An advancing cold front along the Ohio and Tennessee valleys combined with a Piedmont trough over western North Carolina and a very moist atmosphere to produce widely isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A swath of severe thunderstorms developed over the northern Coastal Plain in Halifax County, producing damaging straight-line winds and downed trees.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
An advancing cold front along the Ohio and Tennessee valleys combined with a Piedmont trough over western North Carolina and a very moist atmosphere to produce widely isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A swath of severe thunderstorms developed over the northern Coastal Plain in Halifax County, producing damaging straight-line winds and downed trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 11:30 AM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1230 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A lee trough was located across the western Piedmont of VA and the Carolinas. A weakening cold front will move into the region from the northwest on Tuesday. A very hot and humid air mass across the area will moderate slightly through the work week. A series of upper level disturbances will cross the region through mid week, producing daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1055 AM Monday... ...Continued hot and humid with strong to severe storms possible... The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure well out in the western Atlantic. A weak surface low was noted across western NY with a weak cold front extending to the southwest across the OH Valley into the TN Valley. A lee surface trough was noted across the western Piedmont of VA and the Carolinas. West of the trough and with some added elevation dew points are in the upper 60s to around 70 in the Triad. Elsewhere dew points are steamy if not nasty in the mid and upper 70s. At 14Z dew points of 77 were observed at KFAY, KGSB and KJNX. KCTZ, where the dew point at times is a touch higher then nearby locations, was reporting a dew point of 81. Further aloft the well established upper level ridge was located across FL with a well defined trough moving across the eastern Great Lakes. This trough is forecast to shear eastward with the best forcing for ascent to move across New England while heights across NC are forecast to be unchanged through tonight. with highs forecast to climb well into the 90s and dew points east of the lee trough forecast to remain in the lower to mid 70s into the afternoon, the air mass across central NC is forecast to become strongly unstable with MLCAPE values ranging to between 1500 and 3000 J/Kg this afternoon. Mid level lapse rates may be a touch less favorable than previous days with LR of a little over 6 deg C/km. DCAPE values will range from around 1000 acrHartfieldoss the Coastal Plain and to around 800 across the northwest Piedmont supporting a wind threat with damaging downburst winds. Bulk shear values in the 0-6km layer will range around 20 to 25 kts, perhaps a little more toward VA supporting some storm organization into clusters and line segments. SPC has all of central NC outlined with a slight risk of severe weather, again with a primary risk of damaging wind gusts. CAMS provide varied solutions for convective initiation and evolution for the next 24 hours but a general consensus suggests that the area of weak and broken convection moving into the NC mountains this morning will reorganize and redevelop early this afternoon across the NC Foothills and then spread east, likely reaching the Triad between 2 and 5pm with convection spreading east in a line or clusters. Other convection may fire near the coast and Sandhills. The 12Z HRW NSSL or 12Z HRW ARW may capture this pattern best with the HRRR continuing to struggle in this environment, likely from over mixing the BL. The main convective features will shift east with time this afternoon and evening with the bulk of the convection waning and clearing the area by 8 to 10pm. With the cyclonic flow aloft and todays convection not expected to be widespread, lingering pockets of instability could support isolated convection into the overnight. The airmass across central NC is similar if not a touch warmer this morning compared to yesterday. The 12Z RAOB at GSO had a 1000-850mb thickness of 1422m this morning compared to 1419m yesterday. Morning lows ranged in the mid and even upper 70s, so temps already have a head start today. In addition, the air mass and soils will already be primed with now multiple hot days with limited precipitation. Expect highs today to be similar if not a degree or two warmer than on Sunday. The only exception will be where convection fires early to cut off max heating. High temperatures should again reach well into the 90s with 93 at KGSO (which could be cooler if storms arrive early enough), 97 at KRDU and 96 at KFAY. With surface dewpoints holding well into the 70s, afternoon head index values will reach the 105-109 range over much of the area outside of the Triad and near the VA border. A heat advisory remains in effect through 800 pm. Lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 70s. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Monday... The Fourth of July will see a lowered severe threat and slightly lower temps over all but the SE. As the surface trough settles over our E and S by late in the day, extending from the N Coastal Plain SW and W through the S Piedmont, storm chances will become more focused across our S and SE, with lower pops in the N. The trailing end of the weakening and broadening shortwave trough will shift through central NC Tue, causing a slight cyclonic curvature and a veering of mid level winds to more westerly, with decreasing speeds. 850 mb flow will also become gently cyclonic while decelerating to just 5-15 kts. Models depict the 2" PW swath shifting to coastal and far southern NC, with lowering PW across the N Piedmont. Will have pops peaking at isolated in these northern sections, ranging to 35- 50% across much of the E Coastal Plain and our southern tier of counties, where MUCAPE will be 1500-2500 J/kg. Severe threat should be lower with less heating and reduced deep layer shear. But based on expected mean steering flow running roughly parallel to the surface boundary along with a lower cell motion, there may be some training leading to repeated passage of storms or storm clusters and heavy rain rates, focused on the far S Piedmont, the Sandhills, and into the central and southern Coastal Plain. Pops should peak in the afternoon through mid evening, before dwindling and pushing to our east overnight. Highs should again be in the low-mid 90s, but slightly lower dewpoints pushing into the N and W will mean slightly lower heat indices over all but the SE sections. Another heat advisory may be needed for our SE. Lows 68-75. