Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in New Mexico, May 24 to 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023

Once again, shower and thunderstorm activity will be concentrated
over northeastern to east central New Mexico this afternoon and
into the early evening with a few storms possibly turning strong
to severe with heavy downpours, large hail and damaging winds.
Temperatures will be slightly below average in much of eastern New
Mexico where clouds and storms will be found, but more seasonable
readings are expected into most of central and western areas of
the state. From Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend, daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected in eastern New
Mexico, and many will have the capability of turning strong to
severe each day. Meanwhile, western and portions of central New
Mexico will remain breezy, warm and dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023

Thunderstorm outflow has kicked a boundary back westward into the
Rio Grande Valley overnight, which has risen dewpoints back into the
40s from Santa Fe southward to Socorro. Another round of patchy low
clouds, mist, and fog has also developed over far northeastern NM
into the OK and TX Panhandles. The big question regarding today's
forecast is where the dryline is going to set up. Given how far west
the aforementioned boundary made it and how strongly is has pushed
through the gaps of the central mountain chain, have leaned the
forecast to the NAM solution. This features the moisture mixing out
of the Rio Grande Valley, delayed convective updrafts along the
dryline in the eastern plains, and more robust thunderstorm
initiation focused over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Hi-res CAMs
also seem to be in fair agreement that the there will be less
forcing along the dryline south of I-40 as it will be more squarely
beneath an upper ridge. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains however, will
have better upper level forcing and a southeasterly upslope flow
component along the east facing slopes. Steering flow will take
storms east off the Sangre de Cristo's during the afternoon period
where cells will gradually encounter higher instability in the form
of 1500 to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE by the TX border. Stronger shear
aloft along the northern fringe of the upper high will favor chances
for isolated to scattered strong to severe storms developing over
Colfax, Mora, Harding, and Union Counties this afternoon. Frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail, and severe winds will be the
main hazards. These cells will eventually track east to southeast
into Quay and Curry Counties during the evening period. While there
will be less bulk shear in this area, higher instability will favor
strong updrafts capable of producing large hail.

Storms last longest over east-central NM past midnight before
steadily tapering off into Thursday morning. Another outflow
boundary gets kicked back west bringing moisture trying to wash back
into the Rio Grande Valley, but with less push than last night's
east canyon wind. Thursday will again see afternoon storms favoring
the east slopes of the central mountain chain and dryline over the
central highlands. Storms will track east to northeastward with some
capable of producing large hail and severe winds again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023

The dryline is modeled to only make a slight westward advancement
Thursday night, but if evening convection sustains itself
overnight as some deterministic models indicate, then mesoscale
cold pools may assist and give it a nudge farther west. The trough
aloft will remain upstream of NM over the Great Basin, keeping
moderate (15-25 kt at 700 mb) southwesterly flow aloft over our
forecast area. This will keep better kinematic and shear profiles
for strong to severe storms in the moist sector east of the
dryline while western zones remain breezy, dry and warm. The
moisture gradient will be a typical, but still impressive one,
ranging from single digit (F) dewpoints in western NM to low 60's
in eastern zones. Temperatures will stay slightly below average in
eastern zones and near climatology in western and central zones.

The Great Basin trough begins to deteriorate into Saturday,
shedding vorticity lobes into the northern Rockies while a weaker
shortwave rounds south of the Four Corners and pivots
northeastward. There is much uncertainty with this latter
perturbation, but it could be a forcing mechanism to assist storm
development in an environment that is otherwise very similar to
that of Friday. Mid 50's dewpoints in eastern NM will yield
healthy SBCAPE, and sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear of at least 30 to
40 kt will coincide along with some boundary layer veering of the
winds, all of which will keep the strong to severe thunderstorm
risk going in eastern zones Saturday.

Into Sunday another trough will quickly slip into tracks of its
predecessor over CA/NV while a separate shortwave lifts
northeastward out of Sonora. The orientation of these
perturbations will likely cause winds aloft to weaken some over
NM, and it is difficult to ascertain how much lift might be
generated from the Sonora wave. Aside from the immediate vicinity
of this wave, shear profiles would likely weaken, limiting the
severe threat some. There are many details that will need to be
hashed out before then, but suffice it to say storms will again be
possible in the moist sector east of the dryline (somewhere near
and parallel to the central mountain chain), albeit with less
coverage.

