Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, September 7, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure aloft becomes established over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys tonight. This system will bring several
periods of showers and thunderstorms to the region through the
weekend. Monday should be drier. Cooler temperatures are also
expected, especially this weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening
hours.

2. Some of storms may have damaging wind gusts and heavy rains.

A long wave trough axis will shift east this afternoon into
Friday. Embedded shortwaves will rotate around the upper trough.
Meanwhile, surface cold front is pushed east as the trough pivots
eastward. As the cold front continues to move east this
afternoon expected showers and thunderstorms to develop along
and ahead of it. Some of the storms can be strong to severe with
damaging winds and heavy rains. With solar heating expect
decent instability and some DCAPE values with drier air aloft
supporting a few stronger downdrafts. The prime window is 20z
to 03z for convection. With the loss of solar heating expected
convection to diminish this evening into tonight.

Overnight into Friday morning, expect low stratus to move in/develop
over the mountains and foothills, with some dense fog possible where
it clears out and rained hard. Low temperatures will range from mid
50s in the mountains to the upper 60s in the Piedmont. For Friday,
the combination of forcing with the broad trough, convergence along
the front, combined with embedded shortwaves will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms can be
strong to severe with damaging winds and heavy rains. High
temperatures Friday will vary from the upper 60s in the mountains to
the upper 80s in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain and slow moving storms over the weekend.
2. Severe storm potential for parts of the region Friday night.

A stubborn area of troughing will be settled over most of the
eastern CONUS by Friday night and will remain there through the
weekend. This upper forcing will contribute to a generally unsettled
weather pattern in this period. A stationary front just east of our
area in the VA Piedmont and Tidewater will drive surface convergence
as well. Storm motion around this front will be slow, and ensemble
guidance indicates a high likelihood of PWATs >1.5" throughout the
region. This setup, along with skinny CAPE profiles in model
soundings, points towards a threat of slow moving storms with high
rainfall rates which could lead to localized flash flooding.
Training along or near the boundary would also increase this threat.

The above scenario applies almost categorically to both Saturday and
Sunday, with the timing focused around each afternoon. However, some
shortwaves rotating around the trough could spark stronger storms at
other parts of the day, as the timing of these waves is uncertain.

Temperatures will be cooler after the front's passage Friday, and
pervasive cloud cover/rain showers preventing insolation for much of
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Less activity to start the week.
2. Another system comes by the second half of next week.

Troughing fades by Monday, and the boundary to our east moves out
into the Atlantic. After losing the main two sources of forcing from
over the weekend, Monday and Tuesday will be quieter and
precipitation coverage will be reduced. By Wednesday another area of
troughing will begin to intensify over the Great Lakes and will have
an associated cold front as well. This system will bring about more
showers and storms for the second half of the week. Details on
impacts and timing are hazy this far out, but there is good
confidence in another front moving through the area late next week.
Temperatures will be roughly around normal during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions with scattered MVFR conditions in convection
expected this afternoon into tonight. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into tonight along and
ahead of a cold front moving eastward.

While thunderstorms gradually shift east and diminish tonight,
low clouds and fog will develop overnight into Friday morning.
Clouds cover may hinder fog development overnight. Pockets of
fog and low clouds will burn off by 14z Friday morning.

Isolated to scattered MVFR/IFR showers and Thunderstorms are
possible Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Average confidence in winds, ceilings and visibility; lower
confidence for timing of convection.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday evening through Sunday: Periods of MVFR to IFR
visibility possible due to ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA with moderate to
heavy rain, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Monday
we transition to drier weather with VFR expected, although an
isolated afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible for the
mountains terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible Tuesday with Sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
138 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-081745-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
138 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
as a cold front nears the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday afternoon and
evening as a cold front crosses the area. Damaging wind gusts will
be
the main threat, along with locally heavy rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rainfall to the
area for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-081745-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
138 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
as a cold front nears the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern, along with locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday afternoon and
evening as a cold front crosses the area. Damaging wind gusts will
be
the main threat, along with locally heavy rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rainfall to the
area for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

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