Scattered thunderstorms and storm clusters developed across western North Carolina throughout the afternoon and evening. A few of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms and storm clusters developed across western North Carolina throughout the afternoon and evening. A few of the storms produced brief damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 24, 12:35 PM EST, 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
135 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The heat will build through the end of the week as a large
upper high over the Plains continues to control our weather from
afar. High temperatures may flirt with records Friday and Saturday,
although there is much uncertainty about how much thunderstorm
activity will affect that. A surface cold front is expected to drop
south across the region late Saturday to cool us down for the early
part of next week, while providing a focus for showers and storms
from Sunday through Tuesday with the front settling just south of
our area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1007 AM EDT Thursday: No major changes were made with
this update pending the arrival of the 12z guidance suite.
The CAMs are getting increasingly restless with this afternoon's
convection, yet it remains difficult to pin down how things will
unfold. The NSSL-WRF, currently performing the best upstream,
is an outlier for the NC Piedmont's convective prospects this
afternoon, depicting rapid propagation of a semi-organized line
of cells into the CWA by mid-afternoon. Other CAMs depict much
later evening timing...and keep the notable activity confined
to the I-77 corridor. Concerningly, there's decent agreement in
forecast soundings on enough DCAPE to make an outside SVR threat
seem possible wherever convection ultimately sets up.
Otherwise, a 596 dam anticyclone at 500 mb is finally beginning to
weaken slightly, which is resulting in our area potentially getting
into an MCS track around the eastern periphery of the upper high
(basically what's discussed above). A gradient of strong instability
can be seen roughly along the western slopes of the central and
southern Appalachians on the Mesoanalysis page. A slight increase
in west to northwesterly 850 mb flow will help bring the unstable
air east across the mountains and even into the adjacent foothills
thru the day. For now, did not edit the slight chc PoPs coming in
from the north this aftn and spreading along the I-77 corridor into
early...but this will likely require more tweaks this afternoon as
fresh guidance comes in. The high terrain looks to become uncapped
today for the first time in well over a week. So isolated to widely
scattered convection is expected there with higher confidence. The
CAMs are in agreement on that. However, many of the CAMs have
some of that mountain convection drift south into the Upstate
and NE GA. Confidence is low on that due to strong CIN still seen
on fcst soundings. But outflows may be strong enough to overcome
some of it for at least a slight chc of a storm or two making it
to the I-85 corridor. With mostly sunny skies and a very subtle
downslope low-level flow, expect temps to be a category or two
warmer than yesterday, a few deg above normal. Dewpts are still
recovering in the 60s, so heat index values should stay mainly in
the 90s to around 100.
The latest CAMs show another MCS possibly developing to our north,
but generally keep it out of our area. The 00z ARW has it just
about to enter the Northern Mountains by 12z Friday, but rapidly
weakening as it approaches For now, think diurnal convection should
wane quickly this evening, and the overnight will be quiet. Expect
mountain valley fog and patchy fog east of the mountains, assuming
skies clear. Lows a couple categories above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM Thursday: The last two days of the week still
have the potential for record-breaking high temps and apparent
temps up into the Heat Advisory range, but there remains much
lingering uncertainty over how convective details could derail
the forecast. Both days. Confidence is better for Friday as the
slowly-retrograding upper anticyclone over the srn Plains re-exerts
its influence aloft and keeps a light westerly downslope flow and
holds onto a subsidence inversion into the late afternoon. This
might just be enough to hold the lid on any convection until after
peak heating. However, some of the CAMs suggest an MCS making
a run at us from the north in the mid/late afternoon, but that
again could develop/arrive after peak heating. Am wary about the
record high temp fcst from the model blend as it has been too warm
in several instances this season, so a degree or two was shaved
off here and there, but that still keeps the high temp fcst right
around records. Think the dewpoint is more likely to stay in the
upper 60s as well, so the resulting heat index stays mostly in the
100-105 range east of the mtns...worthy of continuing to mention in
the HWO...but by no means suggesting a certain Heat Advisory for
anywhere. Friday night should be above normal on low temps. Which
brings us to Saturday, which is fraught with more uncertainty. Model
guidance continues to show temps nearly as warm as Friday, but there
is a much better chance that we will have a blanket of convective
debris cloudiness well into the day from an overnight MCS that
much of the guidance develops Friday night/early Saturday over the
Midwest/lower OH Valley region. Futhermore, forecast soundings show
the subsidence inversion mixing out in the afternoon, which should
allow for storms to develop across the region ahead of a frontal
boundary dropping down from the north late in the day. Thus, we
undercut the guidance blend by a few degrees on the high temps and
keep the apparent temps below 105 across the region. Some sort of
weakly-organized pulse severe thunderstorm threat is anticipated
in the afternoon/evening. Cooler air will not arrive behind the
weak boundary until later in the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 243 AM Thursday: Details are still murky, but it would
appear that going into early next week, we will have a situation
more conducive to some rainfall across the region. By Sunday,
we should be more or less under the influence of a broad cyclonic
flow aloft that opens us back up to the MCS track, at least for one
day. That situation is short-lived as there is good agreement that
an upper trof axis will gradually amplify to our west on Monday
and into Tuesday, which will provide a favorable environment for
convective precip along an old boundary draped across the area
east of the mtns. Precip probs remain above climo all three days,
with likely showers and storms across most of the fcst area during
the diurnal peak. Confidence is not great, and this is out there on
Days 4-6, but it is worth noting that we are entering into the time
of year when flash flooding becomes more of a concern than pulse
severe storms. The operational GFS raises the precipitable water
up to around the climatological maximum east of the mtns early
in the week, so some of the ingredients might be collecting. So,
in spite of the run of dry weather over the last week-10 days,
the Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is not disputed in the
Day 4/Day 5. As for temps, most traces of anything wedge-like
have been run out of the model solutions for early in the week,
so the fcst continues to adjust upward. Sunday looks about normal,
but Monday and Tuesday are more likely to stay on the cool side of
normal because of the widespread clouds and precip threat. Lots
of uncertainty by Wednesday as it will depend on the passage of
the upper trof axis, which could bring a dry air mass in from
the NW/N as high pressure moves past. For now, the blend holds
onto low chance precip and below normal temps. All bets are off,
though, given the operational ECMWF and its on-again-off-again
flirtation with something of a tropical-ish low coming out of the
eastern Gulf and toward the Carolinas at the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The forecast remains a challenge even within
the critical TAF period, as convection allowing models struggle
to come to a consensus on this afternoon's prospects for thunder.
