Flash Flooding and Hail in New Mexico, October 2, 2023

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-031630-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 /1024 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a medium risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening,
mainly across Southeast New Mexico and adjacent parts of West Texas.
Any severe storms that do develop may be accompanied by large hail,
damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.  Heavy rainfall may also
result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a medium risk of severe storms late Tuesday afternoon and
early evening, mainly across West Texas.  Any severe storms that do
develop may be accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, and an
isolated tornado.  Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

There is a low risk of severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening,
mainly across the Western Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin. Any
severe storms that do develop may be accompanied by large hail and
damaging winds.  Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1253 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

NMZ028-021945-
Eddy County Plains NM-
1253 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM MDT...

At 1253 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Brantley Lake State Park, or 17 miles west of
Carlsbad, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Carlsbad North, Brantley Lake State Park, and Living Desert
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 10448 3237 10472 3271 10465 3246 10421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 222DEG 12KT 3240 10454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

88