Storm coverage could dwindle on Memorial Day and shift farther
east/northeast if the dryline advances that direction as
advertised. This will depend on the placement and track of the
aforementioned CA/NV trough that will likely cut off into a low by
Monday. Much uncertainty remains with the fate of this feature and
the downstream blocking (rex block) pattern over the eastern
states, but consensus is leaning toward less storms with coverage
still favoring northeastern NM Monday and into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except at
KLVS, KTCC and KROW where deterioration to at least MVFR is
forecast overnight with the development and lowering of a low
stratus deck. MVFR conditions are also possible in/near
convection this afternoon at KLVS, with IFR conditions possible at
KTCC early this evening. Large hail and strong/damaging wind
gusts at possible at KTCC late this afternoon and evening, but not
included in TAF due to lower forecast confidence on exact
location as of 18Z. Outflow from storms to the east will hit KSAF
and KABQ later this evening, but gusts are forecast to remain
below Airport Weather Warning threshold at KABQ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed May 24 2023

Increasing dry southwesterly winds will continue a dynamic of dry
and elevated to locally critical fire weather across western NM,
with afternoon storms developing along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain and/or dryline through eastern NM. Some
storms will become strong to severe producing frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning, large hail, and severe winds across the eastern
plains. Thunderstorm outflow will kick moisture back westward each
night toward the central mountain chain or seeping into the Rio
Grande Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  79  42  77  42 /  30   5  10   5
Cuba............................  78  48  76  47 /  10   5  10   5
Gallup..........................  80  41  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  77  45  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  82  42  81  42 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  46  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  81  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  78  47  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  83  44  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  50  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  72  41  70  40 /  40  10  20  10
Los Alamos......................  76  52  75  54 /  20  10  20  10
Pecos...........................  75  49  74  49 /  40  30  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  70  46  70  44 /  50  30  40  20
Red River.......................  65  40  65  39 /  60  30  50  30
Angel Fire......................  66  39  68  34 /  60  40  50  40
Taos............................  76  44  76  43 /  40  20  30  10
Mora............................  70  45  71  45 /  50  30  50  40
Espanola........................  84  47  82  52 /  30  10  20  10
Santa Fe........................  78  52  76  53 /  30  20  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  81  51  80  51 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  57  84  58 /   5   5  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  56  86  60 /   5   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  52  87  55 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  55  85  56 /   5   0   5   5
Belen...........................  88  50  88  54 /   0   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  88  54  86  56 /   5   5  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  88  50  88  53 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  88  55  86  56 /   5   5  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  88  49  88  54 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  84  55  83  55 /   5   5  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  86  55  85  56 /   5   5   5   5
Socorro.........................  90  55  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  50  76  51 /   5  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  80  51  79  52 /   5   5  10  10
Edgewood........................  79  48  79  48 /  10  10  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  48  80  47 /  10  10  20  10
Clines Corners..................  76  50  75  49 /  20  20  40  20
Mountainair.....................  81  48  80  49 /   5   0  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  81  47  80  51 /   5   0  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  86  57  85  56 /   5   0  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  79  51  76  46 /  10   5  20  20
Capulin.........................  70  47  70  49 /  70  50  40  40
Raton...........................  71  48  74  49 /  70  40  40  30
Springer........................  74  50  76  50 /  70  40  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  72  50  73  48 /  60  30  50  40
Clayton.........................  73  54  74  54 /  70  70  40  50
Roy.............................  72  52  73  52 /  70  60  40  50
Conchas.........................  80  57  80  56 /  50  60  30  50
Santa Rosa......................  80  57  79  54 /  40  50  40  40
Tucumcari.......................  80  56  80  56 /  40  80  20  50
Clovis..........................  75  57  77  57 /  30  60  30  40
Portales........................  77  58  78  58 /  20  60  20  40
Fort Sumner.....................  84  58  82  57 /  30  60  30  40
Roswell.........................  93  64  86  63 /  10  20  40  30
Picacho.........................  87  55  80  54 /  20  10  40  20
Elk.............................  87  52  80  50 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11