Continued large-scale troughing and a weak disturbance resulted in strong to severe thunderstorms along the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Continued large-scale troughing and a weak disturbance resulted in strong to severe thunderstorms along the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 1:06 PM MST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 306 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 As a shortwave departs into east-central Texas Showers and thunderstorms have departed the southeastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos after providing some good rainfall this morning. Remnant cloud cover from this precipitation will keep portions of the Permian Basin in the upper 70s today and may limit storm potential for the central Basin this afternoon. Areas that are more clear (northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the western high terrain) have received more insolation and thus, more instability with highs in the 80s. A few showers and thunderstorms have already popped up around the eastern Davis Mountains/western Stockton Plateau and northern Lea County. Plenty of agitated cumulus are present across northern Lea and Gaines County as an MCV spins into the Texas Panhandle. The Davis/Stockton Plateau zone's chances for storms today are limited to the early-mid afternoon whereas portions of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin could see some scattered thunderstorms in the mid/late afternoon through the early evening hours. Very limited shear keeps severe concerns low but slower storm motions and above average PWATs raises concerns for localized areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and across low water crossings of rural roads. Any lingering storms will fizzle out or lift into Lubbock's area in the late evening to midnight time frame. Lows tonight stay near average in the 50s and low 60s. Lee troughing sets up Monday afternoon around the TX/NM state line, stretching into the Big Bend. Between ample solar insolation and persistent southeasterly surface flow keeping moisture in place, roughly 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE becomes available. With this, scattered thunderstorms are possible across the eastern 2/3 of the area for the afternoon and early evening. Bulk shear remains on the low side again tomorrow, but 20-30kts (which may be enhanced by outflow from other storms) may be enough to still support storm longevity and a few isolated severe storms. Main concerns from any severe storms will be strong winds and perhaps some large hail. Storm activity decreases significantly after sunset. High temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the upper 80s for most with 90s along the river valleys. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 The long-term forecast will be dominated by weak upper ridging over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Thicknesses will increase through Tuesday, which will be perhaps the warmest day this forecast. Even so, abundant low-level moisture and high soil moisture will mitigate highs, and Tuesday afternoon temperatures should come in only ~ 3-5F above normal. Thicknesses come down a little Wednesday, and highs should plateau the rest of the week closer to normal. A weak dryline is forecast Tuesday afternoon, w/convection possible over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Deep- layer shear along the dryline will result in a chance of severe storms there. Otherwise, a drying trend is expected under the ridge, confining convective chances to the Davis Mountains, northern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains through Friday evening. Grids stay dry thereafter. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 Low clouds have largely cleared out across the region early this afternoon, leaving VFR conditions for all sites. Bubbling cumulus is expected across the area with afternoon thunderstorms possible mostly across FST, HOB, and INK. Limited confidence in timing and exact location precludes mention in TAF but will amend as necessary should confidence increase. Winds remain generally light out of the southeast throughout the period. MAF may see MVFR ceilings later tonight with low clouds moving in, but probabilities in this occurring aren't very great. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 88 61 93 / 10 20 20 10 Carlsbad 58 92 58 94 / 20 10 10 0 Dryden 63 89 62 92 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 61 92 62 94 / 10 30 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 60 85 62 88 / 20 20 10 0 Hobbs 56 90 56 92 / 40 10 10 0 Marfa 51 85 51 87 / 10 30 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 60 90 61 93 / 10 20 20 10 Odessa 61 90 63 93 / 10 20 20 0 Wink 60 93 60 97 / 10 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...16
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 131 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-221845- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 131 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023 /1231 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly over the higher terrain. Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall, which mat result in localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a slight risk of severe storms Monday afternoon and evening, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Any severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding. There is a marginal risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains. Any severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland 44
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023
NMZ028-212045-
Eddy County Plains NM-
205 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Eddy
County through 245 PM MDT...
At 205 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of Seven Rivers Airport, or 23 miles west of
Carlsbad, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Brantley Lake State Park and Carlsbad Caverns National Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3241 10474 3257 10465 3257 10429 3216 10448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 298DEG 11KT 3246 10463
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
91Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023
NMZ028-212130-
Eddy County Plains NM-
242 PM MDT Sun May 21 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Eddy
County through 330 PM MDT...
At 242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Whites City, or 16 miles west of Carlsbad, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Whites City, Carlsbad Caverns National Park and Cavern City
Air Terminal.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3235 10458 3248 10449 3233 10415 3207 10442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 318DEG 13KT 3236 10451
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
91The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 184 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:16 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Measured severe winds with a vehicle-mounted anemometer.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1100531.