strong gusty winds. Coded VCTS due to uncertainties on whether storms directly hit a terminal or not. VFR/MVFR ceilings will continue after convection diminishes later tonight. Guidance suggests IFR conditions due to low stratus overnight tonight. Winds will be from the south/southwest between 5 and 10 knots, switching to the west/northwest as an area of weak surface low pressure passes by. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing on IFR/LIFR conditions under heavy showers or storms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC NEAR TERM...KH/ARJ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...ARJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 404 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-160815- Dickenson-Buchanan-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam- Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay- Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour- Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette- Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas- Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas- Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph- 404 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and portions of central, northeast, northern, southeast and southern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is a marginal risk for thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and hail. In addition, thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours or repetitive rainfall over the same areas conducive to flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The weather remains unsettled Monday and Tuesday with showers and storms producing heavy downpours and localized flooding issues. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-160815- Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington- Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason- 404 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is a marginal risk for thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and hail. Localized flooding issues may be possible with repetitive showers or storms affecting the same areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The weather remains unsettled Monday and Tuesday with showers and storms producing heavy downpours and localized flooding issues. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
KYZ103-OHZ083-085>087-WVZ005>007-151800-
Boyd KY-Jackson OH-Meigs OH-Gallia OH-Lawrence OH-Mason WV-Wayne WV-
Cabell WV-
128 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Boyd,
central Meigs, Gallia, southeastern Jackson, Lawrence, northwestern
Mason, central Cabell and northern Wayne Counties through 200 PM
EDT...
At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Rio Grande to near Kenova.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Ashland, Ironton, Point Pleasant, Gallipolis, Coal Grove,
Pomeroy, Rio Grande, Chesapeake, Proctorville, Rutland, Cannonsburg,
Barboursville, Kenova, Catlettsburg, New Haven, Ceredo, Mason, South
Point and Waterloo.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 184 and 191.
Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 22.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 8276 3903 8241 3903 8232 3907 8232
3919 8189 3831 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 245DEG 19KT 3895 8230 3837 8262
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
20The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:32 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
One tree was blown down outside of the town of South Point near Fourth Street East.
Outside the town of Chesapeake, a tree was blown down onto State Route 243 near Frys Tack Shop.
Two trees were blown down onto Gateway Big Branch Road and County Road 35 intersection.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1107075, 1107076, 1107077.