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 309 AM Saturday... Upper pattern through the extended: A deepening mid-level trough will dig into central Canada/the upper Midwest through midweek. Downstream of this feature, central NC will remain wedged between an exiting trough to the northeast and a deamplifying offshore mid- level ridge. This will promote generally light wswly flow aloft over central NC through much of the extended period. A strong, deeper trough and associated lead short waves may then push through the mid-Atlantic Friday through Monday. At the sfc, a weak, stalled boundary will remain over central NC Wednesday/Thursday before fizzling out into Friday. Enhanced moisture flux via wswly flow aloft will help to maintain seasonably moist conditions across central NC with dew points in the 70s. As such, diurnal showers and storms will be possible each day through the extended period. Beyond Thursday, models have come into a bit better agreement depicting the arrival of better forcing aloft associated with an upper trough traversing the mid-Atlantic this weekend. Thus, higher coverage in showers/storms look possible ahead of and along a sfc cold front that will push into our area sometime in the Friday/Saturday period. Given some lingering uncertainty wrt to timing, decided to maintain high chance POPs in this time period peaking each afternoon/evening. Hartfield Temperature wise, we'll continue to see hot daytime max temps in the lower 90s Tuesday through Friday. A brief "cool" off into the upper 80s might be possible next weekend depending on the eventual evolution of the aforementioned upper trough/sfc cold front. Warm and muggy conditions are expected each night as lows stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight dew points in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1230 PM Monday... 24 hour TAF Period: Fair weather with VFR conditions across central NC early this afternoon will give way to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon. Still some uncertainty in how convection will develop and evolve today but a cluster or line of storms is apt to develop in the NC Foothills and then push into the KGSO and KINT terminals between 18 and 22Z and then spread east toward KRDU and KRWI between 20 and 00Z. Another cluster of storms may move across the KFAY terminals between 20 and 00Z as well. Outside of convection, hazy skies are expected with developing SCT-BKN clouds at 4-5kft and BKN upper level clouds at 15-25kft. While the more widespread convection will decrease in coverage and shift east during the evening, an isolated shower or storm is possible into the overnight. There is a small chance of a little stratus developing overnight with bases of 2-3kft, mainly in the western Piedmont. Tuesday should feature mainly VFR conditions in the morning with the potential for widely scattered afternoon showers and storms although storm coverage may be less than previous days and focused across the south. Southwest winds today will average between 8 and 12kts although much stronger in thunderstorms with a light southwest wind at 5kts or less tonight. Winds will become westerly at 5 to 10kts on Tuesday. Looking beyond 18Z Tuesday, scattered showers and storms are again possible late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night with the main risk across the south. A warm and humid regime will continue into the weekend with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms along with some late night/early morning fog and stratus. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ010-011- 024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...Blaes
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 438 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 NCZ007>009-021>023-038-039-041000- Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph- 438 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight, with primary threats of damaging straight line wind gusts over 60 mph and large hail an inch or greater in diameter. The threat will be greatest between 3 PM and 11 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today into tonight. NCZ010-011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-041000- Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 438 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. In addition, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight, with primary threats of damaging straight line wind gusts over 60 mph and large hail an inch or greater in diameter. The threat will be greatest between 3 PM and 11 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Clusters of showers and storms with heavy downpours are expected Tuesday across southern and eastern North Carolina. Storms may also pass repeatedly over the same areas, leading to an increased threat of minor flooding and rapid rises on area creeks and streams Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today into tonight. GIH
Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
919 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0352 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Drewry 36.45N 78.30W
07/02/2023 Warren NC 911 Call Center
Multiple trees down.
0348 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SE Tungsten 36.49N 78.42W
07/02/2023 Vance NC 911 Call Center
Numerous reports of trees and power lines
down throughout northern Vance County,
including around Townsville.
0352 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NNW Middleburg 36.41N 78.33W
07/02/2023 Vance NC Utility Company
Power outage caused by fallen trees on
equipment.
0323 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ENE Roxboro 36.42N 78.93W
07/02/2023 Person NC 911 Call Center
Trees down on Gravatte Road and on Halifax
Roads just northeast of Roxboro.
0330 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 W Kerr Lake 36.53N 78.67W
07/02/2023 Granville NC 911 Call Center
Several trees down in northwestern Granville
County.
0531 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ENE Leggett 36.01N 77.53W
07/02/2023 Edgecombe NC Trained Spotter
Trees down on NC 97.
&&The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:35 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency manager reported straight-line wind damage, resulting in numerous downed trees and damage to homes and roofs. The location of damage was along Wallace Fork Rd and along Highway 125 near Weldon.
Numerous reports of trees down across Halifax County. Most of the damage reports came out of Enfield and the Scotland Neck area.
A storm caused damage to the roof of a house along Dickens Wildwood Rd.
Multiple trees were reported down along Mary Chapel Rd.
Trees were reported down along Highway 258.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105913, 1105912, 1105916, 1105914, 1105915.