There is reasonable agreement that a cluster of storms will develop
in the next few hours along the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment
as predicted earlier. Still some question over coverage, given
how capped the atmosphere still is in the Upstate, so went with
VCSH at the Upstate sites for the time being. There's now better
support for a band of SHRA or TS developing along the I-77 corridor;
however, it'll be past peak heating and so most of the CAMs don't
produce enough instability for good confidence on actual thunder
occuring at KCLT. Went with a potentially too-aggressive TEMPO for
TS from 00z to 22z, which reflects the decent timing agreement.
At any rate, it'll clear up before midnight, and give way to
mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Expect another
round of mountain valley fog to impact KAVL...with slightly higher
dewpoints supporting better potential than we saw this morning.
Still anticipate dry weather tomorrow, with little expectation
for any convection.
Outlook: Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the weekend, associated with a cold front. Mountain
valley fog and low stratus will be likely around daybreak each
morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 1998 65 1908 69 2020 50 1952
1936 1930
1925
KCLT 98 1943 71 1927 75 1903 56 1952
1908 1880
KGSP 98 1943 72 1929 73 2000 51 1888
1968
RECORDS FOR 08-26
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1943 64 1879 69 1995 49 1952
1917
KCLT 100 1954 65 1908 76 1903 55 1942
KGSP 100 1943 70 1902 75 1943 55 1917
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MPR
CLIMATE...GSPHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 544 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ101>103- 250945- Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe- Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains- Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- 544 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast Georgia, North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the mountains and foothills this afternoon. Any storms that develop may have strong wind gusts and cloud-to-ground lightning. The storm threat will subside around sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-SCZ008>014- 019-104>109-250945- Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan- Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville- Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg- Southern Spartanburg- 544 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this evening across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Any storms that develop may have gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning. The storm threat will end by midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to climb up to near record high values on Friday afternoon, with upper 90s common east of the mountains. A slight increase in humidity may push the apparent temperature into the 100 to 105 range in the afternoon in some locations. A Heat Advisory might be needed if the forecast remains unchanged. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
NCZ048-052-053-241830-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Madison NC-
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Madison, northeastern Haywood and southwestern Buncombe Counties
through 230 PM EDT...
At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Waynesville, or 9 miles north of Clyde, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Woodfin, Canton, Leicester, Clyde, Luck, Canto, Fines Creek and
Candler.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3568 8301 3578 8288 3563 8257 3543 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 306DEG 11KT 3566 8288
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
NCZ052-059-063-064-SCZ101-102-241845-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
153 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Transylvania, southeastern Jackson, southern Haywood, northwestern
Pickens and north central Oconee Counties through 245 PM EDT...
At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Sylva, or 8 miles northwest of Lake Toxaway,
moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Cashiers, B.R. Parkway-Black
Balsam To Mount Pisgah, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area,
Black Balsam Area, Lake Jocassee, Jocassee Gorges and Tuckasegee.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3531 8313 3538 8294 3509 8273 3508 8274
3508 8275 3507 8275 3507 8277 3506 8276
3497 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 336DEG 16KT 3524 8301
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JPTThe Greer radar (KGSP), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:21 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported a power line blown down and a tree down across Blue Ridge Rd.
Emergency manager and spotter reported multiple trees blown down throughout Salisbury and vicinity. Part of one tree fell on a home and other trees fell across roads.
Emergency manager reported quarter size hail on Lincolnton Rd.
Public reported (via Social Media) a tree blown down on a vehicle in Faith.
County comms and law enforcement reported around 20 trees blown down from the south side of Concord to west of Mount Pleasant.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1136941, 1136942, 1136945, 1136943, 1136944.